Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So we need a full phase . Let’s see . It’s not dead but we need some trends bending back soon We actually don't... Yesterday's various asshole solutions by the GGEM and GFS were approaching perfection - never a good expectation for D6+ So ... perhaps it all stands to basic philosophical reason that we awaken today approaching imperfection. Having said that, it certainly all gives the allusion that you need all if to get it done - but that's not so even relative to this pattern. These 24-hour tenor changes are just spectrally opposing, but also negate any in-between ways. There are guidance solutions out there that show light to middling events... but the specter of a fuller phase solution, for the time being, has set sail. I'm actually still cautiously optimistic that some sort of wave with snow will pass through between the 12th and 15th of the month... The biggest hurdle for me, is whether the gradient compression comes back. If that does than even our light to middling chances start dwindling. The reason why is because ... not only are yesterday's asshole models back-stabbing the doe eyed believers by abandoning the N/stream ... the southern component, which could conceivably get something done on its own, would then be susceptible to negative interference/damping should the lower velocity/relaxation prove to be a false hope. The Euro would be blamable if that's true, by the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 A further SW partial phase would work too but going to be hard to come by from where that ridge out west is aligned, If you get an all southern stream s/w to come along then you won't want anything swinging thru the northern stream if it doesn't phase or it will get the boot east as it try to move up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You’ll follow should the pattern “change” morph into 7-10 days of favorable pattern from say Feb 3-12 and then revert I would put an O/U at Bos for year currently at 25” ORH 35.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: A further SW partial phase would work too but going to be hard to come by from where that ridge out west is aligned, If you get an all southern stream s/w to come along then you won't want anything swinging thru the northern stream if it doesn't phase or it will get the boot east as it try to move up the coast. The ridge blows. Sell a big event imo. See you at Funky Murph's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: A further SW partial phase would work too but going to be hard to come by from where that ridge out west is aligned, If you get an all southern stream s/w to come along then you won't want anything swinging thru the northern stream if it doesn't phase or it will get the boot east as it try to move up the coast. Yea. I’m cheering for a stronger southern stream initially in the midwest which would yield a more w-e trajectory but from a further north starting point. That’s the ‘easiest’ way imo to get an event...since timing streams along the EC in this setup is just too difficult atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I’m cheering for a stronger southern stream initially in the midwest which would yield a more w-e trajectory but from a further north starting point. That’s the ‘easiest’ way imo to get an event...timing streams along the EC with this setup is just too difficult atm. Yeah, If we are staring from a more northern standpoint down there, Then it may exit the coast at a higher lat which could still bring snow into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Atmospheric cancer... Never seen such systemic conflict - amazing. That's why the MJO is "unfurling" through 8 as opposed to probing the curve forward. It's because the wave is encountering fluid resistance the whole time; the surrounding hemisphere is fighting the wave as it attempts to tunnel through the negative interference. The AO is trying to be held aloft in spite of the SSW's quantifiable and real suppressive influence above the 60th parallel... Man, if and if-when the MJO gets back around to the evil side, and the SSW wanes ... that's when we see the true and ignomatic destruction of the late winter warm ENSO correlation and the 80s in February... Everyone's at a loss... Don't think that will happen... but, the deviant in me would love to see it actually. ha! I just hope we don't go through a spring like last year... Man, the snow in March was okay ...but I knew it wasn't going to parlay well and it seemed we to deal with miserable gloom mist a lot, late in the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It is boring ... grant you that. As far as that 13/14th thing, I hearken back to my thoughts/first impressions yesterday morning when first seeing the GFS' eye-popper on the BM ... that its synoptic evolution was dubious at the time. I'm pretty sure others echoed that sentiment so I wasn't/not alone. It was fine "within it's own construct" but the super-synopsis wasn't evolving ...or if it was, it was doing so covertly, and it wasn't very clear how or why the GFS was identifying the N/stream the way it was ... blah blah if one wants to go back and read ...it's like page 85 ( ). .. Then, the GGEM threw a seemingly deliberate lie-bone to keep us prick-teased along ... ? Sorry, as unreliable as that model may be, the fact of the matter is, it still uses the physical system of equations to propagate atmospheric phenomenon out in time, so less concision doesn't matter for present philosophy - it's the fact that it had it that should be of interest. If your too stupid to wrap your head around why that is all important and instead feel inclined to chide, I can't help you. It's difficult to feel confident in any call at this time. The irrational school is winning, and the "Stockholm" psychology has long taken its toll. Therein, there's virtually no one that believes based on the unrelenting exception-less abuses ...that we could possibly be preordained to any other reality than a gutted winter. But, objective observer says, ...well wait: last check ... the hemisphere is edging into a pattern change. So the models - yes ...even the Euro - as history shows every time, are prone to increased error. That's because the forcing from different scales is in flux and...well, that's where I just lost the average reader. Sufficed it is to say, they could all be missing the N/stream. Which I still feel the handling above the 40th parallel from S of Alaska clear to NF is why, which is right smack in the region where said pattern change would tend to mean greatest stochastic returns. There's something to be said for the 1998 ALCS ... Imagine Game 4. The Red Sox have just taken a 5-3 lead on the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium, with Pedro Martinez on the Mound. That's the idea of the 8th quadrature MJO pulse correlation with a +PNA and -A0 ... augmented by some SSW prequel logic. But that setting doesn't say anything for why or how everyone in and outside of Baseball knew, that there was no way in hell that Pedro was coming out of that game with a W. Powerless to stop it ... we watched, as Grady Little's meat-headed rah rah Gamma male cowering beneath the specter of Pedro's will to stay in the game could be stopped. In the 7th when he was clearly off his velocity and control. What happens... well, the Red Sox lost 7-5 of course ...or something like that... and then of course that horrible stench of inevitability went on ahead and rotted the rest of the Series and blithely the 'Sox season ended there. But then I think about 2004 ... being 0-3 in the same damn Series against the same damn Yankees ... Could there be more abysmal aroma? ... Makes the paragraph above feel like a b-j by comparison... Yet we all no what happened. I guess the moral of this, which no one has likely even read this far ... is not to get caught up in the trend-weeds. I think if folks just really learned to live and breath and intrinsically accept at all scales of reality, from Plank time scales to eternity and back, that there will always be utterly unpredictable disappointment levied ... like some great taxation for the privilege of existential sentience ... it wouldn't allow such conditionalizing guide one's outlook. That was game 7 2003, I still get your point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 That vortmax I mentioned last night that digs westward into the ridge made no sense. This run it sinks to the backside of the developing trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: That was game 7 2003, I still get your point Only 79 days until Red Sox opening day! Crazy how fast that happens. Time to make winter hay between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Only 79 days until Red Sox opening day! Crazy how fast that happens. Time to make winter hay between now and then. lol stop stealing our snow! pressure is on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Pretty stout ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That vortmax I mentioned last night that digs westward into the ridge made no sense. This run it sinks to the backside of the developing trough. Southern s/w further north, Looks like its going to be a late phase though but still brings some snow north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Getting tickled by the N stream a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Closer but no cigar. Maybe some very light snow for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 24 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: That was game 7 2003, I still get your point OH.. you know what - ur right. ... I don't know why but I keep mistaking that year's sorted disappointment with the terrible umpiring of 1998, which was an other Series debacle with the Yankees. That's the one where the 2nd basemen missed the tag that would have ended some pivotal inning that seemed to magically typify the whole Series... Both years ended with similar distaste and luck seeming to favor the rich - oy. But 2003 was the year where Grady Little and Pedro's ego teamed up in a particularly pernicious way - anyway, fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Southern s/w further north, Looks like its going to be a late phase though but still brings some snow north. Yup, will be late but a good improvement overall especially early on. About two hours to go before our hopes are crushed once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 You can still get some pretty big changes at h5 at d5/6 so I wouldn’t rule this out just yet...even if Raymond has moved on already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup, will be late but a good improvement overall especially early on. About two hours to go before our hopes are crushed once again. Really need that northern stream s/w do dive down the back of the s/w down south much sooner that's moving north back over the lower ohio valley of the US, But with that ridge being to far to the east out west, Its a tall task to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: OH.. you know what - ur right. ... I don't know why but I keep mistaking that year's sorted disappointment with the terrible umpiring of 1998, which was an other Series debacle with the Yankees. That's the one where the 2nd basemen missed the tag that would have ended some pivotal inning that seemed to magically typify the whole Series... Both years ended with similar distaste and luck seeming to favor the rich - oy. But 2003 was the year where Grady Little and Pedro's ego teamed up in a particularly pernicious way - I think Pedro also came in in relief that year - but against Cleveland in game 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Pats / Chargers in a chilly, but sunny stadium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GGEM is really close too. It actually hits Jimmy on the Cape pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Pats / Chargers in a chilly, but sunny stadium? It’ll be snowing and low 20’s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can still get some pretty big changes at h5 at d5/6 so I wouldn’t rule this out just yet...even if Raymond has moved on already. Not from a moderate or minor event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This rendition of the operational GFS features a couple of headaches... 1 ... the N/stream is still pretty much a no show. Prior to any would-be commingling of a bodily fluids for giving birth to a cyclone .. .the western Canadian handling is different. The prior pristine bomb destinies really began with a ridge modulation in the short side of the mid range up there in those previous runs.. such that they constructed the means to send an important piece of N/stream to dive S ... But ever since then, these models won't commit to those important events up north. Starting to smack as though it was just a sprayed solution to begin with that lucked out in timing with a southern streams. we'll see. 2 ... meanwhile, the southern stream is also different now... It's being smeared into a couple of wave spaces... It's like taking the main SW ejecta and bifurcating ... smearing the first piece off S of the Del Marva and leaving some semblance of wave space back over the TV region... From these two launch points, I could rightfully write ten different plausibilities, all of which could not be discounted ...but would happen to range from partly sunny to history ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is really close too. It actually hits Jimmy on the Cape pretty good. Well then, it has to be right....it must be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is really close too. It actually hits Jimmy on the Cape pretty good. Nantucket for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’ll be snowing and low 20’s Ya just like today was 2-4 and then 1-3, and you were saying nothing has changed. You might want to practice a little restraint with these calls...they've been way off of late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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