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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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192 Euro -- storm stalls, cut off from cold air also. Will be interesting to see surface maps, but this is a weird scenario.

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Wow, hour 192 is stunning. tucked into the coast, stalled out. 

Check temps, though. It warms considerably.

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Wow, there's some 20" totals across the northern upstate on the kuchera maps. 

Which model?

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

12z Euro. 24" at Spartanburg at 192. 

Actually it's a 20" snowstorm from greenville up to almost charlotte. 

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Total whiff for everyone north of Raleigh and GSO. Congrats, guys! You finally get your big one! Long overdue for so many. Glad to see you boys score! 

Dude, it's one run of one model. If this is what it shows 36 hrs before the event, then sure. Right now, I feel like there's a greater chance of a cold rain for central NC than anything else.

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Classic mid-south winter storm on the Euro, as stated heaviest totals focused in NE GA, upstate and SW NC.  Raleigh is fringed and has mixing issues.  I’ll be honest, this is a good look for central VA 7 days out on the Euro.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

Dude, it's one run of one model. If this is what it shows 36 hrs before the event, then sure. Right now, I feel like there's a greater chance of a cold rain for central NC than anything else.

Yeah this is a downright weird run, and it's also an outlier. I love it for MBY, but chances of verification verbatim are downright nil. 

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Yeah, it’s a little early for “congrats” or “woe is me.” Suppression is pretty much a good sign for most of this sub forum. Relax and enjoy the ride this week. At the very least, some of us might see the first flakes of the season, and if we’re lucky some might see much more. 

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8 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Dude, it's one run of one model. If this is what it shows 36 hrs before the event, then sure. Right now, I feel like there's a greater chance of a cold rain for central NC than anything else.

Statement of the winter for sure

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What about the stj and subsequent tapping of gulf moisture? The gulf looks to be wide open on this one. I would think the northern shield would end up looking much better come verification time, even if it were suppressed city. 

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Okay.....I’m not one to often get too worked up over model runs, especially at this lead time, but that Euro run with its 30 inch+ maxima right over my house in NE GA is making it a little hard to breathe right now lol

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Gfs euro and FV3 gfs all show a major to almost historic storm for some part of carolinas although it’s 7 days out and will change this is one of strongest signals I’ve ever seen from so far out. Impressive


.

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19 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Classic mid-south winter storm on the Euro, as stated heaviest totals focused in NE GA, upstate and SW NC.  Raleigh is fringed and has mixing issues.  I’ll be honest, this is a good look for central VA 7 days out on the Euro.

Yeah the whole " you never wanna be in the bullseye 7 days out yada yada yada"....those MA folks probably thinking they have this one right where they want it in the 7-8 day range......the FV-3 track is money until the low gets captured and tugged back into the sounds.........

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Here in Winston-Salem, I’d settle for any measurable snow this early in December. Fun week of tracking for sure, already explained to fiancé what I mean by model watching. :thumbsup:

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16 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I might save this one.Day 8 Euro.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120212_192_480_215.png

Umm give me 1/3 of the 30+ total IMBY and it will still be a storm I tell my grandkids about! 

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EPS Mean coming in shifted south like the Op, and colder.  Sfc low runs from Brownsville to south of Louisiana and over to off Jacksonville with strong damming high to the north moving in tandem. Wave looks better (more consolidated and clean - less strung out).  Blocking trough over the NE looks good.  This is a killer setup overall on the EPS, no doubt about it.

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