BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good job night crew. Off to bed so I can get up for 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good job night crew. Off to bed so I can get up for 6z. That's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Eps snow fall mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 06z NAM: NE jog, high pressure 2mb drop..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Eps snow fall mean lol Just started glancing over the EPS and what I have seen so far I have liked. Some good trends, now if we can at least hold and not take 2 steps back on the 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just started glancing over the EPS and what I have seen so far I have liked. Some good trends, now if we can at least hold and not take 2 steps back on the 12z.Yes. We need consecutive good runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 One good sign is the panic in the NC forum 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 06z GFS: confluence relaxing...precip fields diminish western OK, Kansas as upper level axis pivots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Icon moved waaaaaay north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like a step back again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 At this point it is all about 500mb amplification, where is the 500mb guy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We cant make any progress. Worst run of past 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: We cant make any progress. Worst run of past 2 days Of the icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: We cant make any progress. Worst run of past 2 days Just small steps backwards. Weaker low and the confluence held on a little longer. Both these things the GFS can have problems with. Has a tendency to over play the NS on occasion as well as doesn't handle the SS as well as the Euro. Stronger low and more relax/ quicker release of the confluence to the NE and this moves north 50-100 miles. 1 of these changes might be enough actually. eta: oops, have another post in the wings didn't mean to add all those maps to this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Luckily fv3 looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Overall, good axis trend, max precip band pointing NE now in Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ji, I guess five days out I will glance at the EPS members and not be upset over the 6z OP gfs. Moreso given where you live than where I do which has been fringed or nothing for days mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Fv3 brings 1 inch line to Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 38 minutes ago, Ji said: Fv3 brings 1 inch line to You're never going to make it to Sunday...be careful before you break your fibula 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: Icon moved waaaaaay north Navgem way north 6z....good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Bittersweet feelings this morning, although i do lean more sweet with the EPS's positive trends north. Lots of members close to the coast, I don't see how eastern MD doesnt get at least some snowfall as the models will continue to overdo confluence at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Bittersweet feelings this morning, although i do lean more sweet with the EPS's positive trends north. Lots of members close to the coast, I don't see how eastern MD doesnt get at least some snowfall as the models will continue to overdo confluence at this range. Boy that should scream for a nice 12z run today you would think but look what the gfs did at 6z...feels like to me we may be seeing the northern and southern side of the storm envelope with the real bullseye to be figured out now. Of course anything coming from me is just anacdotel and not analytical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Boy that should scream for a nice 12z run today you would think but look what the gfs did at 6z...feels like to me we may be seeing the northern and southern side of the storm envelope with the real bullseye to be figured out now. Of course anything coming from me is just anacdotel and not analytical I dunno....there is still quiet the lead time for this. If we were at 72 hours I would agree with the envelope. Seeing the changes aloft even with the 6z gfs makes me think we arent even close still to hammering this down and surprises are coming. We haven't even been in range to get Nammed yet so yeah, there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dunno....there is still quiet the lead time for this. If we were at 72 hours I would agree with the envelope. Seeing the changes aloft even with the 6z gfs makes me think we arent even close still to hammering this down and surprises are coming. We haven't even been in range to get Nammed yet so yeah, there's that. I think the only reason I say it is because there are still shifts back South after the north runs. Sure history says there is still more room to move north but man there have been way more consistent south runs vs north ones. I'd like to see 12z show some north consistency today. I'd gladly be wrong for a little more north movement....as I look South from my deck I have room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z GEFS went from 6” @ DCA to 2.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ok, 75 pages for a threat not even here. No official STORM MODE yet but lets start focusing posts on weather and not useless chit chat and posts that add ZERO content. mgmt 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I have mentioned for awhile now that I favor that this will ultimately end up being a Miller A/B hybrid. Primary running up to or into Tennessee before transferring to the east and then running up the coast somewhat before it stalls/retrogrades as the 500's catch up. At this point I am leaning towards the low being located somewhere off the coast of central VA towards the mouth of the bay (somewhat north of current guidance). So I thought I would show you what that scenario might mean for the DC/Balt crew as well as why I believe I am seeing signs that the EPS is moving towards that solution. Below I have the individual members of the EPS. I have circled the members where we see the primary running into Northern Alabama/Mississippi/Tennessee. Though we do have some clunkers in there we do have some decent if not good to great looks for the DC north crew. Also notice that many/most of our northern solutions are within this group. ***Note: There are quite a few other members that now somewhat have the looks of a transfer. Now one other thing to consider. Look at how many of the circled members get copious amounts of moisture into the region. A little colder solution on many of these members turns that so/so snow or good snow above into a great hit for the corridor. Now you may be wondering what I am seeing to lead me to believe that the EPS is trending towards a hybrid Miller A/B solution. Below we have the mean low from two days ago. Now lets compare to the most recent run. Now we have seen a slow and continuous trend by the EPS over the last 2 days to give us what we have now. Notice the difference we are seeing with the lows mean structure. We are now seeing a distinct kidney shape with lower pressures hooking up the west side of the Apps and lower pressures hooking into the SE. This is the look I expect to see when we are dealing with a low transfer. One other thing to note that I will discuss in a bit is notice the location of where we are seeing individual L's showing on the map and how they have increased from the run 2 days ago. I really think the key here for our chances is to have a strong enough low as it moving out of the west so that we see some latitude gain as it is running through Louisiana and Mississippi. Now whether we see this actually move far enough north to see that run into Northern Alabama/Miss Tennessee for my thoughts on the Miller A/B transfer is irrelevant because any latitude gain is a plus for our chances. At this time I do believe the EPS is trending towards a stronger low/latitude gain solution. Note the individual maps above again. We are seeing more members that are showing distinct lows vs. the earlier run and these members also are favoring the northern edge of the mean envelope. We are also seeing a adjustment northward of the mean low. What all that tells me is that chances are increasing that in fact the solution running through the south will probably favor a more northerly track then currently projected. Now not only does the EPS hint at this but I also believe the GFS is leaving the door open for an adjustment north. Mentioned a couple times yesterday with the GFS that I thought there was room for the low to come further north and yet we did not see that. Possibly the low was just too weak? I have also seen this opening for the low moving further north on some other model runs as well but again we did not see it. One final comment. Know some of us been hammering on the 500's and how they will interact with this low when it is off the coast. My thoughts in that regards to if we actually see the Miller A/B? Think that sets us up well for when the low actually off the coast. Primary running up towards Tenn helps our timing (delays the evolution a touch giving more time for the confluence in the NE to relax hopefully giving us a more northern solution with the coastal) and also primes the 500's for when it goes for the attempted capture off the coast. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 43 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Bittersweet feelings this morning, although i do lean more sweet with the EPS's positive trends north. Lots of members close to the coast, I don't see how eastern MD doesnt get at least some snowfall as the models will continue to overdo confluence at this range. There is a bit of a double edged sword for eastern areas with this event. If the confluence hangs stronger the maximum impact(snow) will be south and southwest of DC. If there is more interaction with the trailing NS shortwave dropping in, the trough could slow/deepen and bring the low up and closer to the coast. More precip further east and north in that scenario, but eastern areas would also see some warming in the mid levels due to the high sliding off and the low not too far to the SE. Would be walking the rain/snow line. Be interesting to see how things progress, but for our yards we could get kinda screwed either way lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Period of interest for this storm on the Euro keeps extending further into next week. Initially we were thinking Saturday/Sunday, then it was Sunday/Monday, now it has precipitation hanging around our area til 3pm Monday. Just another indication that many of details are not worked out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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