February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Blizz]

Wew lad!

[ORH_wxman]

Nothing like a 384 hour GFS map to get the juices flowing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[Blizz]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing like a 384 hour GFS map to get the juices flowing.

Haha, you right.

 

A lot depends on the MJO I guess? If it goes into the COD, models probably will handle it with high volativity. EPO and PNA look solid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, The weaker flatter outcomes have seemed to prevail so far.

The wave seems to be deamplifying upon approach, so I'd bet against an inside runner. But the lack of cold should keep the band of significant snows rather thin, albeit relatively close.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The wave seems to be deamplifying upon approach, so I'd bet against an inside runner. But the lack of cold should keep the band of significant snows rather thin, albeit relatively close.

Agree, Live and die on the edge, But that is where the volatility lives which keeps this interesting.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday came in colder and east too. Both on GGEM and GFS.

 

 

 

As is that looked like another of these ice storms that falls .06" shy of warning accretion - heh. seems to be a recurring theme this winter - why the hell not.  

but as you say, 'trend' being the operative word

[Cold Miser]

Just catching up since last night.  Looks like some crappy changes to the "pattern change" for next week.  Was hoping for a good snowstorm, but that does not seem to be in the cards at least for my area.

[Typhoon Tip]

i hate the habit in graphical Met of saying "anomaly" on products that give above normal temperatures in whole degrees.  That's just f irritatingly wrong. 

[Typhoon Tip]

K...just had a chance to scan over the GEFS -based tele's, both agencies, ...  I don't know what others have seen of this so implicitly espoused asteroid impact of an EPS appeal, (...I don't get to see the over-valued product ) but just based upon that tenor of that, the GEFs part company as to how the mid month will unfold - by a wide margin.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like the Euro might be colder for Monday just because the whole of the thing is moving so fast it's out before it can warm up -

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the Euro might be colder for Monday just because the whole of the thing is moving so fast it's out before it can warm up -

Ship is sailing on that in SNE. Hopefully Wed works out.

[dryslot]

Amp happy run on the 12z Euro for Sunday night-Monday.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Amp happy run on the 12z Euro for Sunday night-Monday.

And Wed.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And Wed.

That's a bad look, Maybe its right this time, But i'll hedge against it for now.

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree. This looks to break down late Feb and Morch looks very warm. We’ve got 3-4 weeks left imo 

Strongly agree.  Maybe a tad less.

[CoastalWx]

Break out the Speedos. 

[ORH_wxman]

I still think parts of SNE can do ok on Sunday night/Monday....Wed is a long ways out...Euro is def the most amped and would be a bad solution, but we've seen that movie before around D5-6 only to have it come back down.

 

Best spot in each one would obviously be the interior.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Strongly agree.  Maybe a tad less.

I'd watch for a phase change event on the backside of that-

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I still think parts of SNE can do ok on Sunday night/Monday....Wed is a long ways out...Euro is def the most amped and would be a bad solution, but we've seen that movie before around D5-6 only to have it come back down.

 

Best spot in each one would obviously be the interior.

 

If it’s weaker like all other models depict .. does it mean snow to ice or just cold rain? Euro all alone on torch rains to Maine’s it seems 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I still think parts of SNE can do ok on Sunday night/Monday....Wed is a long ways out...Euro is def the most amped and would be a bad solution, but we've seen that movie before around D5-6 only to have it come back down.

 

Best spot in each one would obviously be the interior.

 

I think the Berks and N hills of ORH co at least could still score plowable Monday.

[jbenedet]

Glorified FROPA, Sunday/Monday that's what's coming...been pretty clear to me anyway...

No help from dynamics...Going to be all about where the boundary sets up...12z Euro slices it through 50% of New England.

At this point, I have confidence this will be a big win for major ski locales at least...

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it’s weaker like all other models depict .. does it mean snow to ice or just cold rain? Euro all alone on torch rains to Maine’s it seems 

No, next Wednesday could def still be snowy...you get a solution closer to the GGEM or even the GFS wasn't very far from pulling off a mostly snow/frozen event for NW half of SNE. Euro is obviously a hideous scenario, but at D6, all options still on the table.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, next Wednesday could def still be snowy...you get a solution closer to the GGEM or even the GFS wasn't very far from pulling off a mostly snow/frozen event for NW half of SNE. Euro is obviously a hideous scenario, but at D6, all options still on the table.

What about Sunday/ Monday?

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What about Sunday/ Monday?

That one is def gonna be harder to get a moderate/heavy snowfall. I could see it ending up more diffuse though and we stay a bit colder and see a general light snow over the interior further away from BL issues. But it has some work to do...the best spots for that would prob be like NW MA/N ORH county....that area. But we've seen some of these things come in colder this season already....if we can trend that retreating high a bit more to hanging a node back southwest into ME/NNE, then we may see a better chance for snow. Would be nice if northern stream got put through the meat grinder a little bit.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That one is def gonna be harder to get a moderate/heavy snowfall. I could see it ending up more diffuse though and we stay a bit colder and see a general light snow over the interior further away from BL issues. But it has some work to do...the best spots for that would prob be like NW MA/N ORH county....that area. But we've seen some of these things come in colder this season already....if we can trend that retreating high a bit more to hanging a node back southwest into ME/NNE, then we may see a better chance for snow. Would be nice if northern stream got put through the meat grinder a little bit.

Let’s just try and keep it in the 30’s if it rains and not torch away the pack 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No pack here, I hope it torches to the 50s.

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i hate the habit in graphical Met of saying "anomaly" on products that give above normal temperatures in whole degrees.  That's just f irritatingly wrong. 

Please explain

[The 4 Seasons]

OKX hittin' the pipe hard.

[CoastalWx]

Better EPS run today. I think next week is probably tough for SNE (outside maybe far interior SNE) but hopefully something better past day 10ish.