February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The southern areas are facing a thread the needle. Stronger confluence and it hits a brick wall....weaker confluence and we rain. A head scratcher when we finally get a block but the airmass is stale with best cold supply too far nw in hudson bay. 

[dryslot]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those fooking analogs are so stupid. Just stop with those things. 

The gauntlet got run on those the last couple days starting with 1888.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

The gauntlet got run on those the last couple days starting with 1888.

I still like a wetter Mar 01 just not as much snowfall but the samekind of precip distribution. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The gauntlet got run on those the last couple days starting with 1888.

People knee jerk to every run way too much. I could be wrong, but I'm not too concerned with suppression.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

So much for the big block making the models more stable at extended lead time...

Ensembles.

I'm confident.

[dendrite]

If it dies, it dies.

There’s way too much emotional investment into this at this time range. Some need to put a paper bag over their mouths, breathe in and out, and let another day or two of runs play out. You don’t want to burn through all of your Xanax in one week.

[ORH_wxman]

The analogs are all over the place anyway. 3/5/01 is an analog and also March 1980 (a congrats RIC storm) is also an analog. 

Give it another day or two. Ensmebles haven't changed much. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Funny how folks dismissed the shunt yesterday and now it’s most likely outcome 

No it isn't. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it dies, it dies.

There’s way too much emotional investment into this at this time range. Some need to put a paper bag over their mouths, breathe in and out, and let another day or two of runs play out. You don’t want to burn through all of your Xanax in one week.

who emotional?

Its a discussion forum, we discuss a potential biggie....if we all gave it a few days then lock just the thread until then. 

[CoastalWx]

On a side note, good to see we did have a pattern change.....change to a top tier warmest Feb. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

who emotional?

Its a discussion forum, we discuss a potential biggie....if we all gave it a few days then lock just the thread until then. 

I can just sense a different tone to the posts the past couple of days. No need to get defensive...it was just a general observation. No one said to not discuss it. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eps members do not look good. Was hoping more than 1 run had a non interior 1-2’ storm .....but, not much there to hold onto if you want a biggie down to the coast.

Nope.... the small chance of big snow on the coastal plain is fading fast. 

[CoastalWx]

  I love the concrete posts 5-6 days out. Tblizz has over 40" of not gonna happen this season.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

People knee jerk to every run way too much. I could be wrong, but I'm not too concerned with suppression.  

Can't live and die on ea model run, Pretty sure most will know sooner rather then later the outcome, But the next couple days are not going to say much other then keeping an eye on it until sampled.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dendrite said:

I can just sense a different tone to the posts the past couple of days. No need to get defensive...it was just a general observation. No one said to not discuss it. 

No worries. It was just me posting so when you say this, found it directed at me. The only one I see emotional about this is Wolfie, he gets very angry underneath his “nobody knows what will happen” posts. 

I love the hunt, and try to learn a bit in the process...if my posts look emotional, thats the internets fault. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No worries. It was just me posting so when you say this, found it directed at me. The only one I see emotional about this is Wolfie, he gets very angry underneath his “nobody knows what will happen” posts. 

I love the hunt, and try to learn a bit in the process...if my posts look emotional, thats the internets fault. 

Wolfie has rabies.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why I prefaced like every post yesterday saying it's silly to talk details. 

Yup. Everything still on the table. This is why I thought it was odd people were doing victory laps after the euro came out yesterday. Discussing where a coastal front may set up on a storm that is 6 days away.

My personal thoughts for this storm is it’s basically a lot of rain outside of NNE. 

Just because it’s slower and or squashed more south, doesn’t mean snow either. People seem to be forgetting that

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nope.... the small chance of big snow on the coastal plain is fading fast. 

I was saying what the members showed, thats all. I dont think things are fading fast though....not yet at least.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  I love the concrete posts 5-6 days out. Tblizz has over 40" of not gonna happen this season.

Meh.... I’ve been fine. Good year down here... no complaints. We’ve seen enough storms to know whatever a model shows at a day 6 lead probably isn’t going to happen or even be close to what will happen

[qg_omega]

It really does not matter if the low exits off the Delmarva or over Long island, there is no cold air.  It's a rain storm if the low is over Long Island and a whiff if it is off the Delmarva.  Only chance if it's over Long Island is in the higher elevations of the Cats and Berks.  The blocking has moved the PV into Europe and our airmass is Pacific

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. Everything still on the table. This is why I thought it was odd people were doing victory laps after the euro came out yesterday. Discussing where a coastal front may set up on a storm that is 6 days away.

My personal thoughts for this storm is it’s basically a lot of rain outside of NNE. 

Just because it’s slower and or squashed more south, doesn’t mean snow either. People seem to be forgetting that

Yea, agree. sfc low track is not the end all be all with this....but it will deff help if it goes underneath, duh to me, but we need to improve on mid level cooling next few days imo.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, agree. sfc low track is not the end all be all with this. 

But those SST's.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. Everything still on the table. This is why I thought it was odd people were doing victory laps after the euro came out yesterday. Discussing where a coastal front may set up on a storm that is 6 days away.

My personal thoughts for this storm is it’s basically a lot of rain outside of NNE. 

Just because it’s slower and or squashed more south, doesn’t mean snow either. People seem to be forgetting that

Scott and I were discussing the model run in the model thread. That is how the coastal front topic came up.

Get over it-

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also stated yesterday, OP runs are fun to look at sometimes, but the ensembles are where it is at outside day 5.

I think it will hit, but if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But I think I'm going to take a break until we get closer in bc the mood swings blow. Dealt with the same crap before the last blizzard that shunted.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just trying to understand this: not that anyone should analyze the cmc but from a theoretical aspect....can someone explain to me how that is rain on the 0z cmc at 12z Friday? mid 925 and 850 seem cold enough for snow...is this a case of silly surface algorithms gone wrong?

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No worries. It was just me posting so when you say this, found it directed at me. The only one I see emotional about this is Wolfie, he gets very angry underneath his “nobody knows what will happen” posts. 

I love the hunt, and try to learn a bit in the process...if my posts look emotional, thats the internets fault. 

Lol...who’s angry??  Where did that come from??  I’m not angry one bit...not one bit.

if it misses, it misses. If it rains, it rains. I can’t duscuss like everybody else is??  Geez.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just trying to understand this: not that anyone should analyze the cmc but from a theoretical aspect....can someone explain to me how that is rain on the 0z cmc at 12z Friday? mid 925 and 850 seem cold enough for snow...is this a case of silly surface algorithms gone wrong?

In all likelihood, the thermals are wrong on all the models at this range.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

In all likelihood, the thermals are wrong on all the models at this range.

But it should be snow if its like -5C and -2C respectively, right?

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But it should be snow if its like -5C and -2C respectively, right?

I would think so, especially with good rates.

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But it should be snow if its like -5C and -2C respectively, right?

Most likely yes. I did not dig into the thermals much, but as you get into March, model surface temps can bias warm if the temps aloft are cold enough.