PivotPoint Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 CMC is a straight shellacking. Please and thank you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 CMC clean phased the sw dropping down out of the midwest. Phase happens right over TN/AR. Stronger more consolidated system = what we want. GFS does not do this and the end result is not what we want. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Posted it in the wrong thread so I have a chance to correct myself. FV3 is a hit... can't tell how nice yet. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why... it would stop the posting of "it is getting squashed"... to only have the same person 3 post later saying... "well maybe not"... or someone saying "this is going to be bad" but if they actually know what they are looking at, would know better. Because: 1. Model discussion should be inclusive this far out from the event, not exclusive 2. It WAS still squashed on the GFS 3. Who cares if the 12z CMC comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Because: 1. Model discussion should be inclusive this far out from the event, not exclusive 2. It WAS still squashed on the GFS 3. Who cares if the 12z CMC comes to fruition you are free to post elsewhere if you don't like how the mods/admin handle storms. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 out to hr 36. Of course its on coffee break so we have to wait to see where its heading. Lunch hour at 96, just as we get to the interesting part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Came back north a good amount after its dip south at 00z The thing is the ggem didn't ACTUALLY go south at 0z. Just the op did. But it was an extreme outlier. One op run at 120 hours isn't that significant if it's not supported. But we don't bother with the geps because the cmc sucks and it updates around the same time the euro comes out so... but look at last nights ggem ens compared to 12z yesterday. It trended north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 gets the .50 line knocking on the door to the south. Still a whiff for northern MD. Can't quite tell with DCA but 1-3" range seems good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: I didn't know that Medicare had a weather computer model. CMS loves IBM. IBM has Deep Thunder. So.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, mappy said: you are free to post elsewhere if you don't like how the mods/admin handle storms. Lol, thanks Mappy I appreciate your input 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Posted it in the wrong thread so I have a chance to correct myself. FV3 is a hit... can't tell how nice yet. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Looked better on the precip depiction thing that they have on the ncep site... either way its progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, Interstate said: I didn't know that Medicare had a weather computer model. Me neither but if it shows snow for my backyard sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Amazing when you look at the 500 maps from the GFS and CMC. The LP and HP positioning is almost identical at 78. The GFS actually has a little bit stronger vort. But the CMC has slightly weaker confluence over the top. Very small changes will make all of the difference for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 gets the .50 line knocking on the door to the south. Still a whiff for northern MD. Can't quite tell with DCA but 1-3" range seems good. I gotta stop using TT for the FV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 pushing the 1" qpf line to EZF is very encouraging... The rabbit hole is open for business again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Lol, thanks Mappy I appreciate your input you're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: Amazing when you look at the 500 maps from the GFS and CMC. The LP and HP positioning is almost identical at 78. The GFS actually has a little bit stronger vort. But the CMC has slightly weaker confluence over the top. Very small changes will make all of the difference for our area. Compare the trailing vort and it's easy to see why the CMC is flush and gfs slides. These panels are right before the CMC phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 pushing the 1" qpf line to EZF is very encouraging... The rabbit hole is open for business again. This has the feeling for the EZF area of rooting for a North trend and then it goes too far North and we worry about mixing issues. I like where we all sit right now. 1" really close on FV-3 and CMC is a big hit around Fredericksburg..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Compare the trailing vort and it's easy to see why the CMC is flush and gfs slides. These panels are right before the CMC phases. 0z GFS was really close last night. The last 2 runs- not enough interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: 0z GFS was really close last night. The last 2 runs- not enough interaction. The OP no, the GEFS were much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Compare the trailing vort and it's easy to see why the CMC is flush and gfs slides. These panels are right before the CMC phases. So, Bob, the canuck has the NS trailing vortex over NE KS and the Uncle Sam has it in SW Minn? Is that how to read this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 pushing the 1" qpf line to EZF is very encouraging... The rabbit hole is open for business again. how is this storm still 100 hours away lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: how is this storm still 100 hours away lol? It used to be that models trolled us by simply losing d5 storms into thin air...or to Boston. Now they just keep the same storm continually at 120hr...like a carrot on a stick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: So, Bob, the canuck has the NS trailing vortex over NE KS and the Uncle Sam has it in SW Minn? Is that how to read this? Pretty much. I looked at the 12z FV3 on ncep and it's a partial/sloppy phase but still very close. CMC is the perfect progression but my confidence level in the CMC being the only model showing this is zero. Frustrating storm in the way you can see an easy path to victory but no consensus on the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty much. I looked at the 12z FV3 on ncep and it's a partial/sloppy phase but still very close. CMC is the perfect progression but my confidence level in the CMC being the only model showing this is zero. Frustrating storm in the way you can see an easy path to victory but no consensus on the idea. TY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We still have 9 more runs to go before we're even at 48 hours. And at 48 hours if we're in a good spot you know everyone will be on pins and needles praying there aren't any shifts in the last 8 runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 UKMET is out to sea and it doesn't look close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: This has the feeling for the EZF area of rooting for a North trend and then it goes too far North and we worry about mixing issues. I like where we all sit right now. 1" really close on FV-3 and CMC is a big hit around Fredericksburg..... yes..feel the same for PWC...EZF can jackpot and I will get something...good enough for now. If you mix I worry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Are you keeping it locked @stormtracker till the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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