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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Hope you guys realize just how close this weekend event is to doing more than possibly kissing the coastline. So so close at h5. Even though surface looks like we are 200 miles from moisture. The 2 pieces of energy we need to phase and caues a boom, are within a nose hair of making this happen. If only the southern one would just come off texas coast into Gom halfway between brownsville and houston, or heaven forbid houston area someone will get thumped. Right now its been brownsville. Northern stream is about to trend back sharp enough and come in behind ss energy. May just be a long fly ball at the warning track, but still has time to clear the left field fence.

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4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Hope you guys realize just how close this weekend event is to doing more than possibly kissing the coastline. So so close at h5. Even though surface looks like we are 200 miles from moisture. The 2 pieces of energy we need to phase and caues a boom, are within a nose hair of making this happen. If only the southern one would just come off texas coast into Gom halfway between brownsville and houston, or heaven forbid houston area someone will get thumped. Right now its been brownsville. Northern stream is about to trend back sharp enough and come in behind ss energy. May just be a long fly ball at the warning track, but still has time to clear the left field fence.

Like your optimism. Believe with models showing possible snows next week that’s it’s a matter of time. This is our best chance since December 9th. 

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Hope you guys realize just how close this weekend event is to doing more than possibly kissing the coastline. So so close at h5. Even though surface looks like we are 200 miles from moisture. The 2 pieces of energy we need to phase and caues a boom, are within a nose hair of making this happen. If only the southern one would just come off texas coast into Gom halfway between brownsville and houston, or heaven forbid houston area someone will get thumped. Right now its been brownsville. Northern stream is about to trend back sharp enough and come in behind ss energy. May just be a long fly ball at the warning track, but still has time to clear the left field fence.

You are talking about next weekend, correct?

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3 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

You are talking about next weekend, correct?

No, he is talking about late this weekend.... and I agree. This one is closer than a lot of folks think.

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Good luck over that way to our coastal folks.  I concur, trends are encouraging for a surprise.  Doesn’t mean it has to, but it is getting closer and closer with a little time left to go.

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i see it creeping to the coast, but temps don’t seem low enough.  Down my way in Myrtle beach they appear to be 40ish but even toward the outer banks is mid-upper 30s.  Any reason to believe if this trends closer, the temps will play along?

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Next week has potential mid week and following weekend.

But to be very clear, im referencing the potential storm for this coming weekend. You guys watch h5 and youll see we are on the half inch line, not 1yard line and about to cross the plane of the goalline for a Touchdown. Its amazing how big a difference downstream at the surface it will make if one of two or both pieces of energy can just get the slightest nudge here or there. These nudges are 50 to 100 miles and 48 to 60 hours from this pivotal intersection with each other. This has some pretty significant implications for not just ENC, upper SC coast, but a lot of central and possibly western NC, Upstate. Tonight at 0z we need to see the trend continue and not head back to more seperation. This is a swing at the fence type deal. Its eitheir gonna be a homerun or a whiff, no middle ground. I can tell you if we miss it'll be by the smallest of margins the way models are showing it right now. 

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45 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

No, he is talking about late this weekend.... and I agree. This one is closer than a lot of folks think.

I prefer suppression for us coastal guys until just a couple days out. We never fair well when we are shown to get hammered early. The nw shift always kills us.

I remember a storm several years back that was suppose to give the immediate coast a inch or so. Very tight gradient in qpf and it shifted nw by 50 miles and they got 7 or 8 inches right on the beach.

As weird as it sounds for us coastal guys I'm 100% happy with where we are. Not expecting anything and if it does work NW maybe just maybe I'll see some snow if temps are good. Nothing to lose.

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Very nice trends on the ensembles showing the fabled west based -nao may move in during Feb. Looks like the Davis Strait block builds next week over top of the TPV. Unfortunatlely the tpv is really strong so it bullies the block this go around. However, I'm starting to believe it's a warning shot that it might become a stable feature down the road a little. Always very difficult to feel confident that a real -nao is going to happen until its happening but you have to like the direction the gefs, eps, and geps are going. Even the pac is showing signs of getting right. Fingers crossed for now. I'm as sick of rug pulls as anyone...

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Very nice trends on the ensembles showing the fabled west based -nao may move in during Feb. Looks like the Davis Strait block builds next week over top of the TPV. Unfortunatlely the tpv is really strong so it bullies the block this go around. However, I'm starting to believe it's a warning shot that it might become a stable feature down the road a little. Always very difficult to feel confident that a real -nao is going to happen until its happening but you have to like the direction the gefs, eps, and geps are going. Even the pac is showing signs of getting right. Fingers crossed for now. I'm as sick of rug pulls as anyone...

We usually find a strong -NAO, but we usually wait till late March and April to pull it off.  haha

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14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Next week has potential mid week and following weekend.

But to be very clear, im referencing the potential storm for this coming weekend. You guys watch h5 and youll see we are on the half inch line, not 1yard line and about to cross the plane of the goalline for a Touchdown. Its amazing how big a difference downstream at the surface it will make if one of two or both pieces of energy can just get the slightest nudge here or there. These nudges are 50 to 100 miles and 48 to 60 hours from this pivotal intersection with each other. This has some pretty significant implications for not just ENC, upper SC coast, but a lot of central and possibly western NC, Upstate. Tonight at 0z we need to see the trend continue and not head back to more seperation. This is a swing at the fence type deal. Its eitheir gonna be a homerun or a whiff, no middle ground. I can tell you if we miss it'll be by the smallest of margins the way models are showing it right now. 

Ok Snow.   Let see what happens.  I'm in your corner but not sure given the models wild output  

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1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

We usually find a strong -NAO, but we usually wait till late March and April to pull it off.  haha

Truth. Last March looks great on the composites but too little too late. It can be maddening at times. When a great longwave pattern sets up 2-3 weeks too late it feels like such a ripoff. We haven't had a legit -ao/nao combo during prime snow climo since 2011. It's been a long time to put it lightly. Maybe this year will mark the reversal of blockless winters. Time will tell. It's still Jan so we're not racing the clock...yet

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Truth. Last March looks great on the composites but too little too late. It can be maddening at times. When a great longwave pattern sets up 2-3 weeks too late it feels like such a ripoff. We haven't had a legit -ao/nao combo during prime snow climo since 2011. It's been a long time to put it lightly. Maybe this year will mark the reversal of blockless winters. Time will tell. It's still Jan so we're not racing the clock...yet

Yes, a rip off indeed.  We have almost been able to set our watches by the late blooming -NAO’s for the last several years.  That said, I feel good if we can get the PAC under control the NAO will follow with plenty of time left here......and especially in your neck of the woods.

Also, I have been extremely encouraged with the changes with the LR ensembles.  It’s actually been fun to watch the last couple of days, plus it silences the negative nancies for a bit.  Not even incremental changes, but pretty dramatic which tells me the looks we see the next few days may get better even quicker.  The OP’s were throwing hints for a couple of runs before the ensembles started changing.  One of the few times that will happen.  All in all we should have some good times ahead.

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The weeklies looked absolutely stunning. A brief relaxation in the pattern at the beginning of February, then back to deep eastern troughing all the way into March.

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13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Yes, a rip off indeed.  We have almost been able to set our watches by the late blooming -NAO’s for the last several years.  That said, I feel good if we can get the PAC under control the NAO will follow with plenty of time left here......and especially in your neck of the woods.

Also, I have been extremely encouraged with the changes with the LR ensembles.  It’s actually been fun to watch the last couple of days, plus it silences the negative nancies for a bit.  Not even incremental changes, but pretty dramatic which tells me the looks we see the next few days may get better even quicker.  The OP’s were throwing hints for a couple of runs before the ensembles started changing.  One of the few times that will happen.  All in all we should have some good times ahead.

I never bought the disaster that was showing up a few days ago. All the ensembles showed the same tpv drop and drift into eastern Canada + the -nao. I've never seen that type of progression just evaporate and flip to warm in the east. It didn't make sense. All we can do now is keep fingers crossed and hope incremental  improvements continue. My gut instincts are telling me we're in good shape. 

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29 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Ok Snow.   Let see what happens.  I'm in your corner but not sure given the models wild output  

Heres how I see our odds. They play powerball in 50 states. But this storm is like the powerball and the only 2 states who can buy the winning ticket are NC,SC, heck Ill throw SeVA in there as well as some carnival cruise ship passengers on a boat 100 miles off the coast. But someone has the winning number and guranteed winner. So lets hope its someone in sc,nc,seva. And then lets hope when they scratch it off its frozen precip and not cold rain for the prize.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I never bought the disaster that was showing up a few days ago. All the ensembles showed the same tpv drop and drift into eastern Canada + the -nao. I've never seen that type of progression just evaporate and flip to warm in the east. It didn't make sense. All we can do now is keep fingers crossed and hope incremental  improvements continue. My gut instincts are telling me we're in good shape. 

You follow your gut and stay away from JI and youll be alright.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

You follow your gut and stay away from JI and youll be alright.

It was truly hilarious recently when things looked really dark, Ji was breaking out the optimism.  PSUHoffman christened him the "Merchant of Hope".

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11 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

wake me when some of these runs show frozen precip into florida

otherwise this looks pretty boring 

Need to wait till the pole shift completes.

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11 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

wake me when some of these runs show frozen precip into florida

otherwise this looks pretty boring 

xlarge.jpg

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14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Ji is old hat in the MA.  It's that other poster from another forum that brings the troll

I think they banned that guy.  I am not sure if that was a good idea or not, as it seemed to draw the whole forum together in a show of unity in how much they hated him.

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LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will help to start off the work
week on the dry side. However the models are still indicating
another surface cold front approaching the area on Tuesday.
There should be some moisture return to the region ahead of this
cold front. As the front approaches Tuesday, rain chances will
increase through the day. Front will move rapidly east Tuesday
night as colder air moves back into the cwa. On the back side of
the exiting front, there may still be enough moisture across the
northern counties to briefly cause a mixture of rain/snow as the
precip exits. Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists that far
out in the forecast period, and confidence remains low. The cold
front is expected to be east of the area by Wednesday, with
drier and colder conditions returning.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

ICON looks like it's got the storm next weekend.... coming up from the gulf.

If Atlanta is going to get a storm next week, you can bet that it will be at the absolute worst time to make Super Bowl weekend an absolute mess.

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