dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That was the first 12z run of the suite. I don't have any reason to discount it (yet). I've been leaning warmer for days with this for reasons I've previously described... Also given the convective nature of this event, I think the mesos will have more use here. The nam performed well with the previous event which was similar to this. In addition, the mesos - particularly the high res - are usually superior at picking up BL temps at this range. 12z 3km Nam has it tracking further SE and colder if that's the case, Actually, Its almost the same as 06z, Basically noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3km NAM much better up here than 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That's not very nice...it is a possible solution (although I doubt it happens) I would take being accused of day drinking as a compliment. The RT 2 corridor looking good. I anticipate Wednesday school being canceled by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'd typically want to see a very intense vortmax riding up through like ALB to get a sfc low track over ORH...otherwise, it will run into that low level airmass and then get squeezed over RI/SE MA....very hard to run a sfc low into the interior without very good dynamical forcing to the west. Mid-level low? Sure....but not surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 For those curious, this is as far north as the mix line gets on the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: It was a little more generous this run, It gives me 4" while 2 miles north its 9" lol Climo karma? GYX 90/50/10% product has Farmington at 6/10/13". Would be nice. (Of course, I remember last Feb 14 when at this distance the numbers were 8/17/21" and they verified at 5.1".) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Nice steady light snow here...dusting so far. Very wintry appeal this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: For those curious, this is as far north as the mix line gets on the 3km NAM. Congrats IZG, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, tamarack said: Climo karma? GYX 90/50/10% product has Farmington at 6/10/13". Would be nice. (Of course, I remember last Feb 14 when at this distance the numbers were 8/17/21" and they verified at 5.1".) We both will do ok with this one, 6-10" and will end on the higher side, No reason to waver from this thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, tamarack said: Climo karma? GYX 90/50/10% product has Farmington at 6/10/13". Would be nice. (Of course, I remember last Feb 14 when at this distance the numbers were 8/17/21" and they verified at 5.1".) These events are much more stable... you can lock in 8-10" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd typically want to see a very intense vortmax riding up through like ALB to get a sfc low track over ORH...otherwise, it will run into that low level airmass and then get squeezed over RI/SE MA....very hard to run a sfc low into the interior without very good dynamical forcing to the west. Mid-level low? Sure....but not surface. How many times do we see this? It never fails. It’s going over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How many times do we see this? It never fails. It’s going over SE MA. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: We both will do ok with this one, 6-10" and will end on the higher side, No reason to waver from this thought. I think you can lock in 6-10" for everyone north of the MA/VT/NH borders... done deal. The trick is can we tickle a quick 5-6" down into ORH area before warming aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 27 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I don't think the NAM run is off, and I'm certainly not tossing it. I don't see any reason to toss it. The mid level and low level flow is out of the south and east, for hours leading up to go time, and during the storm. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NWS Phail here, 1/2" of snow with steady light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How many times do we see this? It never fails. It’s going over SE MA. Cape cod canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: How many times do we see this? It never fails. It’s going over SE MA. Surface low track though does not always correlate to a snowier one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cape cod canal. Could be, but I'd give it a little wiggle room to come north of there. Point is, it ain't going over White Rain's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Surface low track though does not always correlate to a snowier one. I'm thinking more for temps in those areas to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think you can lock in 6-10" for everyone north of the MA/VT/NH borders... done deal. The trick is can we tickle a quick 5-6" down into ORH area before warming aloft. A little more dicey down that way, A few miles one way or the other will be a big difference in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Could be, but I'd give it a little wiggle room to come north of there. Point is, it ain't going over White Rain's fanny. Not much north of there...maybe like Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I could get 2" and rain, 2" with bad ice, or 10" of paste....got it. Little PRE snow event happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not much north of there...maybe like Taunton. That's what the Swiss does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Surface low track though does not always correlate to a snowier one. No, the mid levels determine that. It does correlate to surface temp layout, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM much better up here than 6z run. SKI Mountains great hit, another 10 inches at Gore would bring the week to 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: SKI Mountains great hit, another 10 inches at Gore would bring the week to 20+ A bit too far north imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: I could get 2" and rain, 2" with bad ice, or 10" of paste....got it. Little PRE snow event happening right now. What you see now, Has nothing to do with tomorrows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: End of story. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Surface low track though does not always correlate to a snowier one. No kidding, I don't really care about the specific track of the SLP - not sure why everyone else does atm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking more for temps in those areas to the north. Oh, for sure. We know the drill on surface temps. But this may be more of a mashed potato 6:1 or 8:1 type snow for a lot. I'm not sure I trust the 10:1 algos and the Koochie is tossed off the Tobin for an event such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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