moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A complete yawn from GYX. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major weather systems of note for the extended forecast. 16* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tick tick.. hear the footsteps the 00z Euro ensembles offer a wider distribution of possible outcomes with 12 of the 50 members (~25%) having a big hit for southern New England with at least 1 inch of qpf. That`s an uptick from 9 - 12z members. So given the time range here and the complex interaction between streams all 3 different outcomes remain in play which include 1) out to sea, 2) a glancing blow to 3) a direct hit I’ll take a glancing blow there are people w out shelter so how could I want a snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: A complete yawn from GYX. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major weather systems of note for the extended forecast. 16* Glad we don’t live in GC, but in SC instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll take a glancing blow there are people w out shelter so how could I want a snow storm I know, it’s crazy. There are homeless people all around the world and yet we want snows, how selfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Glad we don’t live in GC, but in SC instead. If this were to manage a glance, Litchfield county could smoke cirrus as well. Wake me up if it moves toward James. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: If this were to manage a glance, Litchfield county could smoke cirrus as well. Wake me up if it moves toward James. Night night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Around a 20% chance of >3 snow on EPS for SNE. NC is 98%. Does this turn up the coast in time? Euro nudged west a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Around a 20% chance of >3 snow on EPS for SNE. NC is 98%. Does this turn up the coast in time? Euro nudged west a tad. So far the models are really showing a kick rather than a phase. They've been consistent with this in general with the biggest difference being the latitude where the kick takes place. The GEM which had been on the phase train has backed off on that--at least as to when it will take place and progressively trended south toward toward a (closer) miss than much of the guidance. I'm eager to see if we can some better inkling of movement at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hi, I'm mainly in the NYC metro forum, but I'd like some input from some of you here, on this snow coming in this afternoon for Coastal NJ. I've mainly joined just for the learning aspect of things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: So far the models are really showing a kick rather than a phase. They've been consistent with this in general with the biggest difference being the latitude where the kick takes place. The GEM which had been on the phase train has backed off on that--at least as to when it will take place and progressively trended south toward toward a (closer) miss than much of the guidance. I'm eager to see if we can some better inkling of movement at 12z. Is this still a Sun-mon event if it makes its way, or Mon-Tue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS cluster was heartening in my opinion, based on the map in the MA forum. Nice sized group tucked in north of the op. A lot of spread east, but hardly surprising at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Hi, I'm mainly in the NYC metro forum, but I'd like some input from some of you here, on this snow coming in this afternoon for Coastal NJ. I've mainly joined just for the learning aspect of things. It looks like that area south of Tom’s River and especially near ACY could get possibly a few inches. It’s tough to tell exactly since it may stay offshore, but conditions favorable for good snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Hi, I'm mainly in the NYC metro forum, but I'd like some input from some of you here, on this snow coming in this afternoon for Coastal NJ. I've mainly joined just for the learning aspect of things. Inverted trough "NORLUN" https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Euro seasonal FTW, patience grasshoppers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We’re so wrapped up innext week’s possible storm that we’re kind of losing the forest for the trees. It’s wintry now....nice winter type chill overnight and today. 19 when I went out with the doggie 2 hours ago. Up to 21 now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Shocking developments. Yawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: A complete yawn from GYX. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major weather systems of note for the extended forecast. 16* No surprise. Some folks are citing Jan. 2016, and the GYX area got bupkis from that one. GSP has a better chance for snow than we do from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re so wrapped up innext week’s possible storm that we’re kind of losing the forest for the trees. It’s wintry now....nice winter type chill overnight and today. 19 when I went out with the doggie 2 hours ago. Up to 21 now. We winter, 9/5°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re so wrapped up innext week’s possible storm that we’re kind of losing the forest for the trees. It’s wintry now....nice winter type chill overnight and today. 19 when I went out with the doggie 2 hours ago. Up to 21 now. Agreed. Far less people appreciate winter than do simply snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, tamarack said: No surprise. Some folks are citing Jan. 2016, and the GYX area got bupkis from that one. GSP has a better chance for snow than we do from this one. At least get this next one up into SNE, Some on here may sever their weenie if RIC gets 18"+ before some see snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: At least get this next one up into SNE, Some on here may sever their weenie if RIC gets 18"+ before some see snow here. We Bobbit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Still 132-144 hours out. Its not in a bad spot right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: We winter, 9/5°F Congrats on the single digits. Bottomed at 14* here. Cold enough for some ice to begin forming. I'm looking forward to the ice-flows going up and down the river. Already you can make out where very thin ones are currently flowing upriver with the tide. Soon enough the thicker ones will take hold. It's always fun to watch a CG icebreaker head upstream to clear out the ice jams upriver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats on the single digits. Bottomed at 14* here. Cold enough for some ice to begin forming. I'm looking forward to the ice-flows going up and down the river. Already you can make out where very thin ones are currently flowing upriver with the tide. Soon enough the thicker ones will take hold. It's always fun to watch a CG icebreaker head upstream to clear out the ice jams upriver. Sounds like life is full of excitement up there at Pit2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sounds like life is full of excitement up there at Pit2. LMAO. It's just like Pit1 with water instead of hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We Bobbit? Northern stream needs consolidation work, To many moving ill timed pieces right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still 132-144 hours out. Its not in a bad spot right now. Zero chance on this one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Dummy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z GFS/GEFS was a small step back but the 0z Euro/EPS was a big step forward. I’ll take it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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