• Member Statistics

    15,696
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mcninja
    Newest Member
    Mcninja
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

850s are only cold enough for snow for the initial onset of precipitation in NC.  However, the lower-level cold air hangs on for a long time.  Lots of sleet and freezing rain on this setup.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though this is simply a GFS fever dream, it feels like a scrimmage so I checked soundings for MBY. The two best things I’ve got: 

 

1. Plymouth State has expanded their GFS soundings! Used to be you could only get them 120 hours out. Now they seem to go for the whole run and in my opinion, they are the best soundings on the Internet. 
 

2. MBY stays safely in the snow/sleet category until the end.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the relative weakness of the wave this seems like nice transition zone between 40 and 85 with a nasty, nasty ice storm into SC

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS offers some support for op. CMC has no wave other than the weekend rain storm. Will have to watch trends for a few more model cycles.

sfct.conus.png

qpf_012h.conus.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

GEFS offers some support for op. CMC has no wave other than the weekend rain storm. Will have to watch trends for a few more model cycles.

sfct.conus.png

qpf_012h.conus.png

Temps look iffy, even in N.C., unless there are very low DPs and those are temps above, before precip arrives?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Temps look iffy, even in N.C., unless there are very low DPs and those are temps above, before precip arrives?

That's an ensemble mean with lots of spread in the members... operational is quite chilly.
 

This is valid 18z..... heart of the event when already well north of 1" of liquid has fallen in Charlotte.

2m temps:

2m.thumb.png.461f9dac08e3d909656f158510b2f7f9.png

 

950mb temps:

950.thumb.png.a28d5bb4d2503cf13cddb95dbf84e6f5.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, msuwx said:

That's an ensemble mean with lots of spread in the members... operational is quite chilly.
 

This is valid 18z..... heart of the event when already well north of 1" of liquid has fallen in Charlotte.

2m temps:

2m.thumb.png.461f9dac08e3d909656f158510b2f7f9.png

 

950mb temps:

950.thumb.png.a28d5bb4d2503cf13cddb95dbf84e6f5.png

Which would lead me to believe that would be mostly sleet, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cb4375ed846163fc5e82ba119fb1c5db.jpg

 

A 1043 high over the MN/Iowa border should result in a cold press MUCH farther South than central Missouri. The whole northern fringe of this should be snow. This tells me either the model is completely off, or the there is very marginal cold to work with. Remember, cold is ALWAYS the first and biggest concern in our area; espcially outside of elevation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

cb4375ed846163fc5e82ba119fb1c5db.jpg

 

A 1043 high over the MN/Iowa border should result in a cold press MUCH farther South than central Missouri. The whole northern fringe of this should be snow. This tells me either the model is completely off, or the there is very marginal cold to work with. Remember, cold is ALWAYS the first and biggest concern in our area; espcially outside of elevation. 

That’s not a precip type map only precip rate 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Relatively big changes at 500mb on the 12z Euro.  Much slower with the shortwave and leaves it behind similar to the GFS from the main trough.  Precipitation blossoms in the Gulf and moves ashore.  Where the CAD sets up??  GFS has historically been better with that compared to other models imho.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like our cold source just has to be rather unimpressive otherwise I feel the cold press would be much better given this look. 

935117734_Screenshot_20191207-1411022.thumb.png.e0f5fe68245c0f03f7005b9507819c0b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I feel like our cold source just has to be rather unimpressive otherwise I feel the cold press would be much better given this look. 

935117734_Screenshot_20191207-1411022.thumb.png.e0f5fe68245c0f03f7005b9507819c0b.png

The timing on the euro precip wise is better but compared to earlier runs   It's not as cold nor dry over the mid Atlantic thursday..some 5 to 8 degrees warmer with temps/dps..which obviously means temps downstream arent as cold either. Quite a spread/variability this week among the models that is for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is stronger (a good trend) with wave 1 compared to prev run (which is the only wave that is moving through at just the right time with CAD in place), however it's not strong enough with wave 2 kicking it away without much more development.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Which would lead me to believe that would be mostly sleet, right?

Yes. Lots of sleet. 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z gfs a bit faster with the wave and moves in just as the CAD starts to work in.. not enough to change over to ice well into SC this time, though. Threading that needle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Features are all still there on the 18z GFS. Vort moves in slightly faster....barely. But the players remain on the field. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RAH thoughts at this time...

Cyclogenesis will then occur from the GOM to the Sern and 
middle Atlantic coast later Fri into the weekend. While 
precipitation chances will consequently increase, the preceding 
Arctic high will have retreated by that time, given an unfavorably 
configured mid-upr flow pattern for maintaining a cold high for 
wintry precipitation in cntl NC. As such, any p-type concerns would 
be brief and limited to onset over the nw Piedmont early Fri, if at 
all. 

It should be noted that the 06Z and 12Z deterministic GFS solutions 
that depict a much stronger, lead srn stream perturbation --and 
cyclogenesis off the sern US coast centered around Thu-Thu night-- 
has little deterministic or ensemble support and is consequently 
considered an outlier/low probability solution at this time. Such a 
solution, however, would be an icy one owing to the maximized 
presence of Arctic high pressure that will otherwise be in place 
during that time. 
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH thoughts at this time...

Cyclogenesis will then occur from the GOM to the Sern and 
middle Atlantic coast later Fri into the weekend. While 
precipitation chances will consequently increase, the preceding 
Arctic high will have retreated by that time, given an unfavorably 
configured mid-upr flow pattern for maintaining a cold high for 
wintry precipitation in cntl NC. As such, any p-type concerns would 
be brief and limited to onset over the nw Piedmont early Fri, if at 
all. 

It should be noted that the 06Z and 12Z deterministic GFS solutions 
that depict a much stronger, lead srn stream perturbation --and 
cyclogenesis off the sern US coast centered around Thu-Thu night-- 
has little deterministic or ensemble support and is consequently 
considered an outlier/low probability solution at this time. Such a 
solution, however, would be an icy one owing to the maximized 
presence of Arctic high pressure that will otherwise be in place 
during that time. 

Yeah Solak, I read this two different ways. One RAH is telling us the GFS is an outlier (for good reasons);  but two they're thinking it could happen. (so)Low odds but they need to cover their butts. We need to hope they keep mentioning the possibility in tonight's discussion,

I will say I have grown to really respect the mets at RAH over the years.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah Solak, I read this two different ways. One RAH is telling us the GFS is an outlier (for good reasons);  but two they're thinking it could happen. (so)Low odds but they need to cover their butts. We need to hope they keep mentioning the possibility in tonight's discussion,

I will say I have grown to really respect the mets at RAH over the years.  

Gotta mention the chance plus cover your ass,  but as we know, cold rain usually reigns supreme :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.