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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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00z EPS Mean jogged south this run...matches the idea of the Op run.  Should be improved members in there for NC into parts of the upstate.  It was a little better with the confluence over the NE and the wave came thru the SW states at a slightly lower latitude

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

00z EPS Mean jogged south this run...matches the idea of the Op run.  Should be improved members in there for NC into parts of the upstate.  It was a little better with the confluence over the NE and the wave came thru the SW states at a slightly lower latitude

I'm still holding on to hope here in Oconee. Eps hasnt waivered much from an I85 special. Preciate your analysis and pbpk Grit!

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Hell I go back to Charlotte tomorrow for work then back home saturday..may have to stay the weekend in Charlotte to see snow. I expect some different solutions once this wave gets sampled. Crazy what a great track it consistently is showing though.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

EPS Mean Snow

fWNUk40.png

Unreal that the EPS mean is 10 inches for parts of central NC more than a few days out from the system

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Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol

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16 minutes ago, ajr said:

The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits

64C655E3-848B-4EED-B0B9-A160E2AFD7BD.gif

ajr - temperatures are no doubt in question for most areas...but on your loop, it's not an apples to apples comparison because the storm has slowed (i.e. the first model run on Nov 30 in your loop has the sfc low east of Maine at 00z on Mon, while the last model run in your loop on Dec 4 has the sfc low off the SC coast...so, if you go back and look at hr216 from the Nov30 run when the storm is approaching, you can see that the temps are even worse than tonight's run (because the storm on that old run is tracking farther north compared to tonight's run)...hope that makes sense

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17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol

Where'd you see that ?

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17 minutes ago, shahroz98 said:

Where'd you see that ?

On Weatherbell. It’s a paid site. But just speaking on the rest of N GA I’m lucky to be living where I am I suppose. Outside of the extreme NE mountains snowy members is probably more in the range of 10-15 out of 51 depending on exact location. But I guess it’s pretty much to be expected when climatology greatly favors the mountains in N GA when it comes to snow.

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The euro is an entire day slower than the GFS/FV3. That's a pretty striking difference in the model suites and guessing that's why the EURO is warmer, even though it improved a tick this morning.

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NWS GSP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday: Confidence continues to grow that a
significant winter storm will impact portions of the forecast area
beginning sometime Saturday and continuing in earnest Sunday and
possibly evening Monday. However, the details this far out are still
sketchy at best as any small changes in the track or strength of the
storm system or parent sfc high pressure to the north could make the
different be mostly a cold rain or significant ice/snow. The
greatest confidence in significant ice/snow accumulations continues
to be across the mountains and east facing foothills where WPC
continues to advertise a 50-70 percent chance of winter storm
warning level ice/snow accumulations. The latest forecast blends the
EC and GFS, leaning towards the slower EC in line with neighboring
offices and WPC. Now for the forecast details as they stand now.

Zonal flow will continue into the extended time frame Friday with
surface high pressure continue to exert its influence across the
region into Saturday. The net result will be fair skies with
reinforcing cool and dry air Friday night as air damming or a wedge
sets up east of the mountains Friday night, which will likely
persist through the weekend. This will set the stage for the
potentially significant winter storm as wet bulb temperatures fall
into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the FA Saturday. An amplified
upper trough will push through the southern Plains states into the
Deep South Friday into Saturday with an attendant sfc low pressure
system riding the Gulf of Mexico coastline before moving off the
Southeast coastline Sunday. The CAD and increasing clouds and precip
Saturday into Sunday will lock in cold temps with lows only in the
20s to 30s and highs only in the 30s to low 40s this weekend. This
scenario looks to favor mostly wintry precipitation and possibly
mostly snow across the mountains with a mix bag of precipitation
across the NC Piedmont with some combination of rain or mixed
precipitation further south into the Upstate of SC and northeast GA.
While its too early to get into precipitation type details, wouldn`t
be surprised to see more wintry look to precip across the region
near onset and towards the end with more rain or ice in between when
the storm is closest and pushes warmer air at mid levels (aka warm
nose) into the region. The heaviest precip currently looks to take
place Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the wintry this
weekend, model guidance shows some potential for significant snow on
the backside of the storm late Sunday into Monday. Now is the time
to put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for this and
future potential winter storms.


.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For what it's worth, the 6z NAM is much colder then the 0z/6z GFS (at hour 84) with the push of surface dew points. CAD being under-modeled?  

That’s good to hear - in the past few years the NAM has handled temps better than globals (Jan 2017 comes to mind)

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06Z GFS significantly further South compaired to 00Z at hour 96.

Edit: Ends up about the same place though at hour 120. By hour 150 the low ends up further North over the NC sounds just West of Hatteras. compaired to off the coast East of the NC/SC border a lot more rain then snow for a lot of people. :(

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I think the models are beginning to sniff the colder CAD air mass. Within the last two model cycles (0Z AND 6z), the EC, GFS, and ICON have all turned colder compared to previous runs. So far, the FV 3 has been leading the way. With that said, don't be surprised if the snow ends up being largely confined to the northern Piedmont/Foothills/Mountains. 

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Just now, Poimen said:

I think the models are beginning to sniff the colder CAD air mass. Within the last two model cycles (0Z AND 6z), the EC, GFS, and ICON have all turned colder compared to previous runs. So far, the FV 3 has been leading the way. With that said, don't be surprised if the snow ends up being largely confined to the northern Piedmont/Foothills/Mountains. 

Are you speaking about the strength of the high pressure or the surface temperatures?  I’ve noticed the high trending stronger on the gfs. It’s not in perfect position to funnel the cold in, but we usually see the surface temperatures trend down in the days leading up to CAD events. I’d love to hear Lookout’s thoughts too. He knows his CAD!

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2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Are you speaking about the strength of the high pressure or the surface temperatures?  I’ve noticed the high trending stronger on the gfs. It’s not in perfect position to funnel the cold in, but we usually see the surface temperatures trend down in the days leading up to CAD events. I’d love to hear Lookout’s thoughts too. He knows his CAD!

Perhaps both, but in general I think they're picking up on colder surface temps. The GFS soundings for our area looked considerably colder this run than previous runs through the entire column. 

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2 minutes ago, ajr said:

Slightly faster but weaker low.. slightly colder at the 850 level through hr 90

850mb moving in faster for the upstate S.C. area. Let’s see if it can hold on and continue to push southward. 

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FV3 ends up climbing the coast and smacking the MA. It looks like a front-end snow for the CAD/favored climo areas of NC, transitioning to freezing rain/sleet, then perhaps rain. 

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