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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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At 96, SW move now underway, but much closer to shore and 20-30 mb weaker. Touching coast at Little River/Calabash at 96.

Stalling closer to shore weakened the storm significantly this run, but probably means SE NC paid the price in storm surge if this verified. 

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5 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

GGEM takes it slowly inland over eastern NC. It was the last outlier. It's still kind of an outlier in its northerliness, but not by as much.

UKMet has now moved south.  At hr72 it is in Wilmington area.  At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point.  Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)

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Just now, griteater said:

UKMet has now moved south.  At hr72 it is in Wilmington area.  At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point.  Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)

This convergence makes it clear that the solution is probably correct. Lots of egg-on-face for folks in the Triangle who were pumping up the Fran 2.0 angle when the storm was still 4-6 days away and the models were showing a lot of uncertainty.

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range....

A storm that strong even the little wobbles in Onslow bay will make a difference inland. Yikes.

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15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Don't think this run will take it as far to the SW still spinning on same spot off Jacksonville NC at 78.

Well I was wrong it went even further SW into Georgia..Has to be an all time anomalous track if it happens. 

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Just now, Jet Stream Rider said:

A storm that strong even the little wobbles in Onslow bay will make a difference inland. Yikes.

Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck. 

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck. 

I hear you. It increases the uncertainty. If it does happen like this though, many inland folk will be fortunate to not have that monster eye wall get any closer. Wow. BTW - Irene and Isabel, both left trees on this house.

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21 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Man the GFS turns near S.C./GA line and heads to WNC. Wrings the moisture out. 

GFS takes Florence as far NW is Eastrern KY at hour 156 then turns back SW thru Western NC at hour 168 to about the midpoint of the SC/GA line at hour 180 with the remnants about to emerge back into the Atlantic off the Southern coast of SC at hour 186. Edit: Actually turns SW again and emerges off the Florida panhandle into the GOM at hour 204.

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1 minute ago, JoshM said:

Euro does a off shore tour of the Carolinas and makes landfall in Georgia! :facepalm:

ecmwf_T850_seus_6.png

then heads to atlanta. pretty wild to say the least. Who would have guessed georgia as a possible ultimate landfall a few days ago. Worried about widespread power outages and tree damage again in georgia as there  Could be some funneling effect between the circulation center and the mountains similar to irma (helped by high pressure over new england too)  with this type of track.  Unlike irma though, the circulation will be much stronger as it crosses georgia. I lost 5 oaks because of irma.

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5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

then heads to atlanta. pretty wild to say the least. Who would have guessed georgia as a possible ultimate landfall a few days ago. Worried about widespread power outages and tree damage again in georgia as there  Could be some funneling effect between the circulation center and the mountains similar to irma (helped by high pressure over new england too)  with this type of track.  Unlike irma though, the circulation will be much stronger as it crosses georgia. I lost 5 oaks because of irma.

Brisk day for you Monday, well this run, of course.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091200_135_508_379.png.9e28db7cae98f33a61853b4a999b7203.png

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17 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Brisk day for you Monday, well this run, of course.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091200_135_508_379.png.9e28db7cae98f33a61853b4a999b7203.png

yeah not good...the euro takes the core of whats left of  the strongest winds right across here.   Irma was such a unique case that it's hard to believe that we could  do  it again just one year later. Unfortunately a lot of people lost power for days on end and that was just a tropical depression/weak tropical storm by the time it got to the al/ga border. hopefully it will only be a minimal hurricane at landfall and it wont' be as bad. 

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With this new cone, assuming it follows the mean line, what kind of wind can we expect in Wake county? Sustained and gusts please!  Thanks!

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Good luck to all you guys. As forecast now it looks like coastal areas are going to take a real beating. New Jersey is still rebuilding beaches six years after Sandy.

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8 hours ago, downeastnc said:

This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW  and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models.....

Given the new updates do you still feel that this is a possibility?  Obviously feels have nothing to do with weather forecasting but something just doesn’t feel right about all of this. 

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