February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We will fish Ray out if the Tobin if this is a total Rainer. Lol. You will know he's jumping first "next" post

Don't buy it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I agree

It never has a clue with blocked systems and its thermals are turrable. Not saying a d5 euro op will have it nailed but it will handle those two features, which are top on the important list, much much better.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It never has a clue with blocked systems and its thermals are turrable. Not saying a d5 euro op will have it nailed but it will handle those two features, which are top on the important list, much much better.

Euro is notorious for hanging back s/w coming out of the SW so i don't know if you will get a feel for this for another couple days at least.

[weathafella]

GEFS says no changes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro should come south a bit, better confluence up north.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks like a big difference in canada compared to gfs.

[weathafella]

GFS the outlier.  I feel better actually vs 12z given the likely trends to a juggernaut snow event.

[CoastalWx]

LOL 3’ of snow to a graze on the euro.

[H2Otown_WX]

DIT's buzzed thoughts FTW?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Wat happenned...it got shredded? I didnt expect the shunt.

[codfishsnowman]

Ash Wednesday 1962 redux

[TalcottWx]

The GEFS mean might be south but there is an overwhelming cluster of lows NW.

[wxsniss]

0z EPS mean ticked a hair south compared to 12z... but median is clearly northwest of the mean... there are a handful of members way out in the Atlantic skewing the mean.

Needless to repeat, but we are days away from being confident in any particular solution.

 

[WinterWolf]

So...who said they are feeling confident in this potential storm??   

 

This is far from resolved...for anybody!!

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL 3’ of snow to a graze on the euro.

So much for the big block making the models more stable at extended lead time...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

GFS the outlier.  I feel better actually vs 12z given the likely trends to a juggernaut snow event.

The ole contrarian 0z euro pbp

[TalcottWx]

Euro ens Slower and NW cluster just like GFS.

Could care less about op runs

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, sbos_wx said:

Euro ens Slower and NW cluster just like GFS.

Could care less about op runs

This storm shouldn't be that amped up due to the blocking. The storm should exit around SNJ or the Del Marva.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Check out moisture stream from Tropics to Canada right now.. it will be a little while before there is a big pattern change 

[TalcottWx]

36 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This storm shouldn't be that amped up due to the blocking. The storm should exit around SNJ or the Del Marva.

Not going to act like I know where it's going to be a week out

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Not going to act like I know where it's going to be a week out

Of course

Plenty of time for changes either way

[powderfreak]

Over a half a foot of water on the 6z GFS for like KBED... that's insane.

The 2-3" in 6 hour type moisture would make this interesting even if its not snow.

Weird to have the EURO almost a whiff and the GFS be the NW guidance with temps in the 40s even up into NNE.

[moneypitmike]

6 hours ago, dryslot said:

I have more problems then worrying about the air mass, I'm taking a page out of the MPM handbook, We could snow up here if we have the qpf..........lol

Tell me about it.   Shades of the huge BWI hits a few years back when the models never budged from capture/stall down south.  For a week I was waiting/hoping for them to trend northward and they never did.  I think we were sunny and they had feet.

What would be a real bummer is if my flight home Friday morning were canceled (red-eye into JFK, 11:00 PWM) due to wind and all we had to show for it was rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ginx said 0 chance of not getting snow in SNE. So we run with that 

[Damage In Tolland]

Don’t think Scooter liked overnight trends 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t think Scooter liked overnight trends 

well, nothing could have really competed with yesterday's depictions.  The magnitude of shift is a bit surprising though.

Forecasts have already shifted from SN to RN or SN.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

well, nothing could have really competed with yesterday's depictions.  The magnitude of shift is a bit surprising though.

Forecasts have already shifted from SN to RN or SN.

What?  On a Day 5-6 forecast you are surprised it changed a little bit?  There's still a storm in the general vicinity which is about all you can ask for at this lead time.

[powderfreak]

The 925mb temps on the GFS are pretty fascinating associated with the firehose.

Pulling warm, moist air all the way up and in from way out in the Atlantic.  That's how you get a big QPF bomb.

[ineedsnow]

Thursday into the weekend...

Battle of airmasses between an ejecting low out of the Central CONUS
up against building high pressure into Canada. Slowed pattern, each
building their own weight, juxtaposition between the two ultimately
determining outcomes. Strong -NAO, -4 to -5 SD, would expect a cool,
dry setup for NE CONUS, storm track lying further S per block. Mid-
Atlantic getting crushed. Interrogating Washington DC top 10 snows
versus the NAO time series after 1948, 5 out of 7 storms, 3 prior to
1948, were associated with a -NAO around -3. Recall February 2010?
Washington DC "snowmageddon" of 17.8"? Monthly NAO averaged near -2.
Cherry picking data? Perhaps. CIPS analogs? Interrogating where NAO
indices <= -1, noting trend of sliding low S of New England, further
so with a stronger -NAO.

Ensemble members clustering off the Delmarva Peninsula while model
deterministic solutions are hugging further N close to Long Island.
Believe S trend is emerging per 25.0z EC. Echoing prior forecaster,
strong -NAO, subsequent block, storms forced E, slowed, evolving
into coastal storms, but storms could get suppressed S. It is all
about timing. Simply wait and see with later forecasts. But per
climatology, prefer ensemble clustering / 25.0z EC which are further
S compared to all other guidance.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The 925mb temps on the GFS are pretty fascinating associated with the firehose.

Pulling warm, moist air all the way up and in from way out in the Atlantic.  That's how you get a big QPF bomb.

If we don’t snow I hope for a flood. I have like 11” if precip since new year.