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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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RAH:

Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better 
agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude 
differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the 
next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 
12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower 
ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread 
remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream 
impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. 
Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of 
low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic 
front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the 
development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 
inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type 
other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no 
creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high 
chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day 
expected on Friday. 
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I'm not buying frozen precip threat until we get some more credibility from ensembles. It'd be a major climatology-buster outside mountains, otherwise...

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2 hours ago, JacobNC said:

we’re on a climo-busting roll this year, with the hottest day of the year being in October.

Yeah, but these days, we tend to bust climo the other way.  I'd be happy to just have a cool crisp November.

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5 hours ago, JoshM said:

Euro gives most of NC a little love.

large.us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019110400_198_480_215.png.a955451cd636c7e8c18df54a4ea61a23.png

Who else loves snow maps in early November? :D Doubt it'll happen but let our tracking season (letdown season) begin!

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Our best snow chances tend to happen with deep cold air mass ahead of it. I don't like the cold-chasing moisture events like models are hinting... they don't pan out often. 

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GFS (for Raleigh) has gone from 1.6" liquid (18z 11/3) to 0.025" (12z 11/4) for the upcoming 7 day period. :lmao: 

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23 hours ago, Solak said:

RAH:

Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better 
agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude 
differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the 
next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 
12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower 
ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread 
remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream 
impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. 
Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of 
low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic 
front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the 
development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 
inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type 
other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no 
creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high 
chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day 
expected on Friday. 

The 1-2 inches widespread significant rainfall mentioned above is now...

While the cold front may lack widespread precipitation with it, it 
will not lack for cold air. 

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15 hours ago, TheWxGuy said:

 

Great site.  Wondering how they managed to leave North Carolina (Raleigh or Charlotte) off their "local" options when they have Nashville, TN?  

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10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks DRYYYY

Right back to the drought.  Time to fire up the sprinklers.  Grass growing season extended for another 8-10 days!

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z GFS coming in with a Snowstorm for the South next week..

Euro was hinting at that a day or two ago. Looks like another cold chasing moisture. One things for sure, the cold hammer will drop!

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