February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was ecstatic with negative EPO.  Some wanted nothing but PNA, we snowed thanks to EPO tanking now their leg humping of PNA has led to uncertainty and precip type issues. Congrats on the PNA. Congrats ski areas and NNE

I’ll take either or. As long as its not a zonal flood of warmth, we can score. cutters and inland runners are at risk but I like to play with fire like Bevis.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPO is overrated. PNA is not ans has been statistically correlated to good events here. Unfortunately, the EPS is not a PNA pattern. The GEFS is better looking for that.

Looks like PNA Sunday, tell ya what give me the cold and I 'll give you the snow

 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This upcoming pattern is better then the one we just came out of, We may walk the line but i would rather have it be active even if we have to taint then what we just came out of, I'll take my chances.

We gained +PNA but lost -AO, and NAO became more positive. Net positive, for region wide snow chances in early Feb but hurts our chances for getting a deep system and arctic COLD also diminished.

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This upcoming pattern is better then the one we just came out of, We may walk the line but i would rather have it be active even if we have to taint then what we just came out of, I'll take my chances.

I'm fine with some taint and generally agree but want no part of the last couple of systems that have left me with a front yard full of ice.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We gained +PNA but lost -AO, and NAO became more positive. Net positive, for region wide snow chances but hurts our chances for getting a deep system and arctic COLD also diminished.

Some of us can do fine without the arctic cold, We can survive with a +NAO as well, Not the most ideal situation, No need to have the PV overhead, Climo cold will suffice, Just bring us the activity, We will take our chances.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Whineminster said:

I thought winter was returning? 

Not this soon.

[dryslot]

12z GFS coming in colder for the Sun-Mon system.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like PNA Sunday, tell ya what give me the cold and I 'll give you the snow

 

That's not a PNA. ridge is south of PANC. EPO FTL.

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We gained +PNA but lost -AO, and NAO became more positive. Net positive, for region wide snow chances in early Feb but hurts our chances for getting a deep system and arctic COLD also diminished.

The -AO still appears to be coming.  It’s jist going to be 5-7 days later.  I think the model progs rushed it.  The GFS was trying to show it when we were still going to be in phase 6 of the MJO

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS coming in colder for the Sun-Mon system.

Every darn system is going flatter inside Day 3-4.  It makes you wonder if we need to see a track overhead or across Binghamton at Day 5 to get a big event 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Back to reality. Donny baseball with a great great post 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50883-february-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4803574

Don't disagree with any of that.

Just always favored the second half of Feb, as opposed to the first.

[dryslot]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Every darn system is going flatter inside Day 3-4.  It makes you wonder if we need to see a track overhead or across Binghamton at Day 5 to get a big event 

This is true, All winter so far, We have seen this progression on modeled cutters out past day 5, All these cutters for the most part have all been flatter weaker and east in this progressive flow and has worked out on the plus side more so then not, With no blocking this has been the way to stay on the wintry side if not these would all be tracking thru the lakes.

[CoastalWx]

Looks good for the NNE mtns on Monday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Every darn system is going flatter inside Day 3-4.  It makes you wonder if we need to see a track overhead or across Binghamton at Day 5 to get a big event 

Theres not much room to get a big event in this flow. Maybe like a 6-10”, yea. I guess ‘big’ is subjective. 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I completely understand this point. From a mechanical standpoint - the dampening of synoptic wave development --is clear to understand when the background flow is moving the disturbance faster than it can "spin-up", if you will. 

Something I know you understand but for the sake of clarity - there's also different levels of fast/progressive flow. The - - AO was a key ingredient for the blizzard earlier this month...I think this current period is probably the most progressive we have seen thus far and I'd be very skeptical of any deep storm systems until either the AO or NAO flip decisively negative, or at least closer to a net-neutral state.

Well, there's that .. .but I'm also drilling down to the level of restoring forces - at least implicitly. 

What I mean is, if a wind max moves/enters over a region, then you'll have layers that initialize air to flow underneath... These critical 'conveyors' in the total cyclone model are purely a response to conservation of mass. and are the whole game really.   

Typically S/W wind phenomenon associated with the "streaks" are 50 to 110 kts.  If the geostrophic wind velocity is already moving at 90 kts, than the arithmetic there should make this obvious... First of all, less speed S/W wind maxes don't stand a chance physically.  While the 110ers ...they are rare for one, but, you have 30 or so knts (just using this example) left over to create the mass imbalance --> less restoring/mass conservation means less jet responses, and the total cyclone gets more and more negated.  

But we're talking about the same thing ... really.  If the restoring need is there, the restoring jets are stronger --> influx of moisture is heftier and that leads to more latent heat release and associated heights falls are stronger...etc..etc, and then you get that better spin up quotient you're talking about..

[dryslot]

Even the 12z GGEM, It has a weak 1008 MB track right over SE MA on Sunday-Monday, Looks very similar to its 0z run.

[dryslot]

Will watch when we get closer in to see if the CAD stays in place longer, It has on just about every system this winter, Although not as ideal this time around.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Even the 12z GGEM, It has a weak 1008 MB track right over SE MA on Sunday-Monday, Looks very similar to its 0z run.

Probably can squeak something out into your hood and points west. Gonna need help outside of sunday flakes here.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably can squeak something out into your hood and points west. Gonna need help outside of sunday flakes here.

Kind of in a box to what you really want to see happen with this one, A weaker strung out system will get some snow inside the coast and back west, Something more wrapped up will try to cut and flood us with more warmth out ahead of the s/w, Obviously a well place HP over QUE would lock in the cold and get this to track further SE, Some are going to have issues no matter the out come, Just not enough cold available to push further south as its retreating.

[ORH_wxman]

Wednesday came in colder and east too. Both on GGEM and GFS.

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

EPO helping 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kind of in a box to what you really want to see happen with this one, A weaker strung out system will get some snow inside the coast and back west, Something more wrapped up will try to cut and flood us with more warmth out ahead of the s/w, Obviously a well place HP over QUE would lock in the cold and get this to track further SE, Some are going to have issues no matter the out come, Just not enough cold available to push further south as its retreating.

Yea, the dearth of superaltive outcomes in guidance is symptomatic of what remains a fairly unfavorable regime. Not awful, but pretty hostile to the prospect of big snows over a large area. Some could pull off a decent event, as we saw Tuesday AM....but expectations should remain in check for a couple of weeks.

JMHO...could be wrong.

I don't think Monday will be very amped, though.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday came in colder and east too. Both on GGEM and GFS.

 

 

 

Yeah, That's a good look for ski country.

[jbenedet]

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The -AO still appears to be coming.  It’s jist going to be 5-7 days later.  I think the model progs rushed it.  The GFS was trying to show it when we were still going to be in phase 6 of the MJO

Yea, I was just talking about near term. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The -AO still appears to be coming.  It’s jist going to be 5-7 days later.  I think the model progs rushed it.  The GFS was trying to show it when we were still going to be in phase 6 of the MJO

Bingo...pattern has been rushed. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Every darn system is going flatter inside Day 3-4.  It makes you wonder if we need to see a track overhead or across Binghamton at Day 5 to get a big event 

Agree.

[jbenedet]

37 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some of us can do fine without the arctic cold, We can survive with a +NAO as well, Not the most ideal situation, No need to have the PV overhead, Climo cold will suffice, Just bring us the activity, We will take our chances.

Oh I agree. Latitudinal gradient with peak climo; it works - albeit marginally for most in NNE and interior SNE...

Basically this is much better for the snow enthusiast than the storm enthusiast. That's what my point was...

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the dearth of superaltive outcomes in guidance is symptomatic of what remains a fairly unfavorable regime. Not awful, but pretty hostile to the prospect of big snows over a large area. Some could pull off a decent event, as we saw Tuesday AM....but expectations should remain in check for a couple of weeks.

JMHO...could be wrong.

I don't think Monday will be very amped, though.

Yeah, The weaker flatter outcomes have seemed to prevail so far.

[SnowGoose69]

Part of the issue may also be the NAO on some of the progs is now forecast to go raging positive.  There is a difference between 0.7 and 2.5 on the NAO even when the EPO and AO are negative and the PNA is positive. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Oh I agree. Latitudinal gradient with peak climo; it works - albeit marginally for most...

Basically this is much better for the snow enthusiast than the storm enthusiast. That's what my point was...

We all would like to have more MECS and HECS type systems, I just don't see any of that with how this pattern is shaping up, So we will have to nickel and dime our way along here for now, But yeah, This favors some but hurts others as far as snow goes.