OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 We are definitely warming aloft overnight. But it’s not like a SWFE where temps keep climbing. These will eventually cut off late tonight and the mid level air mass becomes stale. So it’s all about that stale air mass that we have to overcome. All modeling is showing rapid cooling aloft around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 48F, looks like rain will be here soon. Wow, that's warm, I'm down to 39F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: That's definitely a flip to heavy snow for the east Still on track for right around 22-23z. it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just had a 32mph gust...winds are cranking already, wasn't expecting that until tomorrow morning at least... temp down to 43 Td @32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I wonder if how things tilt will play a significant role with regards to the warming. This is where I wish I was good at the calculus...and knew how to apply all those equations. It seems like a slight difference in how the system is tilted will make a big difference in the degree of warmth that works in...both at the sfc and llvl's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NAM looks like the Euro with the distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 00z NAM cools the 925mb layer after 18z tomorrow, also the 3km NAM model had three bursts of high end wind gusts potentially for Cape Cod and the Islands Friday through Saturday, all with potential mixing to 100mph or greater with the mesolows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, tavwtby said: Just had a 32mph gust...winds are cranking already, wasn't expecting that until tomorrow morning at least... temp down to 43 Td @32 I think inland gusts could exceed 50. This thing has many surprises .You rotate some of those meso lows inland and all hell breaks loose. It’s really impossible for anyone to feel confident in any aspect of this as it’s kind of uncharted water. By morning we should have an idea which way to lean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Nam shows the 925 0C line collapsing from W MA and W NH to the Cape elbow between 21z and 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 00z 3KM NAM is even stronger with the 10m wind gusts, over 95mph over the Outer Cape from Hyannis eastward gusts could approach 100mph or higher as mesolows get involved. This is a very dangerous and life threatening wind threat for the Cape Cod through Cape Ann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Man that run blows for ern areas. Back to the quick exit idea too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z 3KM NAM is even stronger with the 10m wind gusts, over 95mph over the Outer Cape from Hyannis eastward gusts could approach 100mph or higher as mesolows get involved. This is a very dangerous and life threatening wind threat for the Cape Cod through Cape Ann hopefully your computer gets blown away and you lose your novels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NAM is a toaster for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: NAM is a toaster for many. Yeah definitely a hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I'm leaning light on snowfall for this location. Maybe a slushy inch or two, could even get shutout if everything breaks wrong. Maybe I'll be surprised with more but most models do not like north central Ct and the southern Pioneer Valley. Boundary layer is an inferno, and by the time the ML temps start crashing the best forcing/firehose shifts east and south and we kind of get jumped over here with some catpaws to finish. Hopefully I'm wrong but that's kind of the way I'm seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Yeah definitely a hair warmer. Well that too. I'm just talking about end result. Thing pivots and is done by sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3k NAM looks like it switches over 6pm-8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3km is a bit more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The NAM has really elongated lows at 925/850 which explains the big warmth that blows in before it really closes things off. Gotta watch that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 3km is a bit more bullish. But less so than its 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 That rapid growth of echoes in Delaware reminds me a little of Jan 12, 2011. Now that was a fun system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Logan11 said: I"m optimistic here, but the highest jack amounts probably 25 miles south of here. 37/28 now. Rick!! We’ve missed you! One of the irc originals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Sucks how putrid this airmass is. Anything resembling normal and we would be flipping and ripping fairly quickly . Might have to take a weenie drive NW tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wow, that's warm, I'm down to 39F here. I'm expecting rain here which is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 the pbp was confusing on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: the pbp was confusing on the nam It looks like a few hours of heavy snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Check out Pivotal weather s snow maps compared to TT what the hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: It looks like a few hours of heavy snow at the end Yea 10 inches in 6 hrs and the soundings concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Check out Pivotal weather s snow maps compared to TT what the hell Still sucks here regardless but yeah there's some major differences there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Check out Pivotal weather s snow maps compared to TT what the hell Yup. Algorithms FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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