psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman I totally agree and you can see the divergence of those 2 boom/bust scenarios well in the ensembles. Relatively few that split the difference sort of like the Euro Op is doing now. GEFS has been leaning toward the boom scenario the last few runs and seems like GFS Op is going that way as well with the coastal getting us. EPS also trending that way a bit at 6z it looks like. Nam goes with the fail scenario lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Ellinwood's tweet above sounds good for us... he usually does well in his snow forecasts for us His first Tweet was sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: His first Tweet was sarcastic. Then read the 2nd and 3rd part of the tweet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FWIW, 12z 3km NAM doesn't look bad to me at h5 or with the QPF field at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The hi-res 3k nam has the initial plume of moisture further south: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thats a perfect match of the winter to this point for my yard lol. Not sure I would have even looked at the NAM on my own at this range. At this point I am pretty laser focused on the EURO and GFS op runs. I agree not to take the nam seriously. I just hate seeing any model spit out the way we would totally fail in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, packfan98 said: The hi-res 3k nam has the initial plume of moisture further south: That's mostly virga though....you're on the composite shot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON fwiw a little healthier through 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Despite what we see on the surface with the current NAM my biggest takeaway was that it was a win. The NAM has consistently been more progressive with the NS run over run since this storm got within range. IF that continues it is just a matter of time, probably in the next 2 or 3 runs, before we see that system bumping north and putting the DC/Balt corridor into play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Max precip through ezf and just south on 12z icon. Around dc and south get a little more coastal love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Despite what we see on the surface with the current NAM my biggest takeaway was that it was a win. The NAM has consistently been more progressive with the NS run over run since this storm got within range. IF that continues it is just a matter of time, probably in the next 2 or 3 runs, before we see that system bumping north and putting the DC/Balt corridor into play. The NAM is kind of a red flag to me. I know it's a sh*t model outside of 60, but it's a little un-nerving seeing the wettest model so dry. Hopefully that improves inside of 60 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON looks better at h5 ever so slightly to me at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Max precip through ezf and just south on 12z icon. Around dc and south get a little more coastal love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: I would sign off on that immediately. 2 -6" across the area. (A little more to the south.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The NAM is kind of a red flag to me. I know it's a sh*t model outside of 60, but it's a little un-nerving seeing the wettest model so dry. Hopefully that improves inside of 60 hours. I wouldn’t sweat it to much with the nam just yet. You know this obviously. It doesn’t have the skill 60-84 especially with coastal evolutions. Holds energy in weird ways sometimes and you get these odd looking scenarios. Wouldn’t worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, MD Snow said: That's mostly virga though....you're on the composite shot. Yeah that was a big issue with the Dec 9th storm. Composite shot had what looked like good precip through central MD on the 3k NAM for that storm but of course it was virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 That model depiction is literally my forecast. You can even see the secondary enhancement over Parr’s Ridge . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: That model depiction is literally my forecast. You can even see the secondary enhancement over Parr’s Ridge . Definitely some bust risk but also some boom risk. I still like widespread 2-4" and believe that range still has the highest chance of verification. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON still snowing at 18z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON has improved ever so slightly it's last 3 runs. Even gets us with the ULL pass Monday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, yoda said: The typical 50 mile northward shift as we approach gametime would put DC in the max zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That model depiction is literally my forecast. You can even see the secondary enhancement over Parr’s Ridge . I would very much like that model depiction to play out here, 6" or so is a nice little storm around Fredericksburg, but always worried about a little North trend and the very end. Noticed it still has some snow around at 18z on Monday..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The NAM is kind of a red flag to me. I know it's a sh*t model outside of 60, but it's a little un-nerving seeing the wettest model so dry. Hopefully that improves inside of 60 hours. The reason the NAM is normally the wettest model is because it tends to over amp the systems. Stronger low with stronger southerly feed and moisture vs. the other models gives you the wetter solution. In this case though the NAM and its NS representation is pretty much putting the kibosh on the low possibly amplifying. Not to worry though, if it continues to ease up on that NS it will probably hit a point that it gives that low room to amplify and then it will go to town giving us the NAMing that everyone loves.. Probably won't be right but it will be fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Through 69, H5 more strung out than 6z on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 More strung out at hour 66, wouldn't think this will end up as good with the coastal but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Looks a bit more expansive with the northern extent of the precip shield...at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Coastal never climbs, mod snow maybe tickles EZF for a panel or 2 but that's about it. Ugly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Swing and miss with the coastal. You could tell early on at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Coastal never climbs, mod snow maybe tickles EZF for a panel or 2 but that's about it. Ugly run. Still 2-3" even though its ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS made no friends in the upper levels. It's hard to distinguish between noise and trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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