Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 There will be some major damage for interior sections with that run. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 In terms of the inland track and rainfall, Euro is a noteworthy jog north from its previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Stall just west of the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, jburns said: SC Gov has ordered the evacuation of the entire SC Coast beginning tomorrow. That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: In terms of the inland track and rainfall, Euro is a noteworthy jog north from its previous run Starting to catch on to the ukie, fv3,hmon tracks you think? No matter which track it looks like NCs gonna have what's likely to be its worst natural disaster ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, jburns said: SC Gov has ordered the evacuation of the entire SC Coast beginning Wed.. It's effective tomorrow at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I'm not too worried about the effects for KECG.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 you would expect to see the NHC track at 5pm to not move or shift a tad bit north....I would also expect the inland plots to come east a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: It's effective tomorrow at noon. Yeah. I had tomorrow at first. When I went to double check the info I pulled up0 an old link. Sorry about that. COLUMBIA — Gov. Henry McMaster will order evacuations along South Carolina’s entire 187-mile coastline border starting at noon Tuesday, saying residents and tourists must get out of Hurricane Florence’s potentially devastating path, according to several lawmakers briefed on the plans. The evacuations are expected to cover some areas inland prone to flooding, including Berkeley County and parts of Dorchester County. The eastbound lanes of Interstate 26 heading into Charleston and U.S. 501 into Myrtle Beach will be reversed when the order takes effect, opening all lanes to evacuees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe Yes! In my opinion it's not necessary for Charleston, or at least make it effective Wednesday instead. Lots of people are home from work already and now it's a scramble to figure out how not to get trapped on the wrong side of the block tomorrow if we need to go in at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe Maybe for the extreme southern coast, but say a shift of 50-100 miles in a southward direction of the projected Euro track were to occur with only hours to spare...that would bring a large portion of SC into some pretty rough stuff, especially Charleston north and east... Way better to play it safe imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: you would expect to see the NHC track at 5pm to not move or shift a tad bit north....I would also expect the inland plots to come east a bit.... That's what I'm expecting. (assuming you meant "now" instead of "not") Hoping the Triangle ends up west of the eyewall in future runs but know that puts you more in the worst zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said: Yes! In my opinion it's not necessary for Charleston, or at least make it effective Wednesday instead. Lots of people are home from work already and now it's a scramble to figure out how not to get trapped on the wrong side of the block tomorrow if we need to go to work or not. Not only that, but it puts pressure on roads, hotels etc that people from the NC landfall zone will need. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 That is just west enough that is probably the worst case scenario for Raleigh east, maybe even Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 My nephew is at coastal Carolina and wanted to ride it out. He is likely on his way to my house for the storm. Which may not be the smartest since we are also in the path just much further inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Eye looks ragged, the storm size is about to explode after its EWRC... Still moving due west atm based off both the IR and visual aids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pressure down to 940.8 for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I don’t wish Florence on anyone and hope all avoid the worst, but selfishly IMBY, I’m pleased with the Euro trend. Half a foot of rain is bad enough, but I don’t want any part of two feet coupled with tropical storm force winds. We all love weather and the wonders it brings, but it’s not worth having a couple of huge oak trees on the house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, NyCwEaThErFeEn said: Nobody wants this unless you’re a retard! We have no shortage of those on AmericanWX. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Durmite Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, magpiemaniac said: We have no shortage of those on AmericanWX. Heyyyy.... I resemble that remark!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Good AFD to save: Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 3940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 000 FXUS62 KRAH 101856 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front will waver over the Piedmont of NC through Tue. Meanwhile, Hurricane Florence will track west northwest across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Wed, then approach the Southeast U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1105 AM Monday... Main adjustment to the near term forecast was to add the mention of locally heavy/excessive rainfall for location primarily west of highway 1. 12Z upper air analysis and meso analysis depict an abundantly moist atmosphere over central NC with precipitable water values 1.8-2.0 inches. The flow from just above the sfc through 300MB fairly unidirectional from the SW. A mid level trough/shear axis was noted extending from the southern Appalachians to a vort max exiting the eastern Great Lakes. This feature projected to edge slowly east and weaken with time. Meanwhile, a sfc boundary was analyzed west-to-east in vicinity of the the SC border. This feature projected to lift slowly nwd later this afternoon. Convergence along this weak sfc feature coupled with the proximity of the mid level shear axis will initiate/sustain scattered convection this afternoon through this evening. Expect the greatest coverage generally west of highway 1. Due to the deep SW flow, training of showers/storms appears likely. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in low lying areas as well as urbanized locations. Due to the presence of the low level boundary, and the mid level support, scattered convection may persist through midnight, with convection gradually diminishing into the overnight. Extensive low clouds across the Piedmont impeding temperature recovery at this time. If low clouds persist through 17Z, will likely need to adjust max temps down a category, especially along and west of I-85. Expect a repeat performance of the low clouds and patchy fog overnight, mainly across the Piedmont and the northern Coastal Plain. Min temps in the upper 60s-lower 70s. && SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM Monday... An upr level low/shear axis will weaken over cntl NC on Tue. Meanwhile in the lwr levels, a surface front will linger and retreat nwwd across the nwrn NC Piedmont and Foothills, and the sea breeze will drift inland. These features will again focus mainly scattered showers and storms, maximized with diurnal heating, Tue afternoon. Low clouds and areas of fog over the nrn and wrn NC Piedmont are likely to disperse more rapidly than previous days, with resultant temperatures more uniformly in the mid-upr 80s throughout cntl NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 PM Monday... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Florence has strengthened to a category 4 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. There remains significant spread in the model solutions, making it difficult and too early to tell where the most significant impacts within the state will occur. With the National Hurricane Center anticipating a Thursday landfall the average track error this far out is between 100-150 nautical miles, and so there are many details yet to be ironed out. There is however increasing confidence that North Carolina will suffer significant impacts from Hurricane Florence and preparations should be completed as soon as possible. For residents of central NC, sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force will be possible. This will likely cause a significant number of power outages and downed trees across the area. The greatest risk to residents of central NC will be with inland flooding. As the storm makes landfall it is expected to slow down, thus increasing the time Florence remains over the state. This will enhance the flooding threat and those who already know they live in a flood prone area need to take appropriate action to make sure they have a safe place to go during the storm. Now is the time to have a plan in place and ready to go and to have your hurricane kits fully stocked. Residents need to be prepared for potentially long periods of time without power or water. Stay tuned to the forecast and to messaging coming from NC Emergency Management for the latest information. You can visit the NWS Raleigh Tropical page at http://www.weather.gov/rah/tropical for information from the National Hurricane Center as well as local statements and forecasts. -Ellis SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: This stage of the forecast remains very uncertain, as all of the forecast is reliant on the eventual track, intensity, and survivability of Florence once it makes landfall. In general, models tend to be in agreement with a rapidly decaying yet nearly stationary tropical system overhead by the weekend. This slow progression will likely keep gusty winds and heavy tropical downpours active across much of central NC, with potentially several inches of additional precipitation possible each day. Pinpointing the areas likely to be hardest hit remains very difficult due to the wide array of model spread that still exists, so please continue to monitor for future developments in the forecast. - JJM && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... Lingering low stratus over portions of the Piedmont, with IFR/low end MVFR ceilings, will lift into a scattered broken cu field by 21z with bases 3500-5000ft. Scattered convection will develop over portions of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont through 21Z. The threat for scattered convection will increase across the remainder of central NC after 21Z, persisting until 02Z. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings, and wind gusts 25-30kts. After 06Z, areas of low stratus and fog will redevelop across the northern half of central NC, leading to IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. The adverse aviation conditions will likely linger through most of Tuesday morning. Comparable conditions expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Thursday, the extremely adverse affects of Hurricane Florence may begin to impact the eastern sections of central NC by Thursday morning, and the entire region by late Thursday, persisting into Friday. Aviation conditions are expected to slowly improve expected by Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Ellis/JJM AVIATION...WSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 36 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Eye looks ragged, the storm size is about to explode after its EWRC... Still moving due west atm based off both the IR and visual aids Ragged? And no eyewall replacement cycle. It just developed a proper eyewall recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: So that's not a ton different, but you have to say it is caving to the others a little. A couple more cycles like today, and SC should be completely out of the woods. I would think so too, the NE trend with canes is like the NW trend with winter systems, not quite a guarantee but pretty close. With 3 days still to go and a strengthening system I still would think a scrape to OTS is still in the cards, or even a delmarva hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just curious if anyone took a look at the FV3 out to the end of the run. 3 separate landfalls after 2 separate regeneration events....heh...let's not do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 @wcnc 4m4 minutes ago HURRICANE FLORENCE: Flushing phase of lane reversal will begin at 8 a.m. tomorrow in Columbia as SCDOT prepares to reverse lanes of I-26 between Columbia and Charleston. They will flush from Columbia to the I-526 interchange in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 EPS, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Solak said: @wcnc 4m4 minutes ago HURRICANE FLORENCE: Flushing phase of lane reversal will begin at 8 a.m. tomorrow in Columbia as SCDOT prepares to reverse lanes of I-26 between Columbia and Charleston. They will flush from Columbia to the I-526 interchange in Charleston. Huge mess coming tomorrow. Nobody's employers were contacted ahead of time so it's a mad scramble everywhere to figure out exactly where things are being closed and whether people need to come in to work. My wife is supposed to come in according to her manager (works at a doctor's office), but it's unclear whether she would actually be able to get home or not! Details may be coming at the Charleston County press conference at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: EPS, FWIW: Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too. Edit: That was yesterday's run. Spread does look more reasonable today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too. Yeah, though the mean is pretty dang close to the Op with a similar shift north from 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: EPS, FWIW: that is yesterday's run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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