January 2019 Discussion

[Chrisrotary12]

If you squint really hard you can find away for the day 5 storm to gain enough latitude, but its very encouraging to see the EPS continue to have both a Day 10 and a Day 14 system. Both appear to be of the Miller B variety.

[JBinStoughton]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dood got called a meatball. 

I’m not saying a word.  We wait. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You’ll follow

should the pattern “change” morph into 7-10 days of favorable pattern from say Feb 3-12 and then revert 

I would put an O/U at Bos for year currently at

25”

ORH 

35.5”

Over.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Over.

Way over. 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You’ll follow

should the pattern “change” morph into 7-10 days of favorable pattern from say Feb 3-12 and then revert 

I have reasonable expectations, so I feel pretty good. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Way over. 

In order for ORH to finish with 35.5", they would have to only get about 55% of climo from here on out....and that includes all years. Not just El Nino. El Nino climo would be considerably higher. ORH climo from this point forward is about 47-48"....if we are generous and say ORH completely whiffs the next 12 days, climo is still around 42" from 1/20 onward. They already have 9.5" on the season coming into today (prob a few tenths more now)...so they need only about 25 inches the rest of the season to hit his number.

It could happen...you never rule anything out....but the odds are really low that it does.

[EastonSN+]

Continues to bend to the left.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’d bet the house, the cars, and the wife and kids on the over. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have reasonable expectations, so I feel pretty good. 

You takin the “way over” amounts 

Bos o/u 25

I don’t imagine you being confident for BOS goin over

[Typhoon Tip]

It is boring ... grant you that. 

As far as that 13/14th thing, I hearken back to my thoughts/first impressions yesterday morning when first seeing the GFS' eye-popper on the BM ... that its synoptic evolution was dubious at the time. I'm pretty sure others echoed that sentiment so I wasn't/not alone.

It was fine "within it's own construct" but the super-synopsis wasn't evolving ...or if it was, it was doing so covertly, and it wasn't very clear how or why the GFS was identifying the N/stream the way it was ... blah blah if one wants to go back and read ...it's like page 85 (  ).  .. Then, the GGEM threw a seemingly deliberate lie-bone to keep us prick-teased along ... ?  Sorry, as unreliable as that model may be, the fact of the matter is, it still uses the physical system of equations to propagate atmospheric phenomenon out in time, so less concision doesn't matter for present philosophy - it's the fact that it had it that should be of interest.  If your too stupid to wrap your head around why that is all important and instead feel inclined to chide, I can't help you.  

It's difficult to feel confident in any call at this time.  The irrational school is winning, and the "Stockholm" psychology has long taken its toll. Therein, there's virtually no one that believes based on the unrelenting exception-less abuses ...that we could possibly be preordained to any other reality than a gutted winter.

But, objective observer says, ...well wait: last check ... the hemisphere is edging into a pattern change. So the models  - yes ...even the Euro - as history shows every time, are prone to increased error.  That's because the forcing from different scales is in flux and...well, that's where I just lost the average reader.  Sufficed it is to say, they could all be missing the N/stream.  Which I still feel the handling above the 40th parallel from S of Alaska clear to NF is why, which is right smack in the region where said pattern change would tend to mean greatest stochastic returns. 

There's something to be said for the 2003 ALCS ... Imagine Game 7. The Red Sox have just taken a 5-2 lead on the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium, with Pedro Martinez on the Mound.  That's the idea of the 8th quadrature MJO pulse correlation with a +PNA and -A0 ... augmented by some SSW prequel logic.  But that setting doesn't say anything for why or how everyone in and outside of Baseball knew, that there was no way in hell that Pedro was coming out of that game with a W.   Powerless to stop it ... we watched, as Grady Little's meat-headed rah rah Gamma male cowering beneath the specter of Pedro's ego tragically annulled infamy.  In the 8th when he was clearly off his velocity and control after 120 pitch count ...  what happens?  Well, the Red Sox lost 7-5 of course ...or something like that... and then of course that horrible stench of inevitability went on ahead and rotted the rest of the Series and blithely the 'Sox season ended there.  

But then I think about 2004 ... being 0-3 in the same damn Series against the same damn Yankees ... Could there be more abysmal aroma?  ... Makes the paragraph above feel like a b-j by comparison... Yet we all no what happened.  

I guess the moral of this, which no one has likely even read this far ... is not to get caught up in the trend-weeds.  I think if folks just really learned to live and breath and intrinsically accept at all scales of reality, from Plank time scales to eternity and back, that there will always be utterly unpredictable disappointment levied ... like some great taxation for the privilege of existential sentience ... it wouldn't allow such conditionalizing guide one's outlook.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If you squint really hard you can find away for the day 5 storm to gain enough latitude, but its very encouraging to see the EPS continue to have both a Day 10 and a Day 14 system. Both appear to be of the Miller B variety.

Gotta play the douche card and at least ask ... (haha) ...at what point do we connect with the apparent sequence of never getting one of those inside of D7 ? 

 

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Actually they don't always.  Most times they don't.

I wish I had a running log, but I don't.  But I'd say its 50/50. You better hope I'm right or your going to be swan diving into the Piscataqua. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You takin the “way over” amounts 

Bos o/u 25

I don’t imagine you being confident for BOS goin over

Which Boston?   In reality I feel good about this given the long range. Now can I predict the luck, nuances/chaos that allow the difference between merely decent vs epic? No. All I can say, is that given the look of the long range, which corresponds to our snowier looks, I would feel good. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Which Boston?   In reality I feel good about this given the long range. Now can I predict the luck, nuances/chaos that allow the difference between merely decent vs epic? No. All I can say, is that given the look of the long range, which corresponds to our snowier looks, I would feel good. 

Thanks 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In order for ORH to finish with 35.5", they would have to only get about 55% of climo from here on out....and that includes all years. Not just El Nino. El Nino climo would be considerably higher. ORH climo from this point forward is about 47-48"....if we are generous and say ORH completely whiffs the next 12 days, climo is still around 42" from 1/20 onward. They already have 9.5" on the season coming into today (prob a few tenths more now)...so they need only about 25 inches the rest of the season to hit his number.

It could happen...you never rule anything out....but the odds are really low that it does.

I recall your call at a GTG several years ago with regard to Boston snowfall finishing above average and you nailed it . You made the call in January when Boston was doing very poorly 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gotta play the douche card and at least ask ... (haha) ...at what point do we connect with the apparent sequence of never getting one of those inside of D7 ? 

 

Be careful Tip....The Meatball moniker is being thrown around lol....

[Chrisrotary12]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gotta play the douche card and at least ask ... (haha) ...at what point do we connect with the apparent sequence of never getting one of those inside of D7 ? 

 

This is where I play the honesty card and admit that I had not paid attention to the extended range until this week. I'm of the opinion that we can't accurately forecast the weather 3-5 days from now, why try to beyond 7. But since those of you in here who I actually value their input were beginning to get excited about the extended range, I took a peak. 

Have extended model solutions consistently shown favorable coastal development in the 7-14 day range? And just not been able to transition inside D7?

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey meatball, the pattern change isn't until the 20th and after. 

Some peoples board contributions are to bitch and complain.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I recall your call at a GTG several years ago with regard to Boston snowfall finishing above average and you nailed it . You made the call in January when Boston was doing very poorly 

That was the Jan 2013 GTG in ORH I think....if you had told me though that we would go the rest of that January with very little, I prob wouldn't have predicted it, lol. That pattern got good but we still wasted about 2-3 weeks before the Feb 2013 blizzard turned it around. But that's sometimes how it works...you wait, wait, and then boom you get the powderkeg to explode. Esp in those types of patterns...they are different from the -PNA/-NAO patterns like we saw for a time in 2008-2009....those tend to be a lot more active but smaller events.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This is where I play the honesty card and admit that I had not paid attention to the extended range until this week. I'm of the opinion that we can't accurately forecast the weather 3-5 days from now, why try to beyond 7. But since those of you in here who I actually value their input were beginning to get excited about the extended range, I took a peak. 

Have extended model solutions consistently shown favorable coastal development in the 7-14 day range? And just not been able to transition inside D7?

Yeah...it's a good approach ... let's begin by asking that/these questions:

I'd say no ... not materialistically ... However, with the extended being as you observe, 'excitable in the tenor,' ... there's probably a tendency to look and assess for them with a bit more focus.  

[dryslot]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Continues to bend to the left.

Only time semi flaccid is a good thing.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was the Jan 2013 GTG in ORH I think....if you had told me though that we would go the rest of that January with very little, I prob wouldn't have predicted it, lol. That pattern got good but we still wasted about 2-3 weeks before the Feb 2013 blizzard turned it around. But that's sometimes how it works...you wait, wait, and then boom you get the powderkeg to explode. Esp in those types of patterns...they are different from the -PNA/-NAO patterns like we saw for a time in 2008-2009....those tend to be a lot more active but smaller events.

No doubt pattern looking nice going forward....I think we'll definitely have our chances...hopefully we can cash in a few times!???  Just would have been nice to pick up a little something this upcoming Sunday to take the edge off just a bit.  Maybe that's still possible...be nice.

[Hoth]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Only time semi flaccid is a good thing.

Or it's got Peyronie's disease...

[Typhoon Tip]

One thing I'm also noticing as the extended is coming into the middle range is that the "relaxed" appeal of the flow we've been discussing seems to be creeping back the other way.  

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Or its got Peyronie's disease...

dude...don't post words the require people to google racy meanings at the office...   j/k

[weathafella]

30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I recall your call at a GTG several years ago with regard to Boston snowfall finishing above average and you nailed it . You made the call in January when Boston was doing very poorly 

Yup.  You and I were dumbfounded on the way home from the gtg.

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think it is far too soon to write off the possibility of at least a moderate (4" or more) snowstorm for the weekend. The MJO is in Phase 8 (during which many of the region's moderate or greater snowstorms have occurred). The AO has gone negative and an AO-/PNA+ combination is likely. More than two-thirds of the region's moderate or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a combination. The pattern evolution has been moving in the right direction as per the ensembles (EPS and GEFS). At this timeframe, the ensembles still carry greater weight than the operational models, IMO.

Nothing is cast in stone from this far out. Critical details will be crucial this time around and those details may not be resolved until the storm is within 72 hours. A missed phase would mean little or no snow for much of the region. A partial phase could be sufficient to produce a moderate snowfall, especially in places such as southeastern Pennsylvania, southern and central New Jersey. A full phase could result in a significant snowfall across the region.

One counterargument would be that the major December 8-10, 2018 Southeast snowstorm was consistently well-predicted by most (not all) of the guidance some 10 days in advance. First, such extended range accuracy is not common. Second, the synoptic situation was a very simple one. One was dealing with little more than a powerful ridge sliding eastward across the northern Middle Atlantic region with a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. The synoptic pattern was a close match to the 500 mb patterns present for some of the historic Southeast storms that affected mainly North Carolina and a part of Virginia while bringing little or no snow from Washington, DC northward. Phasing was not a variable that time around. It's an important question this time around.

For now, I believe the weekend storm still bears watching. There remains a distinct possibility that it could bring an accumulating snow in the region. The details remain to be worked out.

There is a chance that the system will pass to our south, but bring snow much farther north than the aforementioned December storm (perhaps including such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Harrisburg). There remains a possibility that the storm will deliver a moderate snowfall to much of the region and into southern New England (including snow-starved Boston where just 0.2" has accumulated through January 7, that city's 2nd least snowfall on record through January 7).

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

So we need a full phase . Let’s see . It’s not dead but we need some trends bending back soon 

[Greg]

Need that Upper level to dive down a little more to get the SW down stream to go more northeasterly than east-northeasterly.

[Typhoon Tip]

So we are mid way through Phase 8 on the old WH ... 

At which point in time does this expectation on the pattern actually begin to show? 

Some would argue it already is... The EPS and the GEFs are seemingly in some sort of tentative accord on a steeped regime for the 11+ "fantasy league" ..

Daz was speculating that the Euro was mid way through sensing a new solution ... last night when speaking in context for how any such modulation may effect the 13/15th event(s). I liked that rhetorical description at the time - although I don't know if there is any operational empirical basis for expecting models to get hung between two paradigms .. I almost liken it to "if you don't know the answer, pick C".   

I just didn't take that to mean that it would keep being non-committal on the next run.  It's still looking sort of in limbo there... Continuity is grossly under performed over multiple sectors... So, if there is a movement toward the new solution... it makes me wonder if the 00z run simply stalled for a cycle.  I frankly wouldn't pick the Euro run for the mid range any more than the suspected brain dented data formated GFS...  while the atmosphere engineers the least wanted realization along the way.