das Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: Oh geez....... Forecaster faux pas. Models don't create forecasts. They create guidance. Forecasters take guidance from multiple sources and create forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: behind but the Euro changed dramatically out west beyond D6 anyway... compared to priors - 'nough so to question handling everywhere... Agree with this. 12z Euro appears to be in transition to another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, das said: Forecaster faux pas. Models don't create forecasts. They create guidance. Forecasters take guidance from multiple sources and create forecasts. I thought the big fat red NO on the map was entertaining......lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I think some of the 1978 talk is a bit over the top but a "Coastal Bomb" development-like pattern can occur. For that, I'll throw my hat into the ring with this upcoming potential pattern. Keep your eyes peeled and fingers crossed at all times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Greg said: I think some of the 1978 talk is a bit over the top but a "Coastal Bomb" development-like pattern can occur. For that, I'll throw my hat into the ring with this upcoming potential pattern. Keep your eyes peeled and fingers crossed at all times! It may not be over the top. Remember 78 was a low of 984-decent but not earth shattering. The 1055 HP over Manitoba created quite the gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: It may not be over the top. Remember 78 was a low of 984-decent but not earth shattering. The 1055 HP over Manitoba created quite the gradient! Dynamically speaking it was ridiculous though. 984 with that antecedent pressure environment is crazy. That would probably be like a 960 or so in a typical environment. The pattern will definitely have some big dog potential I think. We have the meridional flow from the PNA...we will have to see if we add some legit NAO blocking too but it seems like that is also a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dynamically speaking it was ridiculous though. 984 with that antecedent pressure environment is crazy. That would probably be like a 960 or so in a typical environment. The pattern will definitely have some big dog potential I think. We have the meridional flow from the PNA...we will have to see if we add some legit NAO blocking too but it seems like that is also a possibility. I’ll go to my grave with the sting of disappointment for moving to LA 15 months too soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 There goes the 18z GFS getting ready to squash this thing to the south...confluence to the north stronger and further southwest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Weeklies have an epic +PNA and -NAO look week 3 and 4. Pretty sick looking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: There goes the 18z GFS getting ready to squash this thing to the south...confluence to the north stronger and further southwest.... Just look at 500. It’s not a classic look which is why we mentioned to hold the horses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have an epic +PNA and -NAO look week 3 and 4. Pretty sick looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Congrats southern mid Atlantic on the gfs. Confluence too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18z GFS = Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Congrats southern mid Atlantic on the gfs. Confluence too strong. It looks ok. Eastern southern New England gets clipped. It’s where we want it 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have an epic +PNA and -NAO look week 3 and 4. Pretty sick looking. If I may be greedy for a moment, how do the following weeks look (and how far out do they actually go)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just look at 500. It’s not a classic look which is why we mentioned to hold the horses. Going to be a week of weenie op run swings every 6 hrs, The highs, The lows, The melts, The cliff diving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18z gfs seems plausible to me, just kind of skirts out to sea, can’t make the turn really. does get south east ma and the cape with what looks like advisory snows. Quite the storm for the MA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Hell, I’d lock that in for here at this point. Couple of inches would feel like feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Going to be a week of weenie op run swings every 6 hrs, The highs, The lows, The melts, The cliff diving. Every run and every model will be discussed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Every run and every model will be discussed. Any new obscure ones out there that haven’t been dissected yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looks like Roanoke's year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Every run and every model will be discussed. And dissected and discussed again Then we move on the the ensembles, And break those down, And work the weeklies in along the way and a side of some strat talk................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: And dissected and discussed again Then we move on the the ensembles, And break those down, And work the weeklies in along the way and a side of some strat talk................ It could be worse...we could all be out doing heroin and torching cars and acting like azzholes...at least here we are contained 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any new obscure ones out there that haven’t been dissected yet? I'm going to put up all the models on a white board and even the obscure ones and keep a running tally............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any new obscure ones out there that haven’t been dissected yet? When the JMA and NAVGEM are OTS, too, close the shades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It could be worse...we could all be out doing heroin and torching cars and acting like azzholes...at least here we are contained God help us if Philly wins another SB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The GFS gives the south coast 3-6", it is not out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 And the GFS is basically crap since Christmas, so, there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 My God. A few weenies cancelling snow based on an off hour gfs run . God this place sucks anymore. Even if a miss , there’s still light accumulation this weekend with the N stream as Mets discussed. Get a GD grip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: My God. A few weenies cancelling snow based on an off hour gfs run . God this place sucks anymore. Even if a miss , there’s still light accumulation this weekend with the N stream as Mets discussed. Get a GD grip Who is cancelling snow? I just meant the GFS has gone in the shitter since the federal shutdown...not that it was great to begin with. I would just give it less credence for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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