Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Definitely disjointed at H5. Eh..still not as bad as EuroEuro had zero storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Snow map. Caveat - a lot of the MD snow is from intermittent snow beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Definitely disjointed at H5. Eh..still not as bad as Euro Euro had zero storm lol Thus, not as bad as the Euro. Am I typing in English? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Snow map. Caveat - a lot of the MD snow is from intermittent snow beforehand. Perfect. Look at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 CMC is basically a whiff. Pretty stark differences with the strength of the southern SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It has some light snow with the 500 pass as well. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm. No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm. No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us. Yeah, might be time to start tempering expectations with this one. It was looking promising when we had the Euro/GFS both showing a decent storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm. No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us. Not disagreeing, but that was the first Euro run to whiff, no? Could be blip... hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, might be time to start tempering expectations with this one. It was looking promising when we had the Euro/GFS both showing a decent storm yesterday. Yeah, if the Euro holds from the 0z run, might be time to consider that solution. If anything the GFS might be inching toward it. For now, wait and see mode. This is far from done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm. No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us. My concern is it's trending towards the other models at h5. Atleast with the northern stream interaction. If the southern stream is weaker it would look like the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It has some light snow with the 500 pass as well. Great run. That is a super location specific comment, that’s for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As of now, GFS is the only one with a storm. No need to panic at this point, obviously, but it's irritating that we only have one global with us. I agree tracker and the disjointed 500 seems to be a step in the wrong direction. Plenty of time for improvements but the past several runs have shown some significant changes at 500 all over the map. I don't think any of the models really have a handle on what might happen yet, probably another 24 hours of waiting before they start to come to some sort of decent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Gfs is trending towards euro. Ive never seen 1000 low in sw va with such paltry precip to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The southern wave gets way out in front of the northern stream digging in so everything is out of sync. The fact it still got that close is a good sign given out totally screwed up the h5 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: My concern is it's trending towards the other models at h5. Atleast with the northern stream interaction. If the southern stream is weaker it would look like the rest of the models. Correct. The move toward the other models are a little worrying. But alas, this is life in the Mid Atlantic. 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is trending towards euro. Ive never seen 1000 low in sw va with such paltry precip to the north Soldier, calm yourself. Let's see what the next 2 or 3 cycles do for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Trends this morning are not good for the MA. I don’t like the way things are evolving in the guidance. 500 looks disjointed, lacking a phase. Not much to bring this north with one SW racing out in front of the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The season theme of "just out of sync" will drive even the most patient a little nutz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Don't think the EURO is that wrong. Believe we see the EURO come a little north and the next GFS run move a little more south. Meet in the middle for a VA storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Trends this morning are not good for the MA. I don’t like the way things are evolving in the guidance. 500 looks disjointed, lacking a phase. Not much to bring this north with one SW racing out in front of the other. Yea it's troubling but I've seen the long range guidance struggle with this very thing in the past and sometimes end up with a more consolidated system come game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ggem races the stj wave so far ahead it's a completely different system. A weak stj wave sliding east under us then a weak clipper that was the support for the storm washing out a day behind it. Lol This setup won't work without phasing. The flow is too suppressive for a stj wave to bully north on its own. If it misses the boat with the trough digging it will probably stay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 In for Ji's meltdown, along with the housewives of Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ggem races the stj wave so far ahead it's a completely different system. A weak stj wave sliding east under us then a weak clipper that was the support for the storm washing out a day behind it. Lol This setup won't work without phasing. The flow is too suppressive for a stj wave to bully north on its own. If it misses the boat with the trough digging it will probably stay south. Again....why is the flow so progressive. What happened to nao creating traffic jams with systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The season theme of "just out of sync" will drive even the most patient a little nutz what's annoying is it appears we'd be cold enough to support snow. something upstairs has been too progressive it seems, possibly making it more difficult to get the timing we need. i'm interested in the euro. gfs didn't look terrible, "just out of sync", but we're in a timeframe where we can afford a day of not ideal solutions. would be nice for the euro to show a storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 56 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So, we're still talking about the ICON like it's a real model? No shade, just asking. 54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Where did it even come from, anyway? Lol It's a real model, but a relatively new one. It was created in 2015 and runs at roughly the same resolution as the GFS, but on an icosahedral grid. I haven't found much verification data on it, but from what I can tell it has been rapidly improving and is probably getting close to GGEM level. It did well on our last event. Perhaps because it's a relatively new model and still catching up to the other globals, it appears to be on a fairly rapid update cycle. Here's an example of some of the updates that were done in less than a year over 2016 and 2017. There are some good reasons to take it somewhat seriously. I believe it's the only non-hydrostatic major global model, which adds some variety to the ensemble of globals. From a more practical perspective, it runs four times a day, its output is free, and it calculates its own snow ratios. So even if it's not as good as a something like the UKMET, for many of us it's more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ukie doesn't look good for the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalBecs said: Why is there so much discrepancy among the posts? People don't know where Winchester is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it's troubling but I've seen the long range guidance struggle with this very thing in the past and sometimes end up with a more consolidated system come game time. We have seen this happen numerous times this winter though. It is still early in the game, but writing might be on the wall with this unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's too early for writing on the wall talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We have seen this happen numerous times this winter though. It is still early in the game, but writing might be on the wall with this unfortunately. I'm concerned. But to play devils advocate the pattern is very different. We've had no blocking at all until now so im not sure seasonal trends can be assumed to continue. But I'm not dismissing your legit concerns. gefs still looks good enough not to have a funeral yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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