Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Well... perhaps the post I just made will help elucidate some of the "bad luck" causality... Which isn't really 'bad luck' angels on one's shoulders ...if we bother to learn and understand limitations. To paraphrase, the MJO gets too much emphasis as a pattern forcer. It's more an "enhancer" ...it can help or take away... But if the surrounding medium is "out of sync" with the wave's location in space and time ... then the pattern one sees in modeling and verification alike might not look very well correlated. so in other words, until the EPO and/or PNA become largely in our favor the MJO in 7/8/1 or even 6 become largely just timing/luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Delayed but maybe not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: so in other words, until the EPO and/or PNA become largely in our favor the MJO in 7/8/1 or even 6 become largely just timing/luck? I'm saying that if the total hemisphere forcing was in favor of MJO 7/8/1/ and may as well through 2 in there... than the wave would behave differently moving around the diagram for one... But two, it would add to the hemisphere and the quadrature of the hemisphere that concerns N/A would amplify further do to that momentum input. I can't prove this outrightly from where I'm sitting... but knowing a thing or two about basic wave mechanics ... I'm willing to surmise with reasonable confidence that the opposite ...or some negative interference of some kind, has been taking place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 December deja screw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Delayed but maybe not denied? heh... delayed AND denied 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: heh... delayed AND denied If we factor in the GFS biases then maybe we have something? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 A closer whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: A closer whiff. Should be a bright bright bright sunshiny day here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The models really did well with this present ordeal coming down the last four days... I got the distinct idea that we'd see some sort of 'trowal' genesis up in Maine just from the cornucopia of guidance blend and on sat and rad that seems to be the case. That band's probably putting down some decent rates at the door-stops of the black bear dens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 GGEM a whiff and not much improvement either. We needed the phase...I don't think hoping it will lift out is going to work. But we're not trending toward a phase either, so we're stuck in the "no event" middle. We threaded the needle. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM a whiff and not much improvement either. We needed the phase...I don't think hoping it will lift out is going to work. But we're not trending toward a phase either, so we're stuck in the "no event" middle. We threaded the needle. So the winter of 2018/2019 continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Looks like snow squalls next Wednesday associated with the arctic front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 maybe i'll get up to 0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 And next weekend cuts....our hopes and dreams: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM a whiff and not much improvement either. We needed the phase...I don't think hoping it will lift out is going to work. But we're not trending toward a phase either, so we're stuck in the "no event" middle. We threaded the needle. My guess is the threat is dead, but we will see one last Jason Vorhees trend to get folks like Anthony excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like a great storm for north Carolina and Virginia, almost a copy of 12/9. Remember, patterns like to repeat themselves and there will be more storms to impact the SE and Mid-Atlantic this winter. Classic weak el-nino pattern. Plenty of weak el nino seasons were also good in the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Who would ever think this wasn’t going to destroy all of us in 48 hours based on this panel alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plenty of weak el nino seasons were also good in the mid Atlantic. At least someone's benefitting from all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 From a practical standpoint I hope 2015 doesn't come walking through the door. Too much in too short a time frame. If Boston gets to average I'll be grateful. I think we have only so many historic comebacks in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Who would ever think this wasn’t going to destroy all of us in 48 hours based on this panel alone? Winter 2018-19. Turning KU's into FU's. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, 8611Blizz said: From a practical standpoint I hope 2015 doesn't come walking through the door. Too much in too short a time frame. If Boston gets to average I'll be grateful. I think we have only so many historic comebacks in our lifetimes. Ya, 2015 is not happening one bit...dont you worry about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: From a practical standpoint I hope 2015 doesn't come walking through the door. Too much in too short a time frame. Probably not a popular stance in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plenty of weak el nino seasons were also good in the mid Atlantic. Sure hope your outlook is correct.....cuz we in sad shape about now. We can't buy a flake lol. And i'm not saying or looking for 2015 either, I mean just a storm or two that can produce some snow. Wow, this is discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Wheeee bu bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 We just keep missing, now in even half decent setups. At what point is this just not going to be a great year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Well this would pretty much shove everyone off the ledge if they haven't jumped yet.....Just your Typical Cat 2 over DC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We just keep missing, now in even half decent setups. At what point is this just not going to be a great year? If we get to Feb 5 without a flake then it won't be a good year. However all it takes is one huge storm to turn things around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Not to worried about that happening more than two weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Who would ever think this wasn’t going to destroy all of us in 48 hours based on this panel alone? With that confluence west to east flow.. everyone that understands weather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Not to worried about that happening more than two weeks away. the winds look fun at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts