weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AK black hole shows up nicely on the EPS. It’s coming eventually. More of a piglet vs pig and as a consolation still trying for an NAO and also still rotting in the d13+ range. Also, ensembles of all stripes trying for a poleward ridge west of it. In the end it sure isn’t dampening sensible wx all the way out but I get the implication.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just because it’s on the EPS means little especially considering how poorly eps has performed. Look how bad it was for Nov. late in Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 fascinating forecast up here. I have zones showing mostly rain but up to 2" of snow. Yet we are under a winter storm watch because the profiles are so close, and higher elevations in this county could get heavy snow. Razor's edge. A town not 10 miles wnw of me has 4-8+ in their zones and they are not that much higher. I'm going to NYC this am so it will be interesting to monitor via my security cam. Also, this weekend looks like a rainer? wtf with any NAO help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AK black hole shows up nicely on the EPS. It’s coming eventually. are we talking after first week in December timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, 512high said: are we talking after first week in December timeframe? Presuming it happens sensible wx effect 12/10 or beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Presuming it happens sensible wx effect 12/10 or beyond. thank you, seems like a long ways off, being spoiled with the past two events..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 How far west is this stupid thing gonna track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I think you guys are putting lipstick on a pig. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 This would be after the first week so hopefully we can sneak something in between now and then. I’m not saying 2012 is walking through that door, but it certainly doesn’t look pretty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This would be after the first week so hopefully we can sneak something in between now and then. I’m not saying 2012 is walking through that door, but it certainly doesn’t look pretty to me. we buy more lipstick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Yeah this is easily the worst run of the EPS yet. That's ugly stuff beyond D13. Hopefully it is a little different looking as it gets closer. Theres a chance for an event or two though in the Dec 4-7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is easily the worst run of the EPS yet. That's ugly stuff beyond D13. Hopefully it is a little different looking as it gets closer. Theres a chance for an event or two though in the Dec 4-7 range. What’s it look like? I don’t have access to EPS :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: When do Blizzard warnings go up for the Interior Maine Coast, geezus @OceanStWx Too bad it's going to be paste rather than powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This would be after the first week so hopefully we can sneak something in between now and then. I’m not saying 2012 is walking through that door, but it certainly doesn’t look pretty to me. 60 and pina coladas for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 So are NNE peeps not worthy enough to get our own thread for tomorrow's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: So are NNE peeps not worthy enough to get our own thread for tomorrow's event? You can start one. You don't need permission. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 60 and pina coladas for Xmas Another Christmas of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: So are NNE peeps not worthy enough to get our own thread for tomorrow's event? No one has taken initiative, you guys need to do and be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Problem is, gefs show the AK vortex too. This is a big blow, we’re gonna need to collectively fight our way out of it....all hands on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: So are NNE peeps not worthy enough to get our own thread for tomorrow's event? You guys just don’t like starting threads , SNE isn’t starting one for your snow storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is easily the worst run of the EPS yet. That's ugly stuff beyond D13. Hopefully it is a little different looking as it gets closer. Theres a chance for an event or two though in the Dec 4-7 range. It’s been beyond d13 since Thanksgiving Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Why not ? fire it up ... There may be some sort of left-over hesitation due to a kind of 'unspoken' sensitivity where NNE is a different region, but you just gotta think of the whole region as one identity. So you start a thread - title it something like, "northern regions' snow storm" ...and probably, the southerns won't post a whole helluva lot - that's just the way it goes. This isn't an analytic hobby - oh there's some of that from time to time but by and large, this pass-time is a support group. Ha. true though ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s been beyond d13 since Thanksgiving Day. A river in Egypt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Not a storm thread, but here's the December discussion thread. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51756-december-discussion/ The AEMATT crowd doesn't care about a few moose and skiers getting some paste tonight/tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: A river in Egypt Perhaps but worth considering. We’re not going wall to wall epicosity but how bad and for how long? I know when a bad pattern has some hope in the longer range dreams are frequently dashed or at least tempered. So keeping reasonable expectations without jumping off the roof seems to be the best plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Perhaps but worth considering. We’re not going wall to wall epicosity but how bad and for how long? I know when a bad pattern has some hope in the longer range dreams are frequently dashed or at least tempered. So keeping reasonable expectations without jumping off the roof seems to be the best plan. Yes and I joke last few days is like having rumors of your main girl leaving you for the guy with the foot long...and the back and forth of her denial and things looking good yesterday to this am you see her um...in his passenger seat..reaching for change. It’s not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is easily the worst run of the EPS yet. That's ugly stuff beyond D13. Hopefully it is a little different looking as it gets closer. Theres a chance for an event or two though in the Dec 4-7 range. Got to be honest... the American side of that is not looking good for winter enthusiasts... In fact, .... bad may be apropos. Not sure, though, if this isn't just some artifact of a 'lost signal' more so than a legitimate one? What I mean is, in the absence of coherent physical presence/pattern drive in these guidance tools, they sort of flat line and tend to zonal ... which tends to precede ridging as a beta function result. .... Hyperbole ... but, before December deliberately attacks Holiday dough eyed innocence with metaphysical forces because said forces derive pleasure from watching people's misery ... the EPO (American) is still sagging a bit negative. That's a bit quixotic in my mind (adds variability that could offset). As an index, particularly in nominal warm ENSO, anything of Pacific origin might intuitively bias +PNA ... These indexes sometimes have to 'emerge' in time in that regard, not showing candycane looks like we'd rather be drugged with.. In the meantime ...the D9 /10 operational Euro has a deep syrup dump over the western/central Canadian shield with ... I think I saw -32 C at 850? yikes... It's quasi agreeing with the GEFs -EPO in having a ridge axis poking up NW of the Alaskan sector, and that does precede said loading. So at least before D13 ...that looks doesn't really extrapolate and might just be a stability clue when including the underlying hemispheric canvas of parameters - dicey... So...taken fwiw, there may be conflicting signals there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes and I joke last few days is like having rumors of your main girl leaving you for the guy with the foot long...and the back and forth of her denial and things looking good yesterday to this am you see her um...in his passenger seat..reaching for change. It happening . Just grow a foot long yourself and you wouldn’t have to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Not sure why anyone is surprised....winter blew its load too early and now we're paying the price. It really is that simple, things have to even out. Maybe we'll get a reset middle of January most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No one has taken initiative, you guys need to do and be better. This is the moment the NNE folks can stake their ground here. They need to overcome the fear of tyrannical SNE rule and make the thread. If they can overcome this fear, this moment will be remembered by NNE weenies decades from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now