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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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7 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Yeah I hope they are wrong but normally when they are meh or have low confidence  about a storm they are right quite a bit. I hope that changes today !

It's basically RAH vs every model at this point. They will have to cave if these models keep it up  (atleast for the Triad) today or tomorrow or they risk it being too late too sound an alarm.

I understand they don't want their torecacts to busts but I don't remember a winter storm ever getting this general model concensus for this many days straight 

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18 minutes ago, sarcean said:

RAH is still almost refusing to acknowledge the possibility of significant snow

 

 

Wintry precipitation is still likely this weekend and confidence in said occurrence is high, however the exact timing, amounts and p-types are still uncertain due to continued model differences and
thus low confidence. Best chances for wintry precipitation are still
along and north of the US-1 corridor.

Overview: A pair of upper level lows/troughs will develop  on Saturday, one off the Southern Rockies/Desert Southwest and the other over the Northern High Plains/SW Canada. The former will shift eastward then east-northeastward through the ARKLATEX and into the TN Valley while the latter will dive south-southeastward, deepening
over the Plains/Midwest. The southern stream low will become absorbed into the stronger northern stream low over the MS/TN Valley Monday/Monday night as it continues its southward dive toward the
Gulf. Expect strong moisture advection into the Gulf Coast states and Southeast US ahead of the system Saturday and Sunday. Cold, high pressure will dominate at the surface over the Great Lakes region, ridging into western/central NC through the period in a CAD setup.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop along the Gulf Coast on Saturday in response to the upper level system. The surface low is
expected to move along the Gulf Coast, through the panhandle of FL and northeast along the Carolina coast, while the wedge remains in place over northwestern portions of the area. As a result, there will be a very strong pressure gradient from west to east across NC on Sunday/Sunday night. Even the slightest shift in track, timing, temperature, etc. will result in significant impacts to the
forecast.

Timing: The latest medium-range models suggest precipitation will likely move into central NC very slowly from the south-southwest late Saturday or Saturday night. The ECMWF continues to be a tad
slower than the GFS, though the timing has come into significantly better agreement from 24 hours ago.

P-type: As mentioned above, a lot of uncertainty still remains with respect to wintry precipitation, as any small change/difference in timing, temperature, thermal profile, etc. will impact the p-type. As past events would suggest, a purely snow event is not likely as there is usually a mix of wintry p-types. Expect precipitation to
start as rain across the far south and southwest, though chances are looking decent for a mix of rain/snow across the northwest half of
central NC when precipitation moves in overnight. A mix of p-types, especially over the northwest half of central NC, is likely overnight as temperatures fall, while the southeast could remain
rain for the duration. Expect several p-type changes throughout the
event, especially along and north of US-1, with snow, sleet and freezing rain all possibilities. Regardless of p-type, liquid equivalents could range from one to two inches. Will hold of on getting too cute with any snow amounts at this time given the degree of uncertainty and how the varying p-types would impact accumulations.

Temperatures: Highs on Sunday expected to top out in the low to mid 40s while Sunday will be much colder in the NW, with highs topping out around freezing while the SE should reach into mid 40s again.
Lows both Saturday and Sunday nights will be similar, upper 20s to
mid 30s Saturday night and low 30s to around 40 degrees Sundayb night. Monday highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s expected at this time. -KC

Monday night through Wednesday: Medium range model guidance in
general agreement depicting a deep upper level low traversing the SE U.S., initiating yet another deepening sfc wave just offshore of SC/southern NC. The string dynamics associated with the upper level low and the potential for the sfc wave to sling moisture back into central NC. The models have trended a little farther south with the system and attendant precipitation. Thus, expect a chance of rain or rain/snow mixed primarily focused across the southern counties Monday night. If the system drifts just a little farther north, could see a threat for snow across the northern counties with some light accumulation possible. Min temperatures generally in the 20s to the lower 30s.

The upper level system and associated coastal low will sweep quickly eastward and offshore Tuesday with improving weather conditions into mid week. If there is any residual snow/ice pack across the Piedmont, could see temperatures Tuesday night drop into the teens. Away from the snow/ice pack, expect overnight lows in the 20s. Afternoon highs will remain well below normal with high temperatures in the 40s expected, closer to 50 across the far south southeast by
mid week. -WSS

Last year's bust is still fresh in their minds. Seems like they're letting NC climo take precedence over model guidance and they won't sound the horn until they know for sure. tbh i don't blame them.  But i think they will eventually.  Then again there's been storms in the past where i felt like i knew better and was certain we would get a good storm but RAH's forecast of cold rain to trace amounts ended up being right.  These guys are skilled mets. we shall see. Insert other media

 

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7 minutes ago, sarcean said:

It's basically RAH vs every model at this point. They will have to cave if these models keep it up  (atleast for the Triad) today or tomorrow or they risk it being too late too sound an alarm.

I understand they don't want their torecacts to busts but I don't remember a winter storm ever getting this general model concensus for this many days straight 

History also told us Florence should have went out to sea, and it the models were right.

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1 hour ago, ajr said:

From RAH this morning:

Overall reads as more bullish compared to prior ("It's too early for specific amounts, but an inch or two is not out of the question in the Triad region, with a non-zero chance of greater amounts.") - I'm not sure what it means to be "too cute with any snow amounts" though. 

The "too cute" comment caught my attention too.  I think RAH is taking the models with a grain of salt and, may, being/attempting to be "realistic".  12"+ before Xmas in north central NC is a little hard to believe, but I would expect more from the local NWS office than a snarky comment.  If the snow models are wrong, explain why.

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Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days and i learned alot from his discussions

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1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days

He posted a in-depth video last night. He’s all in!

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Looking carefully at 0z and 6z guidance, it is important to note a very small, but almost universal model trend to relax the CAD. It only amounts to 20-30 miles, but there is a slight retreat in the southern extent and duration of cold air in, I believe, every model I saw. When it happens for two consecutive runs, it becomes more significant. Plenty of time, of course, for it to trend back. But right now, the idea that the models will catch on to the CAD as we get closer has not proven to be true.  

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2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days

Ive heard he is all in. Big Frosty might give us a taste.

HurricaneTracker had a great write up in the Mountain/foothills thread last night. 

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The FV3-GFS is coming in slightly warmer with surface and 850 temps but still a monster. It's out to hr 96. Just looking at the maps it looks like RDU gets over 1" liquid equivalent of snow before any type of mixing.  

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15 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

The "too cute" comment caught my attention too.  I think RAH is taking the models with a grain of salt and, may, being/attempting to be "realistic".  12"+ before Xmas in north central NC is a little hard to believe, but I would expect more from the local NWS office than a snarky comment.  If the snow models are wrong, explain why.

That is what I am looking for, too. If you have some other reason or technology showing the models are wrong, then what is it? Just because it is rare to get a storm like the models show here and this early in December is not enough reason.

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The 6Z Canadian is a snow beast for the I40-85 corridor from Asheville through the Triad. It looks like it has relatively narrow corridor of mixed frozen precip roughly from north of Charlotte to south of the Triad and then toward the Triangle. It seems that all of the guidance is converging on the arrival of precip in the NC piedmont to the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with the exception of the NAM. 

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Canadian every run keeps getting RN/SN line further south. It had it up in VA this time yesterday. In fact it was the only model that had MBY all rain, even NC Mtns/Foothills. Not anymore, finally getting a sniff/clue.

And as far as RAH fcst office. This is par for the course. If they had to be graded on 3-5 day forecast , they would be unemployed. We see and deal with this all the time over in the triad.

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9 minutes ago, wake4est said:

It's so juicy.

fv3p_asnow_eus_25.png

That weather map isn’t very accurate. Not sure why people continue to post it. No way I get 20 inches plus in Greenville. Probably not even half that. 

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Canadian every run keeps getting RN/SN line further south. It had it up in VA this time yesterday. In fact it was the only model that had MBY all rain, even NC Mtns/Foothills. Not anymore, finally getting a sniff/clue.

And as far as RAH fcst office. This is par for the course. If they had to be graded on 3-5 day forecast , they would be unemployed. We see and deal with this all the time over in the triad.

What's your guess for our backyard?  I'm think around 8" of snow/sleet with closer to a foot for GSO and foot plus for just NW of Winston.

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One disturbing thing is that the GFS soundings are consistently showing less than full saturation in the snow growth region early Sunday morning, which coincides with the heaviest precip and coldest portion of the storm through the column. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I'd like to see full saturation up there. 

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1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... nam might be the driest model.

That's because they take CAD more into account then others. We are all trying to jump ahead of ourselves with the tweaking of each model. Any of us who have been around awhile knows that there are many variables alive at this point. And we know that almost every piece has to happen, in the right order, for even a hint of a big snow storm for most of us. Most models are in agreement, but they are also so close to having a little of everything. So it comes down to what almost every snow storm comes down to here...location , location, location. I'm seeing a wet bulb forecast right below freezing from Northern Laurens all the way north. And the dew point just below that. Nam is showing classic CAD, which would be good if the wet bulb is correct, but could also present problems. If the CAD sets up too quickly, the air dries out. If it moves in too slowly, the low pressure warm air will probably be too much. Although I do not think they 2nd part will happen because I do not see this storm moving more north like they have been thinking. I think we are still very uncertain either way. With it having a chance to be snow bound 88 all over again, to another crazy ice storm. I do think the more West you are, without getting out of the CAD areas, the better chance you got if you are not in the mountains of WNC. Let's just all cross our fingers, or go stay at a Walmart in Asheville LOL

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31 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm.  The guy was amazing during my lurking days and i learned alot from his discussions

He has it on fb and his website.  

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