February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[CoastalWx]

I’m not sure why we are forming some sort of linear relationship to low pressure mslp and the amount of moisture. I’ve seen sh*t lows deliver a ton of moisture thanks to isentropic lift. That depends more on the mid and upper levl flow. Whn you have a low from the Deep South, I’m usually not worried about its Mslp.

[Typhoon Tip]

Couple of those in 1978 one of which dropped well over a foot over a large area off a 1001 mb bag of Gulf pwat

[Typhoon Tip]

It may not look like an idealized art on that run but particulars with that look would create a very proficient snow wall/IB ... that HP is quintessentially oriented for incurring WAA/isentrope event

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

It already is sheared out. 1008 mb. Weak wave riding along a CF. That’s it. HP in eastern Canada is tenuous as is, and will not be in the picture at all by go time if the WAR builds the way I expect it to. 

Wed?

[25thamendmentfan]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where does this God live? 

Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd plan on at least some snow Wednesday...may be significant....especially Boston points north and west.....and I 84 north and west.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/rainy-monday-snow-possible-wednesday.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may not look like an idealized art on that run but particulars with that look would create a very proficient snow wall/IB ... that HP is quintessentially oriented for incurring WAA/isentrope event

Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd plan on at least some snow Wednesday...may be significant.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/rainy-monday-snow-possible-wednesday.html

Sounds like you're feeling it for weds Ray

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Sounds like you're feeling it for weds Ray

As in something respectable, yes...could be the biggest since 1/4 for spots like my locale...not saying a ton.

[SnowGoose69]

I don't have 500mb yet but the UKIE at 72 looks pretty darn flat with the precip over the TN valley area compared to the GFS and CMC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Doug Simonian had a nice piece on a potential  SSW....I buy it, and expect it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Really like where we are headed...just takes time.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? 

Obsessed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Obsessed 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? 

Fyi it's Moosup, definitely not God's country, on the other hand Weekapug is

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half.

Fast and furious 10 days then I fear thermal gradients are gone,  gulf closes. Thinking seasonable and dry 13th through 18th. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fast and furious 10 days then I fear thermal gradients are gone,  gulf closes. Thinking seasonable and dry 13th through 18th. 

Good time for that lol

[CoastalWx]

Bit of a reverse in trends last night for Wednesday. 

[CoastalWx]

Shades were opening, but back to closing again. Should be good for the mtns though.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Shades were opening, but back to closing again. Should be good for the mtns though.

Rays feeling it 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rays feeling it 

They'll be some front end snow, but wasn't exactly the trend I was hoping to see from 00z and 06z. NNE special.

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure why we are forming some sort of linear relationship to low pressure mslp and the amount of moisture. I’ve seen sh*t lows deliver a ton of moisture thanks to isentropic lift. That depends more on the mid and upper levl flow. Whn you have a low from the Deep South, I’m usually not worried about its Mslp.

I was thinking a stronger system would have increased jet dynamics and better low level conveyors... sort of like stronger low, stronger H7-H85 winds leading to increased lift/moisture?  I was noticing it yesterday on the runs...drier runs had lower H85 winds and the wetter runs were stronger S/SW flow at that level.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was thinking a stronger system would have increased jet dynamics and better low level conveyors... sort of like stronger low, stronger H7-H85 winds leading to increased lift/moisture?  I was noticing it yesterday on the runs...drier runs had lower H85 winds and the wetter runs were stronger S/SW flow at that level.

I mean there is some of that, but I've seen a WF draped to our south with these POS waves running along it dump 1-2" of QPF before. If you have a nice high to the north and deep layer WAA...you don't need 70kts at 850 ramming into the region. Just good ole fashioned isentropic lift, aided by high pressure forming a nice frontal slope.  My comments were more for the pope saying that it's only a 1008 mb low. The pressure is all relative to the ambient environmental pressure. It's silly to say "well it's only 1008mb.." as if that matters. 

[powderfreak]

Man the Euro EPS are looking real good this morning for all the mountains... that's a solid 5 day period between this evening's snow and then Wednesday. 

Out of the 50 individual members there isn't a lot of spread, much less than yesterday.  They seem pretty dialed in but we know how that's gone this winter with performance in the last 84 hours.  Just a widespread 1-1.5" QPF gain for the mountains as frozen over the next 4-5 days.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean there is some of that, but I've seen a WF draped to our south with these POS waves running along it dump 1-2" of QPF before. If you have a nice high to the north and deep layer WAA...you don't need 70kts at 850 ramming into the region. Just good ole fashioned isentropic lift, aided by high pressure forming a nice frontal slope.  My comments were more for the pope saying that it's only a 1008 mb low. The pressure is all relative to the ambient environmental pressure. It's silly to say "well it's only 1008mb.." as if that matters. 

Ah that makes sense, thanks. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man the Euro EPS are looking real good this morning for all the mountains... that's a solid 5 day period between this evening's snow and then Wednesday. 

Out of the 50 individual members there isn't a lot of spread, much less than yesterday.  They seem pretty dialed in but we know how that's gone this winter with performance in the last 84 hours.  Just a widespread 1-1.5" QPF gain for the mountains as frozen over the next 4-5 days.

The S VT areas are not looking great tonight so need to cash in on Wed. 

[moneypitmike]

It looks like Wednesday's start has been pushed back a few hours as well.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Not great trends south of the Pike on Wednesday, hopefully the setup can sag back southeast a bit.  Getting a bit hungry for more than scraps here.  A nice 6 inch plus mainly snowfall event would get us back on track around this area.

[Damage In Tolland]

Best SNE can hope for is 1-2 more snowfalls that get us near Climo amounts. Any big KU or weeks period of snow chances is gone and with all guidance locked in on a very warm Morch.. well .. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Best SNE can hope for is 1-2 more snowfalls that get us near Climo amounts. Any big KU or weeks period of snow chances is gone and with all guidance locked in on a very warm Morch.. well .. 

Reasonable thoughts.