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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


It’s almost for sure wrong. When looking in 7 day chunks we go into consistent negative departures from days 21-28 on but it’s not enough to drop us to -10, especially given the other 21 days are all positive anomalies.

 

It gives us the Day After Tomorrow in 7 weeks....

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It gives us the Day After Tomorrow in 3 weeks....


I didn’t write it off immediately when I saw it, but it’s the Control run that gives us the mega-winter save, not the ensemble mean, the latter of which is showing the -10 departure.

I’d love to see the controls temp departure. End of January into Feb should be frigid.
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lol control run. Yeah, really performing well as of late. That dang model has given me about 60" digital snow over the past 4 weeks. 

Yeah not gonna get too excited but it’s the first really good data so it’s fun for now. 

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Maybe this is wishcasting but the 12z EPS seems headed in that direction to fit in well with the weeklies timing per the tweet from WxUSAF above.

I think it was at the very end but I’d like to get another 7 days under our belt with a similar evolution before getting confidence in a sustained pattern change. 

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2 hours ago, Fozz said:

Why was the first half of 2006-07 so awful? I remember it being an endless horrendous torch until maybe Jan 15-16th, but I don't remember all the details. I also felt nearly hopeless for some time. IIRC that was another borderline weak Nino.

Sometime in January that year I remember we were about 36 hours out from what was supposed to be a 3-6" snow from a wave coming up the coast. Everything had it. Except the NAM.   I remember being in the computer lab at a governors academy seminar and everyone was flippantly dismissing the nam since it was all alone then the next run everything lost the wave. It was just gone.  We got some snow showers with the front and out here I eeked out an inch from squalls but that was it. 

That was when I both realized that year sucked and that no matter what always believe the model with the least snow. 

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12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Maybe this is wishcasting but the 12z EPS seems headed in that direction to fit in well with the weeklies timing per the tweet from WxUSAF above.

I made note of that earlier, and even yesterday runs (wrt to previous edition of the weeklies). The progression and timing has looked pretty close... within a few days.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I made note of that earlier, and even yesterday runs (wrt to previous edition of the weeklies). The progression and timing has looked pretty close... within a few days.

Yep, totally agree.  As WxUSAF noted above, I’d now like to see this timing stay firm so we can get this under 14 days, 10, 7, etc.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometime in January that year I remember we were about 36 hours out from what was supposed to be a 3-6" snow from a wave coming up the coast. Everything had it. Except the NAM.   I remember being in the computer lab at a governors academy seminar and everyone was flippantly dismissing the nam since it was all alone then the next run everything lost the wave. It was just gone.  We got some snow showers with the front and out here I eeked out an inch from squalls but that was it. 

That was when I both realized that year sucked and that no matter what always believe the model with the least snow. 

I remember in 04-07 or so the NAM was actually very good.  I don’t know if every other model got better or it just got worse 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. 

If we have a day 10 event and the weeklies start showing up on the eps...oh man

Already started really. 12z run today was a nice step forward- up top and in the EPAC. I bet the next few runs will have people getting giddy in here.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Phase 8 of the mjo argues that might trend better. Ok you can throw things at me now. 

It's been so long that we forget that storms can actually trend better sometimes... Nice to see at least a chance on the gefs/eps. I'll take anything. Even a trashcan lid topper. 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometime in January that year I remember we were about 36 hours out from what was supposed to be a 3-6" snow from a wave coming up the coast. Everything had it. Except the NAM.   I remember being in the computer lab at a governors academy seminar and everyone was flippantly dismissing the nam since it was all alone then the next run everything lost the wave. It was just gone.  We got some snow showers with the front and out here I eeked out an inch from squalls but that was it. 

That was when I both realized that year sucked and that no matter what always believe the model with the least snow. 

Is the NAM still in operation?

Its been so long since we've had a threat in the medium range, I thought theyd pull it to save $$ as its no longer needed. :lol:

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