ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hard not to like the GFS. Keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Better than 12z at H5...no where near the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I guess its the effects of the ULL? Cause its still light snow at 144 and 150 after the storm itself is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Horrible at the surface though! (For DC proper in particular) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I care. Is it a miss? It looked better on screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: I guess its the effects of the ULL? Cause its still light snow at 144 and 150 after the storm itself is gone Seems to. Looked interesting on the surface. Look as if the storm itself was elongating. Decent hit, we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 1004mb SLP just east of HSE at 129 1002mb SLP 150 miles or so out off of HSE at 132 Nobody seems to care lol. Then why bother posting to the forum anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 50 miles to the Northeast and we are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Kuchera is pretty decent too, especially for Western folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m happy with the 18z GFS. That would more than double my season snowfall to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I will take 3-6" of snow ANY DAY After this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’m happy with the 18z GFS. That would more than double my season snowfall to date. I’d also toss the surface temps this far out causing that pocket over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: I’m happy with the 18z GFS. That would more than double my season snowfall to date. Would near me to double digits. We just need it to hold course. We're also within 5 days now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: I’d also toss the surface temps this far out causing that pocket over us GFS does that with UHIs now, probably in a recent update, but I'm not sure how reliable it is. Probably would've scored a coup if it were around on the GFS during Snowquester lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Not again! #cursed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Would near me to double digits. We just need it to hold course. We're also within 5 days now! If you look at the evolution of tomorrow’s storm, I’d guess there’s going to be model inconsistencies beyond 72 hours...it just seems to be that kind of winter. The EPS is actually pretty good all things considered with the last two OP runs. At least it’ll be a fun few days of tracking something to close out winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I want to be really wrong but all the sleet and rain earlier did is mess up the dew points. No cold air is pressing in so if we can get an overnight snowfall to accumulate moderately at 35 degrees then I will have learned something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: GFS does that with UHIs now, probably in a recent update, but I'm not sure how reliable it is. Probably would've scored a coup if it were around on the GFS during Snowquester lol Yeah we have seen it all winter and more often than not it verifies warm. I’m just happy the storm is there and not worrying about the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Horrible at the surface though! (For DC proper in particular) probably gonna have to deal with that either way. mid march is tough here for a start to finish snow. i'm perfectly ok with a 3-6/4-8/6-12" event. i'm not even convinced that i want more than that going into spring. mounds of snow in parking lots is overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, supernovasky said: A hole on DC? This run will verify then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I mean there are 7" right over my back yard... if I could lock this in I would in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: I want to be really wrong but all the sleet and rain earlier did is mess up the dew points. No cold air is pressing in so if we can get an overnight snowfall to accumulate moderately at 35 degrees then I will have learned something Huh? Are you talking about this storm or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: probably gonna have to deal with that either way. mid march is tough here for a start to finish snow. i'm perfectly ok with a 3-6/4-8/6-12" event. i'm not even convinced that i want more than that going into spring. mounds of snow in parking lots is overrated. This is why we need a coastal bomb to overcome mid-March thermals....seems like it may be either phase or bust, but...who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Huh? Are you talking about this storm or tomorrow? He is talking about the tonight into tomorrow storm and posted in the wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The little bit of stream interaction produces the snow and the elongated system. Need more tho...long duration light snow in March isn't going to cut it imo. Hey, it was a slight improvement after the ops went off the rails on us....I'll take it but hope for continued improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: The little bit of stream interaction produces the snow and the elongated system. Need more tho...long duration light snow in March isn't going to cut it imo. Hey, it was a slight improvement after the ops went off the rails on us....I'll take it but hope for continued improvements. Seems like during the night the GFS cranks the rates somewhat SW of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems like during the night the GFS cranks the rates somewhat SW of DC You are right about rates...more impressive than I thought. But, that image is the 6hrs between 2pm and 8pm. Daytime snow mod/heavy could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'm going to add some perspective to this thread. Let's assume no model has shown a big hit for next week yet and we saw the euro/gfs/cmc today and this was our "first look" at potential. What would we say? I would say that the euro was close to something good and the gfs was a really good run. I'd also say that there's some upside depending on how juicy the approaching low is and how the streams interact. The euro had the potential but it was disjointed and messy. The 18z gfs was much closer to a clean phase and could have been much bigger. See where I'm coming from? We saw some monster op runs way out in fantasy land so perspective is different. Everyone is quick to jump on the "losing the storm" train and we're doomed. If we actually just started discussing this threat today we would be thinking differently. Fantasy ops really have little value other than showing that there's a chance of something happening. Pretty much the same with ensembles but ensembles add some probability to the equation. IMHO- we're no better or worse off than we were when this threat showed up. We're right on the cusp of lead times where we should see ops converge on a relatively similar solution. My guess is the euro brings the storm back to some degree but even if it doesn't, we still have plenty of time for things to adjust in our favor. I thought the 12z EPS looked pretty similar to all the previous runs with an even mixture of good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Then why bother posting to the forum anymore? Im just saying there was a 5 minute gap betwen posts after Yoda posted some surface details at 132 and 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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