Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol See that northern vort split and the piece drive NW? Not sure I have seen that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: See that northern vort split and the piece drive NW? Not sure I have seen that haha It's like planetary orbits in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. LolIm actually glad to see cmc show this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol Cmc would be a fitting end to the winter lol In all seriousness though gotta love the moisture bomb that the GFS shows. To me it looked like it had more room to come north with less confluence.Being south 5 days out historically works well for us with a strong LP. Let's hope some other models join in though. Cmc was a step in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 One of the best tools on tropicaltidbits is the "Previous Run" button. I'm linking the forecast for 0Z on March 12th from tonight's 0Z GFS run. If you click the "Previous Run" button back run after run, you'll have to hit three days ago (Saturday AM 6Z run) before you see any Operational GFS lose the significant eastern low altogether. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018030700&fh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is trippin. I'll quit this hobby if that's how it goes down. We get some snow so that's not why I'll quit. I'll quit becuase it doesn't work like that in real life. Lol Im actually glad to see cmc show this lol Oh, I'm not complaining. It has a storm and so does the gfs and icon. Last night's euro didn't have a storm. If we we're at 72 hours I'd be legit concerned about a slider. Models barely know know how many pieces of upper level energy there will be and margin for error with placement is prob a few hundred miles. To me, it looks like we have the Atlantic right. That's a big deal because it's mid March so ridging or any type of return flow with a high off the coast kills our temps instantly. The "downhill" look to the isobars in the atlantic leading in is what's locking in cold so we have to have that. All we need is a better phase/stronger low and it "should" punch into the confluence and get up here. I'm pretty optimistic honeslty. This one feels right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Hey... 00z UKIE has a storm this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I think we miss just east... but 00z UKIE at 120 has a 997mb SLP south of ILM -- 144 its 984mb SLP up by the 40/70 benchmark ETA: Going to have to wait for the QPF panels on weather.us which will be a lil while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I think we miss just east... but 00z UKIE at 120 has a 997mb SLP south of ILM -- 144 its 984mb SLP up by the 40/70 benchmark ETA: Going to have to wait for the QPF panels on weather.us which will be a lil while Great to hear. Time to get the Euro on board now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Great to hear. Time to get the Euro on board now. I don’t even need a 12” bomb this run. Just a move in the right direction would suffice plenty for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 0z UKMET For those who can’t see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 00z GEFS 24 hour accumulated QPF maps MUCH better... check out hours 126-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GEFS continues to support the op. Nice moisture bomb just to our south. Great look IMO for 120 hours out Edit. Ninjad by Yoda.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can't see the individual panels yet, but the dreaded purple line has reached DC on the snowfall mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Can't see the individual panels yet, but the dreaded purple line has reached DC on the snowfall mean. i guess dreaded is supposed to be sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, yoda said: i guess dreaded is supposed to be sarcasm? Yes. My bad. No sarcasm when we are in storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Here is a little before and after with the 0z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Oh hell Yea man. Plenty of these are latitude gainers also. Best mid range gefs run all year. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Tasty Great thing is most of those are showing actual snowfall. Based on the precip type maps those aren't skewed high much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Tasty Is it possible to show only the 24 hour snowfall? I want to filter out today's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Back to the 00z UKIE for a moment: 108 -- 1002mb SLP in C AL 114 -- 999mb SLP west of the SC/GA line in E GA by about 50 miles 120 -- 995mb SLP just south of ILM 126 -- 988mb SLP just east of HSE 132 -- 982mb SLP east of NC/VA border by ~150 miles 138 -- 979mb SLP at ~38 degrees north and ~71 degrees west 144 -- 972mb SLP at 39 degrees north and 70 degrees west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Is it possible to show only the 24 hour snowfall? I want to filter out today's event not that I can see on WB... maybe on another site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: not that I can see on WB... maybe on another site? gotcha... thanks for looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Back to the 00z UKIE for a moment: 108 -- 1002mb SLP in C AL 114 -- 999mb SLP west of the SC/GA line in E GA by about 50 miles 120 -- 995mb SLP just south of ILM 126 -- 988mb SLP just east of HSE 132 -- 982mb SLP east of NC/VA border by ~150 miles 138 -- 979mb SLP at ~38 degrees north and ~71 degrees west 144 -- 972mb SLP at 39 degrees north and 70 degrees west Above are the approximate positions of SLP placement on the 00z UKIE. The h5 charts and precip are not out as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: That is yesterdays oops. deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z GEPS is a flush hit. That's last night's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 If anyone cares... 18z NAVGEM is a major hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: If anyone cares... 18z NAVGEM is a major hit Looks warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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