PWMan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: Well if it continues to look like this the media/public hype train will start early. I’ve already heard someone say this morning about a possible “blizzard” for the Patriots game over the air. Here we go smh Bingo. Last Thursday I had co-workers talking matter-of-factly about the "snowstorm" that was going to hit Boston this Wednesday; even had someone seriously propose canceling an off-site meeting. Throw in the Foxboro element and this will quickly become a major talking point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. I'm not too worried about an overly amped solution with where the ridge is out west and the high placement. Ridge is centered right over Montana...that is like a 2015 placement where you either get hit or it slips east. We'd need it digging into like the Yucatán to worry too much. If the euro comes around a bit, we at least have a decent chance of advisory from the nrn stream perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 That would still yield a very good event, even with the mostly missed phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12z GGEM shuts down ME lol re snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That would still yield a very good event, even with the mostly missed phase. Cold system so you’d get Stowe ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the euro comes around a bit, we at least have a decent chance of advisory from the nrn stream perhaps. Yeah. I had mentioned that even the way seaward solution last night still gave us like an inch of light snow because the N stream tries to pull the diffuse IVT back a little and produce lift. It's not a bad look that far out though. Anecdotally, the northern stream stuff tends to come it a bit stronger when it is out of the under sampled regions in the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Any reports from our uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The GFS is definitely taking the system too far NW with the setup at 500. More so when it’s down in the TN Valley/western Gulf region but it ultimately impacts the entire track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Sort of reminds me of that quick hitter we had two years ago. Picked up a 14" even though the sucker was flying along. Not that I'm actually forecasting that at this distant remove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I imagine euro will continue to slowly trend in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I imagine euro will continue to slowly trend in this direction. I doubt it ends up a huge event...hope for a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Yeah ...so seeing this 12z GFS... it's variant in the stream phasing - as other's are noting - which underscores the points about having to have been perfect about those delicate facets of both amplitude and timing interactions from a lengthy D6 perch when considering that pricey 00z solution. It may be that we contend with a frets and starts of big Kahoona storms that disappear and come back in other guidances over the next two days... I think the 96 hour lead is a decent broadly acceptable "begin to take seriously" sort of benchmark but...even then, we have to remember that Boxing Day short term corrections (no analog but conceptually...) can still take place too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I doubt it ends up a huge event...hope for a few inches. If the storm don’t fit the outlook: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If the storm don’t fit the outlook: Good luck with it. Mid month isn't that out of sync with anything, but I'm just skeptical at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I doubt it ends up a huge event...hope for a few inches. Most qpf events since mid summer have over produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...so seeing this 12z GFS... it's variant in the stream phasing - as other's are noting - which underscores the points about having to have been perfect about those delicate facets of both amplitude and timing interactions from a lengthy D6 perch when considering that pricey 00z solution. It may be that we contend with a frets and starts of big Kahoona storms that disappear and come back in other guidances over the next two days... I think the 96 hour lead is a decent broadly acceptable "begin to take seriously" sort of benchmark but...even then, we have to remember that Boxing Day short term corrections (no analog but conceptually...) can still take place too... Yea, we have good consensus on a big hit mid week, then fine...but I'm skeptical right now. Odds of nailing the behavior of both streams during a time of hemispheric flux are slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 This 12z GGEM run looks like ~ three of the 00z GEF members... Not bad percentage ... 33% for D6/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Most qpf events since mid summer have over produced. If it phases, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Most qpf events since mid summer have over produced. Unless it’s been cold out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looks like Crazy uncle is still on the wagon. Not biting for this one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck with it. Mid month isn't that out of sync with anything, but I'm just skeptical at this lead. I’m busting. I agree that a timing issue during a transition period can go both ways. And how unlucky we’ve been to this point doesn’t bear confidence we can time the streams right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless it’s been cold out When it’s cold out we have nary a cloud. Been fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, we have good consensus on a big hit mid week, then fine...but I'm skeptical right now. Odds of nailing the behavior of both streams during a time of hemispheric flux are slim. Until something eases the raging zonal flow ...these phases are a excellent chance to be mental masturbation they will trend weaker and more elongated and the timing of two streams phasing with no semblance of much to slow them down is the reason the modeling craps the bed on mid range “phasers” lately. unless something creates some traffic in Atlantic to shake things up the ceiling for any weekend event will be 6” at best and likely a miss or less and models will catch on between 72 and 120 hrs.... early December was bad luck ...these storms lately not working out or phasing is a bad pattern that models struggle with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Until something eases the raging zonal flow ...these phases are a excellent chance to be mental masturbation they will trend weaker and more elongated and the timing of two streams phasing with no semblance of much to slow them down is the reason the modeling craps the bed on mid range “phasers” lately. unless something creates some traffic in Atlantic to shake things up the ceiling for any weekend event will be 6” at best and likely a miss or less Exactly my thoughts...moderate at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 muthufukkas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly my thoughts...moderate at best. To be honest, I care a bit less than usual what models show at day 3-7. In this pattern of fast zonal flow from mid pacific to W Atlantic and with split flow component you can with decent likelihood wait for the models to trend “ to the likely outcome such a pattern produces” no phasing , elongated , strung out. There are exceptions possible but those are just those . I don’t necessarily even care what the models show now at 12z or 0z tonite , can’t recall a pattern where this was this much the case If I can figure this out , most posters should be able to lol. Weenies ...The models will trend toward the fast zonal flow of the pattern (which is awful for storms) take day 5-7 phasers w a grain of salt ...until the flow slows down prepare to have “bad luck “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 8 muthufukkas MEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: To be honest, I care a bit less than usual what models show at day 3-7. In this pattern of fast zonal flow from mid pacific to W Atlantic and with split flow component you can with decent likelihood wait for the models to trend “ to the likely outcome such a pattern produces” no phasing , elongated , strung out. There are exceptions possible but those are just those . I don’t necessarily even care what the models show now at 12z or 0z tonite , can’t recall a pattern where this was this much the case Its changing, though....this one maybe a bit too early, we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: MEX? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its changing, though....this one maybe a bit too early, we'll see. It appears early to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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