January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The punt back to later January on the weeklies from the mid/late december runs IMO was attributed to missing the amplitude of the mjo and also possibly down welling the ssw effects to fast. The thing I'm curious about as we head into February is if the ssw effects propagate downward to the troposphere. IMO the weeklies are keying in on that occurring hence all the high lat blocking. At some point in late late January into February looking at the OLR on the VP plots, the tropical forcing isn't going to be conducive for cold. You can see by week 2 we are in a phase 2 look on them. Granted forecasting convection this far out is always a crap shoot in trying to figure out amplitude or what not. The strengthening of velocity potential close to the IO tells me MJO wave may possibly start to get stronger again towards start of February as we head into the IO and towards the maritime continent. Thats where the SSW effects may become key in keeping a favorable pattern going forward.

Good to see you Tombo.  You go into depth at something that I've been thinking from a broader perspective.  Only diff is that in my mind, the SSW is already underway for about 2 weeks, so with "normal" lag time, my wonder is if we may be starting to see the effects in LR guidance (beyond168) as cold is starting to show up in the NH or do you think it too early?

 

[MillvilleWx]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The bus is gonna need more then one driver if we want to make good time!  

I've been on the bus for a while, but I've been reading a book in the back while I wait for January 15-20 period to show itself. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Fascinating here. I believe the reversal a while back was not forecasted this low.

This is a new interim record for the date for 10 hPa60N 

We are also ahead of 1985 @Isotherm  Tom mentioned 1985 in a few posts a couple days back. Lined up with his mention of this timeframe. 

It also appears more warming is on the way. 

PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago

More

The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985

 

  

One huge advantage we have over 1985 was that was a moderate la nina and so the impacts of that SSWE were short and the pattern was dry and then the pattern immediately reverted to a total torch in February.  

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It was front loaded, but it was bitter cold and very little snow.  NOT what us front-loaders pine for.  Combine 1989 cold with 2009 snow, and would consider it a great year.

OK...so what is the best analog example of your mythical perfect front loaded winter?  Not including years like 1995/6, 2002/3, or 2013/14 that were wall to wall good winters...what is an example of a year you would LOVE that was front loaded and the back half sucked?

[nj2va]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The bus is gonna need more then one driver if we want to make good time!  

I’ve been the annoying backseat driver on the bus with you and CAPE driving.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One huge advantage we have over 1985 was that was a moderate la nina and so the impacts of that SSWE were short and the pattern was dry and then the pattern immediately reverted to a total torch in February.  

OK...so what is the best analog example of your mythical perfect front loaded winter?  Not including years like 1995/6, 2002/3, or 2013/14 that were wall to wall good winters...what is an example of a year you would LOVE that was front loaded and the back half sucked?

Honestly cant think of one that had a great first half and bad second half.  Seems to me if you have a good December, a great winter follows.... but there are so few good Decembers here the datasets is barely existant.

[pasnownut]

@psuhoffman

Your capacity (as well as a few others) to remember patterns/years is quite impressive.  

Can you share where you got the Pattern Pocket Pal?

[clskinsfan]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

There are some long range MJO forecasts that have it going neutral than heading right back toward 7-8. If that happens Feb could be really good. And like you say we could survive a weak phase 5 or 6 during our prime climo.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Awesome post showme!

I have to ask.  Is there potential for the interaction of all three jets in such a violent displacement  ?  

And for the record, I am not suggesting the Perfect Storm by asking that, just wondering outloud about possible outcomes. 

I imagine severe cold is also on the table as well possibly, even though you are talking more about cyclogenesis it seems. ( maybe a cold powder type storm in the cards in the next 6 weeks ) 

Didn't really think too hard on it initially but after some thought I wanted to revisit your question on the 3 jets. Actually yes the odds increase fairly dramatically of seeing possible interaction of the 3 jets. With what could possibly be full latitude ridging/troughing through the different domains of the jets it does set up the possible interaction between the 3 that we wouldn't typically see. Not to mention that the setup itself would probably be more conducing to dropping each jet behind the other in a favorable position. That said, even though the odds would be much more favorable doesn't mean they do favor this occurring. There is a reason that triple phasers are so rare. Just as we see how difficult it is to get a good phase between two jets with timing and placement consider how much harder it is to see it with 3 jets. Extremely hard. And this doesn't even consider having it occur in a favorable locale for our region. So though I would love to see this, I won't be holding my breath waiting for it to happen.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The bus is gonna need more then one driver if we want to make good time!  

Important thing is that we appear to be moving out of this Pac dominated pattern and transitioning to what we were all expecting. My feeling for a while now has been that because the Nino is a late starter/ SOI had been positive, it was going to take some time to see a legit atmospheric response. The strong MJO pulse plus the SWE were wildcards and became complicating factors. The timing of the SPV split, and the forecasted progression of the MJO both argued for more lag in the pattern evolution. I was never impressed with the possibility of sneaking in an event around New Years or into early Jan. I pretty much closed the shades and have been focusing on the idea of getting a serviceable pattern around mid month. I always try to be realistic with my expectations if nothing else, but have remained optimistic that mid-late Jan will become more favorable for winter weather around here.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

@psuhoffman

Your capacity (as well as a few others) to remember patterns/years is quite impressive.  

Can you share where you got the Pattern Pocket Pal?

Pisses me off though. I can't even remember half the time what I had for dinner yesterday and these showoffs are telling me about the snow ratios, total precip, their winter outfits, etc... from a storm 15-20 years ago.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

There are some long range MJO forecasts that have it going neutral than heading right back toward 7-8. If that happens Feb could be really good. And like you say we could survive a weak phase 5 or 6 during our prime climo.

I may get trolled for this, but I think it best to get this pattern change on our doorstep before we worry about where it goes from there.  I like everyone want it to come and stay, but LR guidance has been too unstable to get too caught up IMO.  IF we can get this new regime to happen and stay for a while, the cold could hold, and as already stated, mute any attempt at a reemergence into "bad MJO phases.  Things seem to be aligning to a "safter" backside of winter.  

Just dont want to look for the end or ways to fail before we ever see the promise land.  

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Pisses me off though. I can't even remember half the time what I had for dinner yesterday and these showoffs are telling me about the snow ratios, total precip, their winter outfits, etc... from a storm 15-20 years ago.

I'm tellin ya.....

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ve been the annoying backseat driver on the bus with you and CAPE driving.  

DON'T FOLD THE MAPS!!!!!  Roll the maps.

[Ralph Wiggum]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

Going almost directly and that quickly from a phase 8 weak 1 straight back to a 4 would likely spell a major event as the transition happens IF we get the cold and IF it hangs around long enough. Obviously could score before then too but am I completely wrong in my assessment? Sort similar to an Archabault where the neg NAO transitions to a pos NAO and we tend to get hit? What would such a direct course from cold to warmish mean? Again i cant help but think something like that would yield a potential BIG ticket event somewhere in the East. 

[Ji]

JB has been a total emotional mess the last week.  Behaving like the emotional baseline of this thread vacillating between "its coming" to total despair every model run.  He must really be invested in this winter for whatever reason...  no idea what, maybe its really important to JD's baby the pioneer model, maybe they are at a turning point with wxbell and their clients...maybe he is thinking he is close to the end and wants to go out on top...no idea really just speculating but for whatever reason he is really really upset at the prospect of this winter not going his way and has gone full tilt emotionally lately.  Kinda almost feel bad for him....almost.  

Is this video or his columns?

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

01-02 was 11-12 except 10 years earlier.  Awful winter.  

 

89-90 was a Nina year with a very cold December that had a little snow (and we just missed out on a few big hits from Miller Bs that nailed Philly-north) and then winter was over by this time in January.  

Those years have been popping up because I think CPC classified us as neutral this week as either PSU or Bob posted here.  One also posted that some other indices match those years as well and they all were neutral after a La Niña.   

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Honestly cant think of one that had a great first half and bad second half.  Seems to me if you have a good December, a great winter follows.... but there are so few good Decembers here the datasets is barely existant.

Starting to see my point?  I am not saying early snow isn't awesome... but that just isn't how we roll.  And when we do get early snow usually we get more later...but if we were to get a good December then nothing the rest of the year unless it was like a 40" December that wouldn't really be awesome, we would remember the total fail in January and February in the end.  

[SnowGoose69]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

I think if it stays strong enough to pass through 8 and 1 it’s remote that it ever re-emerges back into 3-4-5 in any strong manner.  Maybe it gets back in there in weak amplitude 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going almost directly and that quickly from a phase 8 weak 1 straight back to a 4 would likely spell a major event as the transition happens IF we get the cold and IF it hangs around long enough. Obviously could score before then too but am I completely wrong in my assessment? Sort of an Archabault where the neg NAO transitions to a pos NAO and we tend to get hit? What would such a direct course from cold to warmish mean? Again i cant help but think something like that would yield a potential BIG ticket event somewhere in the East. 

Speaking of quickly, the sudden appearance of the better pattern showing up, and the models getting the proper ingestion from the ongoing SSWE you could venture a guess this afternoon's Euro will show a further improvement over last night's.  

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Speaking of quickly, the sudden appearance of the better pattern showing up, and the models getting the proper ingestion from the ongoing SSWE you could venture a guess this afternoon's Euro will show a further improvement over last night's.  

If we can get any help with suppressing heights over the next week... the d10ish deal can trend in our favor. Not a lot of max potential but it could feature some frozen. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Starting to see my point?  I am not saying early snow isn't awesome... but that just isn't how we roll.  And when we do get early snow usually we get more later...but if we were to get a good December then nothing the rest of the year unless it was like a 40" December that wouldn't really be awesome, we would remember the total fail in January and February in the end.  

I love the concept of a cold and snowy December. The holidays are upon us, the low sun angle/short days- the idea of cold and snow at that time is just so freaking romantic. But yeah, the reality is it happens so rarely in this region its best to just let it go and accept that it really is just another Fall month- even though its the first month of Met winter.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Speaking of quickly, the sudden appearance of the better pattern showing up, and the models getting the proper ingestion from the ongoing SSWE you could venture a guess this afternoon's Euro will show a further improvement over last night's.  

I feel an 'ALEET ALEET' in the not too distant future.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we can get any help with suppressing heights over the next week... the d10ish deal can trend in our favor. Not a lot of max potential but it could feature some frozen. 

It may come down to the speed of the incoming trof and cold push out of central Canada.  The timing needs to be just about perfect or we end up with cold and dry or another 2 days of mild and wet 

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Starting to see my point?  I am not saying early snow isn't awesome... but that just isn't how we roll.  And when we do get early snow usually we get more later...but if we were to get a good December then nothing the rest of the year unless it was like a 40" December that wouldn't really be awesome, we would remember the total fail in January and February in the end.  

Oh, I  know it is atypical, but that doesn't make me want it any less.  For me, its also knowing that a snowy December all but ensures a snowy winter.  Snow delayed is usually snow denied.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

@psuhoffman

Your capacity (as well as a few others) to remember patterns/years is quite impressive.  

Can you share where you got the Pattern Pocket Pal?

A combination of wasting way too much of my life researching weather data and being blessed with a good memory.  I'm not that smart...I just did good in school because I was lucky enough to be able to remember things.  As long as I was paying attention during a lecture or when I was reading something I didn't have to study to remember it.  That's good because I was probably too busy wasting time weathering to bother to study!  (and maybe partying a little too much at times)  

[blizzardmeiser]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

JB has been a total emotional mess the last week.  Behaving like the emotional baseline of this thread vacillating between "its coming" to total despair every model run.  He must really be invested in this winter for whatever reason...  no idea what, maybe its really important to JD's baby the pioneer model, maybe they are at a turning point with wxbell and their clients...maybe he is thinking he is close to the end and wants to go out on top...no idea really just speculating but for whatever reason he is really really upset at the prospect of this winter not going his way and has gone full tilt emotionally lately.  Kinda almost feel bad for him....almost.  

Is this video or his columns?

He is pounding his chest now- indicating the upcoming cold will cause economic hardship 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I just watched an entire DT video for the first time (and it was actually good).  And I learned how to read those SSW wind reversal forecasts.  Anyways, he ended his video comparing this winter to 2009-2010 in terms of the timing between the December storm in 2009 and the Jan 2010 event (40+ days) as well as the upper level patterns of Jan 2010 to this January.  I’m not saying this will be a repeat of 2010 and no two winters are alike but 09-10 did feature quite the boring, PAC puke period too.  Only difference is we missed out on a December WSW storm by less than 50 miles.  

 

 

He mentions several 'baby vortexes'. Guess those daughter vortices have been busy and misbehaving under daddy PVs nose.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is a lot like 97-98, I think.

Check out how these waves in the North Pacific of the Aleutian Islands aren't making it to the west coast. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

He is pounding his chest now- indicating the upcoming cold will cause economic hardship 

The crops that bloomed the last month are now going to fail?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Oh, I  know it is atypical, but that doesn't make me want it any less.  For me, its also knowing that a snowy December all but ensures a snowy winter.  Snow delayed is usually snow denied.

I totally understand wanting it...my point was just that judging a whole winter based on December really guarantees that 90% of our winters will be a fail as its just not our climo to have a big December.  But to each their own... maybe you are that professor that doesn't believe in giving A's lol.