Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Here ... I created some quick annotations to help elucidate what Will and I were just talking about 'what's going wrong with this'... I wanted to also include the 1978 evolution as a separate slide to show what that did right and this one (so far ...) is doing wrong (save for one run) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well on the flip side, we've been talking about how lucky we've been the past 10-15 (or even longer) years with getting a lot of these bigger ticker threats to break right for us. Ill-timed scooter streaks, bad breaks, etc were the hallmark of the 1980s into the early 1990s. Good point. I guess it depends on your timeframe. I was thinking mainly the last few months, but longer term you can definitely argue things have broken right for us far more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Damn SNE getting hosed lol. Wish I was here, empty and dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 "lonely and sad and unsure of himself" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam looks like it will throw some of us a bone. I know it's the NAM at the end of its run, but I have noticed it can sniff out some trends, IF it continues to trend in one direction, in this case north. Usually it ends up wrong when it starts out somewhere and just becomes bullheaded and doesnt budge. However, today the NAM started shifting south. The writing is on the wall unfortunately...NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I know it's the NAM at the end of its run, but I have noticed it can sniff out some trends, IF it continues to trend in one direction, in this case north. Usually it ends up wrong when it starts out somewhere and just becomes bullheaded and doesnt budge. However, today the NAM started shifting south. The writing is on the wall unfortunately...NEXT Just to painfully close to close the book at d4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I know it's the NAM at the end of its run, but I have noticed it can sniff out some trends, IF it continues to trend in one direction, in this case north. Usually it ends up wrong when it starts out somewhere and just becomes bullheaded and doesnt budge. However, today the NAM started shifting south. The writing is on the wall unfortunately...NEXT ? I thought it looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I know it's the NAM at the end of its run, but I have noticed it can sniff out some trends, IF it continues to trend in one direction, in this case north. Usually it ends up wrong when it starts out somewhere and just becomes bullheaded and doesnt budge. However, today the NAM started shifting south. The writing is on the wall unfortunately...NEXT The NAM was shifting north yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Er ? It shrunk quickly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I don’t think we toss completely before tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 At hr 84, ridge completely undercut such that there is virtually no ridge left.. The low pressure which wasnt much of a low to begin with is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I don’t think we toss completely before tomorrow night. I can't wait until next week so we can move past fraud threats and focus longer term again. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: At hr 84, ridge completely undercut such that there is virtually no ridge left.. The low pressure which wasnt much of a low to begin with is gone. Slightly more confluence on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't wait until next week so we can move past fraud threats and focus longer term again. Another threat next weekend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I guess forgetting entirely any phasing terminology... It s also possible that the N stream relaxes, and then the vestigial southern wave or its remnants swath some light snow in the area ... pretty sure I caught a few of y'all mentioning that yesterday. .. I'd stick with that on this guy and hope to be pleasantly surprised... Although, heh...at this rate shockingly would probably be more apropos, but you get my meaning. I just get the feeling that phase is very low ...I mean really low, probability. Which is exactly why it's going to happen and parlay the worst storm since the Chicxulub impact ... just to smite that correct advice.. But it's more than a mere feeling... This is a all a transitive proof... First, we need the ridge in Canada to "poke" higher in both laltitude and vertical depth to force the N stream on the good ole fashioned plunge trajectory - which other than that one prick tease series of runs a couple days back ...that's just not happening. That's not the transitive part though... The transitive reason is that the ridge handling in the west is < than 4 days out in the Euro...which can't see that happening? That's not likely given that particular model's wheel-house verification scores at < than 4 days... Such that depending on that handling at 4 days out... extrapolates a pretty confidence signal that we are not going to see the ridge correct... Such that if there is no correction there, we ain't phasin' here ... go for the residual southern wave light snow event. But as Will was intimating and I tend to ... (tentatively) agree... we "should" be heading into an era where those sort of corrections might be more likely. But, there's a separate thing going on where the operational Euro is continuously fight the whole MJO/+PNA ... I almost get the sensation I'm looking at a nebular result of the physics concurrently handling a plus-minus pattern. interesting... Hopefully it's just model-pattern-change antics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Hard pass. I agree on the hard pass. There was perhaps a link between the heat of 2018 and the El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The NAM was shifting north yesterday. As did the EPS, so there was some hope. But seeing the NAM come in stronger with the confluence was no good. Its the one model that seems to always gives hope to those on the northern fringe and seems like it does score some wins there....maybe it is ok with forecasting NE confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: At hr 84, ridge completely undercut such that there is virtually no ridge left.. The low pressure which wasnt much of a low to begin with is gone. Theres less confluence and it doesn't look further south to me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Theres less confluence and it doesn't look further south to me? The NAM as some pointed out in the MA forum almost looked to shift towards what the 06Z ICON showed which was a delayed setup where there is initial overrunning and then it appeared it was headed for a coastal post 120. It looked like largely a miss anywhere south of PHL/ACY but it seemed headed for something huge down that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yea. Thanks Ginx. Saw the same at 500vort. Anyway, we are over namming now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Man, until that MJO cuts the "crap", this is all we'll be seeing until it's gone or diminished quite a bit into a more favorable orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Theres less confluence and it doesn't look further south to me? Overall the run looked like the confluence had a stronger impact on the system as a whole than it did on the 6z. So did the Icon. Maybe there is something to the EPS having some lows hang back for a Monday/Tuesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Greg said: Man, until that MJO cuts the "crap", this is all we'll be seeing until it's gone or diminished quite a bit into a more favorable orientation. It’s in 8 right now. Almost as good as it gets. Can’t use that as a reason today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Greg said: Man, until that MJO cuts the "crap", this is all we'll be seeing until it's gone or diminished quite a bit into a more favorable orientation. Not sure what your impression basis is for making this assertion ... "cuts this crap" - please explain. Edit...what Jerry just said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s in 8 right now. Almost as good as it gets. Can’t use that as a reason today. It may be good as it gets but why is the performance lacking. It has to be a little bit more than just bad luck. Something is throwing a monkey wrench into the works and it has to be the driving force of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6z eps definitely moves the best chances (still not great) to Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Greg said: It may bge goode as it gets but why is the performance lacking. It has to be a little bit more than just bad luck. Something is throwing a monkey wrench into the works and it has to be the driving force of the Pacific. Just because the wave gets there doesn’t mean the switch is flipped instantly. And there is no guarantee of MJO help or hurt. It’s one element but not necessarily the driving force all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I just actually was looking at the MJO ... it's re-enforcing an impression that came to me yesterday. well, reminder is more like it. This is a text-book, jam-down-throat lesson in why the MJO is overrated. People ...from enthusiasts at the water coolers to the professional PHDimwits at NCEP need to get it through their f'n heads the difference between augmentation and drive. Seriously ... I'm watching the behavior of this curve as it's piercing it's way through the lead 8 of that WH diagram...and these lesser relaible models are so hesitant to push the wave forward, a few of them even move it backward along it's own course ..as though figuratively or symbolically bouncing off something - that's a negative interference incarnate. The fact that all of them...from the ECM to the UK and American clusters, are "unfurling" the curve as opposed to terminating it in free-space, is also indicative of wave resistance in the flow. This is all important because we should prooobably align expectations for help from that particular factor accordingly ... as in less so. You know...I really wish the we could see the computation for the WPO/NP/EPO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure what your impression basis is for making this assertion ... "cuts this crap" - please explain. Edit...what Jerry just said... What you posted earlier is great by the way! Like I said to Weathafella, The "8" looks great, but there need to be more of an eplaination for the "bad luck" that is occuring. The Pacific is paramount and so is the fast flow to the north "Confluence". The driver obviously has to be the Pacific. Maybe the whole combination of these "Chaotic" things is doing it. Until the Pacific can get a little more tame, I fear what we have seen so far may be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Greg said: What you posted earlier is great by the way! Like I said to Weathafella, The "8" looks great, but there need to be more of an eplaination for the "bad luck" that is occuring. The Pacific is paramount and so is the fast flow to the north "Confluence". The driver obviously has to be the Pacific. Maybe the whole combination of these "Chaotic" things is doing it. Until the Pacific can get a little more tame, I fear what we have seen so far may be it. Well... perhaps the post I just made will help elucidate some of the "bad luck" causality... Which isn't really 'bad luck' angels on one's shoulders ...if we bother to learn and understand limitations. To paraphrase, the MJO gets too much emphasis as a pattern forcer. It's more an "enhancer" ...it can help or take away... But if the surrounding medium is "out of sync" with the wave's location in space and time ... then the pattern one sees in modeling and verification alike might not look very well correlated. But ur on the right track (bold)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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