Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Typhoon Tip

Sunday the 18th ... storm idea/early thoughts...

Recommended Posts

My biggest concern with this is that assimilation schemes appear to be guiding just about all the mechanics that the models are finally bringing over land in 48 hours over western Canada.  I suspect that this system could be a bit more proficiently designed when that happens.  Until then, we may contend with varied commitment both inside and outside respective model cycles - not atypical for shadowed systems. 

Presently, ..the impulse has yet to even be ejected out of the SPV over the N arc of the Pacific, and really won't until ~ 12 z -ish tomorrow.  After which, it rockets like a bat out of hell into the N/A sounding domain some 24 or so hours later.   

It's got a bit of a 'Bozart et al 'little critter' ness to it, where it may maximize one or two physical components in it's evolution through the flow in such a way that it over-produces (so to speak...).  This thing may hit the land-sea interface near the Jersey coast with a wall of DPVA and some interesting short duration cyclogen results should more come in off the Pacific ... and open wave potency slip underneath L.I.

Hey, it's all we got for the time being ... 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed Tip,

 

Mentioned in the model thread how this one def had the Lance Bozart "critter" look. We'll see if it sticks...these "Arctic screamers" are always a bit tough on model guidance. One day it's in about the worst data assimilation region possible, and then 24 hours later it's well into the data-rich southern Canada or even N CONUS. When they are moving that fast, it's a good recipe for large model changes inside of 3 days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early idea is for lower impact scenario. 

But, I like the trajectory of the wave mechanics through southern Alaska tomorrow as a possible 'goose' in the mechanical presence in the stream(s) ...and possibly seeing some morphology of this as a quick hitter/reminder of the time of year regardless of whether the Euro's magnificent ridge succeeds shortly thereafter or not.   Or, it may stay as is, but, this systems origin is not exactly dense in the grids. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting little storm. Nice northern stream disturbance (you can see the big dip/disturbance on the dynamic tropopause) works with that plume of southern stream moisture. There's only so much room to go north/south here as it's really the combination of the two that delivers the QPF bomb. 

us_f90 (1).png

us_f90.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan that southern panel is key !   nice...  I think if more gets relayed in, that gets pretty potent inside of a narrow corridor ...I mean obviously, just sayn' that I agree with the squeeze

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ryan that southern panel is key !   nice...  I think if more gets relayed in, that gets pretty potent inside of a narrow corridor ...I mean obviously, just sayn' that I agree with the squeeze

The two are really working in tandem. You've got that existing boundary and the northern stream disturbance amplifies and brings it north.

The two remain pretty much separate entities and then with the low static stability over the ocean + highermoisture content you get cyclogenesis and a nice precip shield. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed Tip,

 

Mentioned in the model thread how this one def had the Lance Bozart "critter" look. We'll see if it sticks...these "Arctic screamers" are always a bit tough on model guidance. One day it's in about the worst data assimilation region possible, and then 24 hours later it's well into the data-rich southern Canada or even N CONUS. When they are moving that fast, it's a good recipe for large model changes inside of 3 days.

I actually saw Lance's presentation on that back in the NE Storm C. ...circa 1997 I wanna say...  and recall specifically the case study. 

that was a nasty non-predicted DOT nightmare.  It struck roughly 11 am through 3pm and dumped 10+ inches of SE Mass, on west wind! ...I think we had 6" where I was in Acton...  But I remember another almost exactly like that in 2003 ... There was a snow showers and windex squalls in the 'cast and we ended up with a stationary meso band from hell over metro and metro west. I was working down on Comm Ava across from BU at the time and I remember < 1/4 vis for over two hours.  Man, that's what you live for!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The two are really working in tandem. You've got that existing boundary and the northern stream disturbance amplifies and brings it north.

The two remain pretty much separate entities and then with the low static stability over the ocean + highermoisture content you get cyclogenesis and a nice precip shield. 

yeah, I like the difluence look there too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually saw Lance's presentation on that back in the NE Storm C. ...circa 1997 I wanna say...  and recall specifically the case study. 

that was a nasty non-predicted DOT nightmare.  It struck roughly 11 am through 3pm and dumped 10+ inches of SE Mass, on west wind! ...I think we had 6" where I was in Acton...  But I remember another almost exactly like that in 2003 ... There was a snow showers and windex squalls in the 'cast and we ended up with a stationary meso band from hell over metro and metro west. I was working down on Comm Ava across from BU at the time and I remember < 1/4 vis for over two hours.  Man, that's what you live for!

Yes it was in 1997. 10” fluff bomb in Brockton. On west winds like you said. Came out of nowhere. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I like the potential timing. Starts in the evening Saturday.... out of here before people wake up Sunday.... 12 hour storm really

Yup and mostly a memory by the Monday morning commute

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If my memory serves me well, this system reminds me a little —in terms of evolution— of the January 17th snowstorm that hit the Carolinas. I think this was also a small omega bomb. Obviously this is much further north, and we don’t have the issue of the baroclinic zone being displaced SE of the BM; so this one isn’t destined for the Carolinas by any stretch...

Different early stages but explosive development when it tapped the UL vort digging southeast from Canada just off the east coast in a progressive flow environment. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

8-10” for the usual se zones, he forgot to mention that.

Looks pretty good for most south of the pike if the euro verified... sharp cutoff NW of Worcester though.... at least on that run.

Ill take what I can get. I’m working day shift both Sat and Sun... but this looks to happen right in between, and it won’t stick around so pile it up 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Saw Dr. Greg Postel on TWC late this morning, their winter weather expert, and he called for just 1-3 in the NE and really was downplaying the whole thing.

Who watches him or them? The guys not an expert on anything 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks pretty good for most south of the pike if the euro verified... sharp cutoff NW of Worcester though.... at least on that run.

Ill take what I can get. I’m working day shift both Sat and Sun... but this looks to happen right in between, and it won’t stick around so pile it up 

Bogus, oh well.  SE Mass winter per usual the past decade 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Keep it, if it isn't 4"+  here I would rather not deal with the annoyance.  That being said, I'm not sure this is done coming NW.

I'm not convinced it doesn't come NW either. Even as is, there's going to be some goodies to the northwest of the max QPF...snowgrowth looks quite good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

8-10” for the usual se zones, he forgot to mention that.

SE New England has places with a 15 year average  that is higher than places in the Berkshires.   Regimes change and eventually they change back, I guess.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not convinced it doesn't come NW either. Even as is, there's going to be some goodies to the northwest of the max QPF...snowgrowth looks quite good.

Yeah I made note of the posts that you and Ryan made about  some potential he good snow growth zones away from the QPF maxes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×