40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Nice move on EC ensembles. Def NW of 00z. Awesome. That is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Man that ridge axis is everything. If that nrn s/w slowed or strengthened a bit, that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 behind but the Euro changed dramatically out west beyond D6 anyway... compared to priors - 'nough so to question handling everywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Awesome. That is nice to see. Still work to do verbatim on the mean but definitely a good trend. I think most people here would even take a solid advisory event if offered right now...I get that we all prefer the blockbuster. But an advisory event would be a sufficient appetizer for me given the pattern coming up afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Still work to do verbatim on the mean but definitely a good trend. I think most people here would even take a solid advisory event if offered right now...I get that we all prefer the blockbuster. But an advisory event would be a sufficient appetizer for me given the pattern coming up afterwards. Yes. Still enough time for anything, but I think a moderate a event is a reasonable goal at this point. Just to be clear, I have never said that we won't see anything prior to 1/20. I just think that the trend to the more favorable period is completing by then, thus we are more prone to big tickets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wilmington or Weymouth...way too early to get a feel. Hell if it’s 2-4” does it matter? I’ll be happy with the ground white. This pattern is one of the worst things I’ve ever lived through. I agree. The pattern has been awful. 11/4 inches of snow during the last 7 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still work to do verbatim on the mean but definitely a good trend. I think most people here would even take a solid advisory event if offered right now...I get that we all prefer the blockbuster. But an advisory event would be a sufficient appetizer for me given the pattern coming up afterwards. So agree. It would soothe the soul. I’m not proud saying this, but it’s amazing how much better my mood is with something impending....even if it’s an advisory. Nothing more aggravating then looking ahead and seeing a CONUS wide Chinook for days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So agree. It would soothe the soul. I’m not proud saying this, but it’s amazing how much better my mood is with something impending....even if it’s an advisory. Nothing more aggravating then looking ahead and seeing a CONUS wide Chinook for days. What a freaking weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Still enough time for anything, but I think a moderate a event is a reasonable goal at this point. Just to be clear, I have never said that we won't see anything prior to 1/20. I just think that the trend to the more favorable period is completing by then, thus we are more prone to big tickets. Yeah I don't disagree. We've scored even pretty big events (like 10-15") in semi-shit patterns before....but it's a lot easier to get them in good patterns. I think the easiest way to describe what is going on is: 1. 1/1-1/10 is better than Dec 20-1/1 but still not very good 2. 1/10-1/20 is better than 1/1-1/10 but still not great...but getting there. We will have some legit chances most likely. 3. 1/20-2/1 is ripe for bigger events and sustained cold. But sometimes we sneak in a pretty nice event during the transition too so we def can't sleep on these threats the next 10 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So agree. It would soothe the soul. I’m not proud saying this, but it’s amazing how much better my mood is with something impending....even if it’s an advisory. Nothing more aggravating then looking ahead and seeing a CONUS wide Chinook for days. Oh snow definitely increases my mood and I don't think we are alone in that. Snowy days are good days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Also, we still may get a brief torch but I've noticed the 1/16-1/18 period that looked warmer on EC ensembles previously are getting muted and turning into a window of interest the last couple runs. Recall that the 1/12-1/13 period at one time looked like a cutter on some guidance but it got colder and colder we got inside of 9 days or so. That split flow El Niño look is doing a number on preventing the milder air from getting too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't disagree. We've scored even pretty big events (like 10-15") in semi-shit patterns before....but it's a lot easier to get them in good patterns. I think the easiest way to describe what is going on is: 1. 1/1-1/10 is better than Dec 20-1/1 but still not very good 2. 1/10-1/20 is better than 1/1-1/10 but still not great...but getting there. We will have some legit chances most likely. 3. 1/20-2/1 is ripe for bigger events and sustained cold. But sometimes we sneak in a pretty nice event during the transition too so we def can't sleep on these threats the next 10 days or so. Absolute, 100% agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Also, we still may get a brief torch but I've noticed the 1/16-1/18 period that looked warmer on EC ensembles previously are getting muted and turning into a window of interest the last couple runs. Recall that the 1/12-1/13 period at one time looked like a cutter on some guidance but it got colder and colder we got inside of 9 days or so. That split flow El Niño look is doing a number on preventing the milder air from getting too far east. I’m just posting about that. That’s now a threat verbatim. Ridge pops out west and a little confluence to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I mean it could reverse, but hey...something that hasn’t looked worse as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m just posting about that. That’s now a threat verbatim. Ridge pops out west and a little confluence to the northeast. And the troughing undercuts the ridge and prevents the plains chinook from reaching us. The SE Canada PV love isn't hurting of course. But I'm really starting to like the El Niño look to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not what I said. But, that's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: And the troughing undercuts the ridge and prevents the plains chinook from reaching us. The SE Canada PV love isn't hurting of course. But I'm really starting to like the El Niño look to the south. Yeah we finally see some blues in the south at 500 and now oranges and reds. That’s defintely niño saying hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Jesus another one in the pipe line after. That’s all split flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 It’s getting exciting in here finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Snow allows us to understand the greatness of Mother Nature and if you believe in God than it increases your belief in the Lord. Not to sound like a religious nut, but it allows me to enjoy this wonderful act of nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus another one in the pipe line after. That’s all split flow. Is that the beginning of the pattern change I see on the EPS now within the 10 day window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: Is that the beginning of the pattern change I see on the EPS now within the 10 day window? It more or less starts this weekend. Of course 00z run may not look as good but hot dam this eps run is stormy. It may not be very cold verbatim, but give me the QPF and I’ll show you chances of wintry weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus another one in the pipe line after. That’s all split flow. I like da split flow. @40/70 Benchmark This is what I was referring to when you posted those 500mb charts about a week ago or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Pattern on all the ensembles looking good in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It more or less starts this weekend. Of course 00z run may not look as good but hot dam this eps run is stormy. It may not be very cold verbatim, but give me the QPF and I’ll show you chances of wintry weather. Yesterday's 12z eps had one member that gave our region 30-40" of snow through 15 days and that was with next weekend missing, there was 2 big ones, one right after another....good signs at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s getting active in here finally. FYP. No excitement yet until threats are imminent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 EPS is a real weenie look at the end. Best run since last winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Snow allows us to understand the greatness of Mother Nature and if you believe in God than it increases your belief in the Lord. Not to sound like a religious nut, but it allows me to enjoy this wonderful act of nature. Of course those religious people who suffer from snow may have a different take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Loving this thread for the first time this season!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is a real weenie look at the end. Best run since last winter? Look at the AO/NAO region alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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