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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

How many Septembers in a row well above normal now?

4? 5?

I’m negating cool start last year as Mother Nature negated it and then some.

Scary times ahead for fall lovers 

An above normal is perfect weather. Usually low 80s late into September. That’s  amazing 

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50 minutes ago, psv88 said:

An above normal is perfect weather. Usually low 80s late into September. That’s  amazing 

Sure but I have a feeling we'll be seeing 70+ dews well into September and that's awful. Dry, warm weather is great but this humid stuff has been atrocious.

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15 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah we're gonna have a 4 day heat wave (MON through THUR) and then much cooler and wet for Friday and next weekend. The question is does the heat come back for the following week?

Not sold on wet if it’s s backdoirvfront... Models showed wet for this weekend too...

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sold on wet if it’s s backdoirvfront... Models showed wet for this weekend too...

I agree---earlier this week the forecast was for cool and rain----I'm now sitting outside getting tan and sweating

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Had been full sun and blue sky on the beach all morning up until about 30 mins ago. Now some broken clouds filtering the sun a bit. Still a nice day. From satellite the rest of the region looked mostly cloudy and the beach is unusually quite for day like this.  

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33 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

2015 didn't get there?

The dew points were too low for a 100 degree or higher heat index.

NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2015

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK   SUNNY     96  61  31 VRB3      30.00F HX  96           
LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY   93  61  34 SW5       29.97F HX  93           
KENNEDY INTL   MOSUNNY   89  70  53 S14       30.01S HX  94           
NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY   97  61  30 SW8       29.97F HX  97           
TETERBORO APRT MOSUNNY   95  60  31 SW15      29.95F HX  95           
BNX BOT. GARD.   N/A     93  64  38 CALM      30.00S HX  95    

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3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It brings Florence to the east coast in about 10 days

The EURO caught the disease from the CMC which is very similar.   The GFS is faster and farther east.   But unless the CMC has been rejiggered, doesn't it have a bad track record with hurricanes?    At any rate, we should expect some disturbance to be located between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras within 10 days with three globals showing something.

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14 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The EURO caught the disease from the CMC which is very similar.   The GFS is faster and farther east.   But unless the CMC has been rejiggered, doesn't it have a bad track record with hurricanes?    At any rate we should expect some disturbance to be located between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras within 10 days with three globals showing something.

IMO, the potential Florence threat bears watching. There's a possibility that ridging could develop to its north, which could lead to its tracking toward or to the U.S. East Coast. Of course, much can change over the course of the next 9-10 days.

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12 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The EURO caught the disease from the CMC which is very similar.   The GFS is faster and farther east.   But unless the CMC has been rejiggered, doesn't it have a bad track record with hurricanes?    At any rate we should expect some disturbance to be located between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras within 10 days with three globals showing something.

The gfs just came alot further west and south with a big ridge in the Atlantic.

Bears watching

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The dew points were too low for a 100 degree or higher heat index.

NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2015

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK   SUNNY     96  61  31 VRB3      30.00F HX  96           
LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY   93  61  34 SW5       29.97F HX  93           
KENNEDY INTL   MOSUNNY   89  70  53 S14       30.01S HX  94           
NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY   97  61  30 SW8       29.97F HX  97           
TETERBORO APRT MOSUNNY   95  60  31 SW15      29.95F HX  95           
BNX BOT. GARD.   N/A     93  64  38 CALM      30.00S HX  95    

Ah, thanks for the data.

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But the EURO-ENSMEAN, HMON, HWRF all have Florence dying in childhood, ie. at about 5 days old.  LOL      NAVGEM does have the storm living and healthy a week out, however.

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Classic pattern for an East Coast landfall. Rare to see such good agreement between the OP and EPS mean 10 days out. The WAR could even be stronger than the models are showing as has been the case much of this year at 10 days out.

Models initially showed it heading OTS due to a strong central Atlantic trough but if that's not a factor then I don't see how this wouldn't be an east coast threat. 

The only thing that would stop this is an unfavorable environment (shear, dry air, etc). 

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September decade averages for NYC...ave. temp...ave rainfall...ave max...ave min...minimums are on the rise...the 2010's have the high maximums also...

Decade...ave temp...rainfall...ave max...ave min...

1870's......65.3......3.41"............................

1880's......66.2......4.18"......86.5......46.1

1890's......67.7......3.38"......89.6......47.0

1900's......68.1......3.84"......86.8......48.4

1910's......66.8......3.09"......89.5......45.6

1920's......67.8......3.54"......91.1......47.2

1930's......68.7......5.15"......90.0......47.9

1940's......68.8......3.70"......91.2......45.5

1950's......68.3......2.36"......89.9......45.6

1960's......67.7......3.85"......90.2......47.2

1970's......68.3......4.73"......90.1......47.1

1980's......68.6......3.58"......90.3......47.5

1990's......68.0......4.18"......88.7......47.6

2000's......68.6......4.91"......86.5......49.7

2010's......70.5......3.71"......92.5......52.6

1870-

2009........67.8......3.85"......89.2......47.1

1980-

2009........68.4......4.22"......88.5......48.3

Warmest..........Coolest..........Wettest............Driest...

74.5 in 2015...60.8 in 1871...16.85" in 1882...0.21" in 1884

73.6 in 1961...61.8 in 1887...11.96" in 1934...0.29" in 1914

73.3 in 1881...62.6 in 1883...11.51" in 2004...0.41" in 1885

73.3 in 2005...62.8 in 1888...10.30" in 1944...0.48" in 2005

72.3 in 1931...63.1 in 1963...10.09" in 1933...0.51" in 1941

72.3 in 1959...63.3 in 1893.....9.39" in 2011...0.60" in 1948

72.2 in 1891...63.3 in 1879.....9.32" in 1975...0.62" in 1895

72.1 in 1921...63.6 in 1917.....9.02" in 1938...0.70" in 1951

72.0 in 1930...63.7 in 1876.....8.82" in 1966...0.97" in 1881

71.8 in 1884...63.9 in 1918.....8.81" in 1999...1.10" in 1953

71.8 in 2016

Hottest temp......Coolest temp...

102 9/02/1953....39 9/30/1912

101 9/07/1881....40 9/30/1888

..99 9/03/1929....40 9/25/1887

..99 9/11/1931....40 9/24/1963

..99 9/11/1983....40 9/21/1871

Warmest monthly minimum...

57 in 1910

56 in 1921

56 in 2015

54 in 2002

54 in 1982

54 in 1960

54 in 1891

54 in 2010

54 in 2016

54 in 2017

Coldest monthly max...

79 in 1883

80 in 1888

80 in 2003

81 in 1908

81 in 1918

81 in 1975

Warmest daily minimum...

79 9/07/1881

79 9/02/1898

78 9/03/1898

78 9/04/1898

78 9/11/1983

78 9/02/2010

Coolest daily max...

52 9/30/1888

52 9/24/1887

53 9/19/1875

53 9/24/1950

53 9/25/1879

53 9/28/1984

53 9/29/1888

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13 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Had about 2 hours of filtered sun and the rest of the day was full sun at the beach.  Beautiful. We may sit here till sunset.  

...same thing out east..day was sun filled, the water was warm, clean & green, nice breeze out of the S..all in all 

a top 10 beach day..whats noticeable now is the lowering sun angle..even at high noon the reflection

of the sun on the water is quite noticeable.

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