January 2019 Discussion II

[weathafella]

I’ve lost interest...     see you all at 0z...

[wxeyeNH]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still plenty of time, but I'm a straight shooter....I am frustrated right now. I don't like to keep shoveling BS in the face of reality.  Not ready to declare any outcome yet, though. I won't believe that Feb will fail until I witness it. 

I am strongly opinionated, though.....if this does end up being a bad call, plenty of criticism is warranted. That is the risk that you take when you forecast with confidence.

We aren't there yet, though....this season has been very similar to 1969, another one of my top analogs, and that season went nuclear in Feb. I think guidance is missing something right now, and blocking will be more pronounced than it currently appears.

Ray,  I have never commented on your forecasts.  I don't have the knowledge base like you do so I just take one week at a time looking forward.  Your insight and time you have devoted to your forecasts is amazing.  Just remember that this is not life altering stuff,  if it works out great, if not so be it.  Just compartmentalize all that you put into this hobby against all the other important things in your life.  It's not that big of a deal.  Your scientific reasoning is solid.  This is why I love meteorology so much, just a dynamic and fluid situation that not the best human or computer can work out.  Take a break and don't' be hard on yourself.

Thanks for all your posts   Gene

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yeah you are a straight shooter but you're damn good at what you do.

Anyway, hopefully you're right about February. I was staying positive until I came to realization that there will be a warm-up extending into the first full week of Feb after the arctic blast next week. Seeing that really put one foot over the ledge for me when it comes to this winter

I think that may end up muted...we will see.

[tavwtby]

this season seems like one of those that we'll get one major storm and perhaps a nickel and dime here and there and on to a cool wet spring... I hope your right Ray, because I've been banking on the second week of February onward to Mar...

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

If one traveled  back in the archives, well before any official outlooks came out, didn’t 40/70 call winter 18/19 to rat and 19/20 to rock? I just remember telling some friends back when I read that, almost a year ago, to not expect anything special this winter in SNE. 

[dendrite]

I think the moral of the story is everyone still has a lot to learn wrt seasonal forecasting. Just when we think we have something figured out we get thrown a curveball...*cough judah*...

If this ends up a lousy winter after a confident call of epicness, there’s nothing else to call it other than a major bust...whether you think the methodology is right or not. With that said, everyone learns from the busts and keeps pushing the science and the forecasts foreward. You can’t get discouraged either because we all bust. Some are good at spinning them with excuses, but for sure we’ve all had some big fails. 

With all of that said, it’s still January so let’s not mail it in like the 2012 Sox quite yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

I think the moral of the story is everyone still has a lot to learn wrt seasonal forecasting. Just when we think we have something figured out we get thrown a curveball...*cough judah*...

If this ends up a lousy winter after a confident call of epicness, there’s nothing else to call it other than a major bust...whether you think the methodology is right or not. With that said, everyone learns from the busts and keeps pushing the science and the forecasts foreward. You can’t get discouraged either because we all bust. Some are good at spinning them with excuses, but for sure we’ve all had some big fails. 

With all of that said, it’s still January so let’s not mail it in like the 2012 Sox quite yet.

Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass.

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think the moral of the story is everyone still has a lot to learn wrt seasonal forecasting. Just when we think we have something figured out we get thrown a curveball...*cough judah*...

If this ends up a lousy winter after a confident call of epicness, there’s nothing else to call it other than a major bust...whether you think the methodology is right or not. With that said, everyone learns from the busts and keeps pushing the science and the forecasts foreward. You can’t get discouraged either because we all bust. Some are good at spinning them with excuses, but for sure we’ve all had some big fails. 

With all of that said, it’s still January so let’s not mail it in like the 2012 Sox quite yet.

Speaking of the Sox, pitchers and catchers report in a little over 2 weeks- the clearest sign that winter is ebbing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

If one traveled  back in the archives, well before any official outlooks came out, didn’t 40/70 call winter 18/19 to rat and 19/20 to rock? I just remember telling some friends back when I read that, almost a year ago, to not expect anything special this winter in SNE. 

I did...but that was when I thought that the solar min would occur next season. That was early speculation. One thing I may have to reexamine is my stance in solar min winters for this area...raindance may have something there.

We will see.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass.

I think Jerry hit it on the head with sample size. There’s so many synoptic and global scale forcing mechanisms that work on the pattern that our relatively small sample size of datasets doesn’t necessarily give you a representative range of possible outcomes when factoring in some luck. Obviously you know all this and bust or not, you’ll be back next year fine. You have to have a “we’re onto Cincinnati” attitude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, Jerry is right.

[kdxken]

48 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

cool wet spring

 Absolutely not . You want to see a melt ...

[weathafella]

March 2012 was one of the best ever.  Not gonna happen.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

March 2012 was one of the best ever.  Not gonna happen.

Ski season ended for for March 18 for me...plus I cracked a rib or two on that last day.

it was neat seeing my son practice baseball on a dry field at the end of March...I doubt I see a month like that again

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

March 2012 was one of the best ever.  Not gonna happen.

12, 10, 98...we won’t be picky

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12, 10, 98...we won’t be picky

10 was a deluge

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 was a deluge

Comfy spring overall. Not much of a mudseason up here. I was crushing BTV in the forecasting contest by going wayyy above guidance. No snow cover meant to bump up the mixing heights like it was late Aprl.

[weathafella]

I think March in 98 was 90+ late month,,,,maybe 89 but spectacularly warm for March.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that may end up muted...we will see.

I think it will. Dec-Jan haven't exactly been blowtorch months and I expect Feb to be subdued in the temp department too.

At the very least I don't expect expect another torch like the last two years especially in a Nino. 

[78Blizzard]

I didn't see any torches for the next 16 days on the 0z GFS.  That is, unless we have redefined the word "torch".

[dendrite]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think March in 98 was 90+ late month,,,,maybe 89 but spectacularly warm for March.

A few days of 80s and then the 31st flirted with 90. Then a hellacious backdoor moved through. Tippy remembers that one well. 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass.

enso is just one of a myriad factors, not your fault, I think everyone was banking on a 1:1 correlation that hasn't panned out.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Cold no joke again Thursday morning-17F at 925 -18F at 850 wind chills -30   5 dog night

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah...the cold Thursday morning will be nasty.  Still considering postponing ski club...again, which will suck. Last week, 2” of rain and 55F...this week, 5F and wind...ugh

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cold no joke again Thursday morning-17F at 925 -18F at 850 wind chills -30   5 dog night

That has also been a frustrating element to this season, even for the winter enthusiasts in NNE. Much of there snow has had ungodly cold and wind intruding on the heals of these storms.(of course I would take this, but I’m deflecting now) Even for the heartiest of New Englanders it’s been pretty brutal. I wonder if the resorts are BN in regards to revenue due to the extreme cold. IMO that does take some of the shine off there AN snowfall.

[dendrite]

Glad this will be greatly modified for us. MEX with -14/-25 for ORD Thursday. Shattered records if that verifies. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Glad this will be greatly modified for us. MEX with -14/-25 for ORD Thursday. Shattered records if that verifies. 

But still not Feb 1996 -60 Tower, MN levels.  What an amazing winter that was, the historic cold that came in February doesn't get much attention.  I think that -60 might have been the lowest temp ever recorded east of the Rockies.

 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But still not Feb 1996 -60 Tower, MN levels.  What an amazing winter that was, the historic cold that came in February doesn't get much attention.  I think that -60 might have been the lowest temp ever recorded east of the Rockies.

 

Probably too much of a pressure gradient for those northern arrowhead sites (Tower/Embarrass), but this one may have more oomph for places further south than 96 did. The associated sfc high settles over the Dakotas on Wed morning so maybe they have a better chance to decouple and get into the -40s. MEX is hitting MSP with a -18/-30 which is right up there with the -17/-32 of 1996. The wind chills will be ridonkulous. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably too much of a pressure gradient for those northern arrowhead sites (Tower/Embarrass), but this one may have more oomph for places further south than 96 did. The associated sfc high settles over the Dakotas on Wed morning so maybe they have a better chance to decouple and get into the -40s. MEX is hitting MSP with a -18/-30 which is right up there with the -17/-32 of 1996. The wind chills will be ridonkulous. 

I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol.

 

That actually happened to me, here ...in SNE ...  My proclivity for forgetfulness with weather events and their dates has me at a loss as to what winter it was... but it was a recent one.  I left my iPhone on the front passenger seat of my car while at the gym.  One hour work out, came out ... phone was unresponsive.  I hadn't ever considered any limitations related to temperature and that particular technology, but I know first hand that there is some form of temperature band-width.  I wonder if there is an upper bound for that matter.  Interesting.. What I do recall was the temperature being -6 F on the dash-indicator.  An hour later ... while sitting in a warm cozy office chair, sipping a Gatorade and deflating over mindless web pap on my PC ... the interface of the phone starts glowing ...then, pops back to life with, the standard fare of icons working again.

If my iPhone got punch drunk at -6 ... they're gonna be in a comms black out up there, one might wonder. 

It's an example of how technology is effecting sociologically ... For a myriad of other reasons aside, civility becoming increasingly reliant upon the Internet, and/or the general WAN of a wired society ... that mere daily functioning becomes (as an aside, 'dangerously') dependent upon it - so much so that one could conceive a scenario where a 'state of emergency' has to be issue, because that dependency becomes inaccessible too acutely and quickly to adjust ... rendering a break-down in public safety on multiple levels.

It's funny ...putting it into perspective... For all conceits of man and how their ingenuity creates marvels ... a cold day cripples. This and these regional inconveniences ... they can serve as a nice microcosmic example of fragility, exposing how vulnerability is just there ... beyond the faux walls of technological conveniences that keep us preoccupied.