Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If you wanna possibly punt December this would be a pontential way to do it. possibly- potential nah... in all seriousness, too early for that. One up shot ... the pattern is fast in translation. That intrinsically means it can also change quickly at multiple scales, not just turning over events. It's just really hard to visualize that happening when in abuse, but it can .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It is... and frankly I can't see any way that corrects otherwise. The surface pressure pattern is entirely escaped seaward leaving no resistance and as I outlined earlier, any low-level cold is fetid and putrid. I mean ...it's possible to still have a smidge of resistance from cold but there's not even that there. We may as well shoot that 70F and see if we can t-boner an ILL style twister outbreak. Agree. Always hated this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: I will sleep better this weekend knowing they're getting a lot of snow in Boone. Middle of "whocaresville"...not even big mid atl cities get whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Middle of "whocaresville"...not even big mid atl cities get whackedm NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NB Its the most irrelevent east coast storm ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I don't know if it's schadenfreude speaking or an overwhelming sense of justice seeking to point out a bad pattern... but I'd laugh if they white-rained down there. All the 'whaaaa' 's? oh man, would be priceless.. Well, anyway... one thing about this, the models did really well overall in depicting the pancaked solution. I think even the GFS was one of the first... I recall the Euro and the GGEM tried to back a tad on a run or two but the GFS (I could be wrong; don't get panties knotted; just the way I remember) has been solidly unwavering for three or four days of cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 >0 H85 is more common than you think. And it often comes with below zilch at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't know if it's schadenfreude speaking or an overwhelming sense of justice seeking to point out a bad pattern... but I'd laugh if they white-rained down there. All the 'whaaaa' 's? oh man, would be priceless.. Well, anyway... one thing about this, the models did really well overall in depicting the pancaked solution. I think even the GFS was one of the first... I recall the Euro and the GGEM tried to back a tad on a run or two but the GFS (I could be wrong; don't get panties knotted; just the way I remember) has been solidly unwavering for three or four days of cycles. GGEM was awful...showed a few hits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GGEM was awful...showed a few hits here. yeah ... of three, that one was worst in this overall ordeal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think we're done until the final week of the year....at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we're done until the final week of the year....at least. 18 forward looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: 18 forward looks good Too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Good call on the whiff, Steve, but my no mid atl storm/sne whiff during weak modoki rule is still in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Too quick. That’s what she said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GGEM was awful...showed a few hits here. James is still tracking a SREF member that is indicative of a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ensembles say 12/25 ish. Before that we need luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 At least the moonshiners in Appalachia will have a chance at a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: At least the moonshiners in Appalachia will have a chance at a white Christmas. It’ll be gone and forgotten by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: So we can lock n load the damaging regionwide screamer next Saturday? If it locks in, if it drifts west or east , different outcomes for the Mastiff. ULL location key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: At least the moonshiners in Appalachia will have a chance at a white Christmas. Roanoke, VA will exceed their annual snowfall total of 18" in this one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good call on the whiff, Steve, but my no mid atl storm/sne whiff during weak modoki rule is still in effect. Some are still waiting for the Arctic SW to be sampled ignoring the Mass of weight the TPV sent down, 10 days of modeling with practically zero difference in 5 H. Easy call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we're done until the final week of the year....at least. Ray, do you buy the progression on the weeklies ? Or, do you feel they are too quick with the good look that they show at the end of Dec. ( starting the 24 th to 26 th ) and in Jan ? Also, when the pattern changes to a more favorable for the East , do you expect it to lock in, or still be variable ? Aren't we still waiting on the El Nino coupling to take effect. Looking back at some winters, to a degree similiar to this one, the good pattern did lock in for about a 30 to 45 day period. I know your seasonal by memory, so I know your winter forecast, but just wondering any thoughts about the evolution you see versus the weeklies. I know for fact you were never in the camp for a stellar super cold and snowy December. Oh, and there seems to be a considerable amount of long term agreement about week 5 , even though that is ages away. The GEFS, Euro weeklies and CFSv2 seem to show the same pattern. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ensembles say 12/25 ish. Before that we need luck. Before that marginally wintery? Zonal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Before that marginally wintery? Zonal? Might be stormy at times. It’s the type where you could see interior snow if something like that later EPS has. But for all those spanking it to judah, wave flux bullshit, frictional torque....whatever makes you comfy in your footy pajamas with a pacifier sucking in and out like Maggie Simpson and ignoring everything in front of you.....taste the collective ass of the MJO. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might be stormy at times. It’s the type where you could see interior snow if something like that later EPS has. But for all those spanking it to judah, wave flux bullshit, frictional torque....whatever makes you comfy in your footy pajamas with a pacifier sucking in and out like Maggie Simpson and ignoring everything in front of you.....taste the collective ass of the MJO. well said.....Judah will back track in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might be stormy at times. It’s the type where you could see interior snow if something like that later EPS has. But for all those spanking it to judah, wave flux bullshit, frictional torque....whatever makes you comfy in your footy pajamas with a pacifier sucking in and out like Maggie Simpson and ignoring everything in front of you.....taste the collective ass of the MJO. LOL....tell us how you really feel. But I agree with the point overall. This will not be a short-lived mildup in the 3-6 day range. It's going to last a solid 10+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL....tell us how you really feel. But I agree with the point overall. This will not be a short-lived mildup in the 3-6 day range. It's going to last a solid 10+ days. It’s the culmination of arguing with the cold weenies. Hopefully we can dig out of this sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL....tell us how you really feel. But I agree with the point overall. This will not be a short-lived mildup in the 3-6 day range. It's going to last a solid 10+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s the culmination of arguing with the cold weenies. Hopefully we can dig out of this sooner rather than later. Yeah, the MJO looks like it is going to calm down a bit late in the period...so hopefully we can try and reshuffle right around or just before Xmas. Sometimes the reshuffle is a good time to sneak an event in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be stormy at times. It’s the type where you could see interior snow if something like that later EPS has. But for all those spanking it to judah, wave flux bullshit, frictional torque....whatever makes you comfy in your footy pajamas with a pacifier sucking in and out like Maggie Simpson and ignoring everything in front of you.....taste the collective ass of the MJO. You have half the brain of others and this post shows it. All you do is model hug. Nothing more, nothing less. That’s how you have the time to post as much as you do. Sad to see. The truth is all those things you spouted off you don’t know anything about. Ignorance is bliss I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now