WeatherNC Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Still 48hrs out, but starting to look at Spruce Pine vs Sparta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Thru 48, DPs are lower across east, but HP is a little weaker. Upper levels are similar (tempwise). Probably not anything important. Nam just slightly further north with the LP at 51 but that doesnt mean anything imo this early in the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Still 48hrs out, but starting to look at Spruce Pine vs Sparta. I'd go with spruce pine. Better infrastructure to power back or get out. There ain't nothing out around Sparta lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Still 48hrs out, but starting to look at Spruce Pine vs Sparta. I'd go with spruce pine. Better infrastructure to power back or get out. There ain't nothing out around Sparta lol. Sparta is beautiful mountainous country 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Still 48hrs out, but starting to look at Spruce Pine vs Sparta. In-laws live on a ridge at 3500 ft above Spruce Pine. A location you might consider is Little Switzerland. It's right at the top of the Blue Ridge escarpment and they tend to do well there with the upslope. SnoJoe in the mtn thread may have some advice too...lives in that county NAM out to 60. The wave running thru the Great Lakes wasn't as strong this run, so the heights jogged north in the NE, but our wave is a little south, so may not make much diff. Precip shield thru the Ark/La/Tex is a touch north though 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Spruce Pine will do very well with the flow. Little Switzerland too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Yeah, it's a good 2-3 F warmer in most places. Without that high building in strongly beforehand, this will turn into a rainstorm. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Out to 75 on the NAM, and there's another shortwave that dropped into the NE 50/50 low and there's more confluence now than the last run, so it looks like it will stay fairly suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Go to West Jefferson. It’s awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Out to 75 on the NAM, and there's another shortwave that dropped into the NE 50/50 low and there's more confluence now than the last run, so it looks like it will stay fairly suppressed Yep it does, its warmer prior to the storm moving in though..And slow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Out to 75 on the NAM, and there's another shortwave that dropped into the NE 50/50 low and there's more confluence now than the last run, so it looks like it will stay fairly suppressed is this 12K NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 out to 81 and the snow line looks nearly indentical to the 18z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 LOL — I see the Oz NAM is confirming the beanskip curse is still in effect. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At 81 on the NAM, there's snow at Mac's and Burrel's crib in the W upstate. Out to 84, heavy frz rain back to Atlanta and over to Columbia 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Oh you guys freaking out about the NAM... lol 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It then rapidly builds the cold air in as the storm approaches. I'll take that. I'll also echo Wow's sentiments about the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Good lord, the worst GEFS member for chapel hill was 8”. 8(!) out of 20 were a foot and a half or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At 84 WNC is getting pounded with heavy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map? We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either. Rates will easily overcome current conditions. (Crystal clear tonight in the triad. Cold already!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Oh you guys freaking out about the NAM... lol Only WidreMann!.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Boy does it drop temps and DPs at the leading edge. Sounding for Durham has wet-bulb temps in the mid-upper 20s all the way up, and SFC down to 31. Precip looks like it's still evaporating, so there's more cooling to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The 850s cool as the precip/lift moves in from the SW. All the models have been showing this. The atmosphere is literally cooling from the top down. Its impressive. I don't know that I've ever seen this modeled before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Alright who's going to get dry-slotted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 wow, good look here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: It then rapidly builds the cold air in as the storm approaches. I'll take that. I'll also echo Wow's sentiments about the NAM. The wonders of low dewpoints as precip builds in. God bless CAD. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lja244135 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 One thing to keep in mind regarding CAD is that the global models very often tend to underestimate how much cold air is in place. There have been many times that snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain has been expected during a CAD event and we end up getting twice as much as the models had shown. I'm definitely not saying we'll all be getting 4 feet of snow out of this storm, but it's worth keeping in mind that the cold air may be more firmly in place than we all currently think. Once we get closer I'm curious to see how the NAM handles it, that model tends to handle CAD events better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Alright who's going to get dry-slotted?No doubt! Looks suspect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM builds in a 1040mb banana high over the OH valley to the NE. You can't ask for anything better. It's like an old 384hr GFS fantasy storm coming true. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Dry slot is not on the north or northeast side of the storm, so nobody. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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