Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Temp has really fallen last / hours down to 44 and dews coming down. Winds are really starting to crank NE I don’t expect to be snow until mid/ late afternoon, but I won’t be shocked if it mixed or flipped back and forth well before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Mid-level temperatures also rise a bit though. It's not like there's a lot of cold air up here. Heck here in N.VT we will likely be a little warmer than places getting crushed by precip. There's really no cold air to "drain down" on a north wind. Like BDL has a lower H85 temperature at 5am tomorrow than they do at 10am as that mid-level warmth rotates inland from the east for a time. Similar to what ORH/Will was talking about if the ORH Hills start as snow then go to rain before going back to snow. I bet we'll see some excited posts tomorrow morning if its snowing in some nearby hill locations like Litchfield County and northern ORH Hills as people think its closer than it should be, but there is a period of mid-level warmth that causes temps to rise into the middle of the day. There is certainly no cold air in place but for me it's very difficult to see any sort of temperature rise...sfc and aloft as the day progresses. I am (and perhaps too much) really thinking dynamic cooling really takes over and when we have intense lift over the region places will get snow...even if they're 34-35F at the sfc...now when intensity lessens they could flip to rain. But aloft...I don't see much warming during the day either b/c eventually this thing occludes and that cuts off the warmer air being wrapped into the system and once the occlusion happens warm air inflow is done...and by this point temps aloft will likely be marginal but if we still have great lift I would have to think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’d guess that idea doesn’t happen. My guess is if it’s snow in morning in x location.. they stay snow for duration under banding I'm not sure. It's not uncommon in these strong U-wind anomaly systems to have mid-level warmth advected in from the Atlantic. Even up here we go from -4C tonight at H85 to 0C or even +1C around midday tomorrow with the deep layer easterly flow. Good ol' memories of February 2010...luckily not much precip up here as I'd be pissed if it was dumping in the Catskills and raining up here, lol. There's a push of warmer air in there. Different story if it was turning to a more northerly flow then I'd agree, but its like deep layer ESE aloft. I think we see the snow retreat a bit west into the midday hours before it all starts to crash later in the day as the flow goes more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Ran the Genny, gassed up , got extra gas and cash just in case. No joke storm snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, weatherwiz said: There is certainly no cold air in place but for me it's very difficult to see any sort of temperature rise...sfc and aloft as the day progresses. I am (and perhaps too much) really thinking dynamic cooling really takes over and when we have intense lift over the region places will get snow...even if they're 34-35F at the sfc...now when intensity lessens they could flip to rain. But aloft...I don't see much warming during the day either b/c eventually this thing occludes and that cuts off the warmer air being wrapped into the system and once the occlusion happens warm air inflow is done...and by this point temps aloft will likely be marginal but if we still have great lift I would have to think snow. Good point, but even loop the EURO 850mb temps and you can see a mix of both ideas. H85 temps warm from 6-12z but then it occludes and holds steady from 12-18z before falling quickly after that. Loop a bunch of model 850mb temps and you'll see that sort of evolution. It's not a lot of warmth but an extra 1-2C at 850mb will make a huge difference. Very interesting forecast for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ran the Genny, gassed up , got extra gas and cash just in case. No joke storm snow or not. I think the winds underperform expectations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The NAM is a bit warmer through 12 hours than it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha true... not set in stone they do well in this one either out there. Hudson Valley is a big wildcard, like most of SNE. I would still rather be there for this with the primary moving thru and being away from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 42f @2k in tannersville lmao plz say my car thermometer is broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Good point, but even loop the EURO 850mb temps and you can see a mix of both ideas. H85 temps warm from 6-12z but then it occludes and holds steady from 12-18z before falling quickly after that. Loop a bunch of model 850mb temps and you'll see that sort of evolution. It's not a lot of warmth but an extra 1-2C at 850mb will make a huge difference. Very interesting forecast for sure! Totally agreed...that is why I think we could see rain to snow to rain type deal in places. The degree of upward vertical motion which seems to coincide when profiles are marginal enough for snow indicate snow when things are going wild. This could be really problematic b/c it would be extremely wet but accumulating very quickly. For some stupid reason Oct 2011 keeps coming in my mind with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Meanwhile off topic, but this -NAO is resulting in a crazy storm in Ireland tonight. Dublin looking at 18 inches with up to 3 feet possible. Wut? Damn, that is huge for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think the winds underperform expectations here. HM thinks they over perform. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The NAM is a bit warmer through 12 hours than it was at 18z. also looks like it has two separate low centers...which could be messing with temps...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NAM has cooled at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 could a Mod or Admin please combine the 2 obs threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Nam is interesting. It seems to have lowered the ceiling on 850mb temps but expanded the overall area over 0c. I'd argue this is a better look so far. Run not finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: NAM has cooled at 700mb. Hopefully it's onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 DAMN.... Winds on Outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 100 kt winds at 850 at 19z just off the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HM thinks they over perform. Interesting That's in the Mid Atlantic for the sting jet. I think we struggle around here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HM thinks they over perform. Interesting I know who I believe on this... Speaking of winds, definitely getting breezy in my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: DAMN.... Winds on Outer Cape. don't let James see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 For verification later on. Let's hope this over-performs, definitely going to be some weird snowfall distribution without a doubt either way! Send me your totals once it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Looks like ending CCB for E MA to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Also...storm cancel for me. I just bought gas for my snowblower and found shear pins... no snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: That's in the Mid Atlantic for the sting jet. I think we struggle around here in CT. I agree...the coast may get 50+ but inland maybe 40ish...nothing crazy. Haven''t seen much to think inland gets any higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 That's definitely a flip to heavy snow for the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 48F, looks like rain will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Can't see soundings but what a furnace aloft on the NAM compared to the morning runs. Doesn't flip ern areas until after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: DAMN.... Winds on Outer Cape. James will be the tail on Winnie the Pooh's kite. I considered going to the family house in Falmouth for this but Buzzards Bay won't be very exciting so I would end up having to drive 30 minutes to at least South Cape Beach in Mashpee to take it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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