weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Thanks Jay! Agree with that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd take a big chunk off of the RGEM snowmap for much of the area. Reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most folks wouldn’t 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Thanks Jay! Agree with that map. It appears Jerry does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Anyone able to post RGEM snow map? Tyia. Phone posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most folks wouldn’t Depends on which vendor snowmap you're referring too. A TT map showing 11 including sleet near us is garbage. Without looking at soundings TT looked warmer at 700 vs 850 on the regional maps. We could conceivably get a few inches and than pound sleet. Maybe enough lift to offset could get us 4-6. Would hesitate going much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I remember as a kid a Boston snowstorm on Nov 15th. I kept daily weather records when I lived in Wayland Mass just west of Boston. Went back and look. Nov 15 1967 According to my records ( I was 11 years old) we had 7" of snow and temps falling from 32 in the AM to 26 in the evening. Also said there was blowing and drifting in the PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Anyone able to post RGEM snow map? Tyia. Phone posting. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Anyone able to post RGEM snow map? Tyia. Phone posting. Obviously would not take this verbatim, but RGEM has trended colder and supports heavy thump through most of SNE before changeover after 5z-6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I think 1-3 for most all of inland CT on Harvey's map is a lil low at this point(of course it could be right), especially when Ryan has quite a bit more for our area at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Depends on which vendor snowmap you're referring too. A TT map showing 11 including sleet near us is garbage. Without looking at soundings TT looked warmer at 700 vs 850 on the regional maps. We could conceivably get a few inches and than pound sleet. Maybe enough lift to offset could get us 4-6. Would hesitate going much higher. I gave an analysis of the NAM's FRH grid a page or so ago (12z ..) and that description right that is just about precisely what it argues from roughly ASH to N. CT. to the Berks with more snow west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I would caution with the RGEM, It has dropped quite a few stink loafs over the last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 RGEM jackpots here won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 My personal feelings on this is that the 'correction vector' is pointed colder profiled. How long that vector is (meaning...how much correction) may not be huge... but, it's pointed colder. Boy I'll tell ya... if that high were any more belated in departure, that vector would get huge in a hurry. Usually for warm expectations, cutting a 500 mb v-max under the S Coast with nascent boundary layer polar air in place ...doesn't end too well for the warm expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 RGEM can be a bit juicy at times. It's another reason to be cautious in addition to the marginal soundings. Still, you'd rather see it thumping heavy precip than not. We're going to want big omega to maximize snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Not that Kevin needs validation, but based on guidance right now (weighing 0z Euro + 12z 12k/3kNAM + 12z RGEM): I wouldn't be surprised if watches show up for parts of interior SNE... Maybe we are trigger shy with this season opener, but last night's Euro would support it It's all about 800-750mb temps in the 0z-6z timeframe and intensity of initial WAA thump. if everything caves towards GFS this afternoon, then no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I love when Tip speaks of his vectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, wxsniss said: Not that Kevin needs validation, but based on guidance right now (weighing 0z Euro + 12z 12k/3kNAM + 12z RGEM): I wouldn't be surprised if watches go up for much of interior SNE... Maybe we are trigger shy with this season opener, but last night's Euro would support it It's all about 800-750mb temps in the 0z-6z timeframe and intensity of initial WAA thump. if everything caves towards GFS this afternoon, then no This is probably going to be a season that manufactures plowable out of a quail queef. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Thanks for the RGEM maps guys. Thumper en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Obviously would not take this verbatim, but RGEM has trended colder and supports heavy thump through most of SNE before changeover after 5z-6z Not on my comp right now, but how does that compare to the RGEM meteocenter maps of liquid equiv as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Depends on which vendor snowmap you're referring too. A TT map showing 11 including sleet near us is garbage. Without looking at soundings TT looked warmer at 700 vs 850 on the regional maps. We could conceivably get a few inches and than pound sleet. Maybe enough lift to offset could get us 4-6. Would hesitate going much higher. I think 4 or 5” is max for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love when Tip speaks of his vectors ... I have to 'cuz they're so small otherwise - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z GFS definitely better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The Amherst MA area should get a good thumping, because the replacement part for my snowblower won't be here until late Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 We thump. We slot. We drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not on my comp right now, but how does that compare to the RGEM meteocenter maps of liquid equiv as snow? It's actually pretty accurate this time. The rgem def shows a lot of snow but the soundings are marginal. It's just blasting SNE with a WCB fire hose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: RGEM jackpots here won't happen Right LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 yup, the backside of this thing is actually not too terribly cold... so, it may bounce mild and drippy ... Classic cold advection offsetting during solar nadir time of year out there. We set stage... Many Davis' are parked at 32 with brilliant albeit sloped oblique sun. The advection terms can control the diurnal temperature variation now through about mid or end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms, but it shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 actually 'mild' might be too strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 nice Novie gem here... We're not going to get a cut-and-dry event (that often... ) in November. It's good to get this and gin up the analytics engine for what I feel is going to be an abnormally active winter. We're gonna need it. But, we run risk of over thinking the models - or thinking we can. Sometimes hunches and intuition and experience team up and score personal/collective coups...sometimes, nah so much. The NAM FOUS QPF is over an inch at Logan and as I outlined the linear mean of the temperature, at respective levels, between there and ALB, most of that falls frozen/freezing prior to any tale ending mist. That should be warning ... if for no other reason... shear PR and public prep being at a premium at this time of year. So I dunno... but this is sure fun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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