clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 16 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Today's off-the chart mjo ensemble does look promising for phase 8 in the long range. Yeah. I saw that. If it is accurate there is no way we dont go into phase 8 and 1 in February. That is about as as good as it gets for a Februrary MJO forecast. Of course the MJO forecast has performed horridly so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, looks good again. Much more amplified than the euro. Which seems backwards lately. All we can do is hug the gfs until the euro caves right? lol Well, happy hour delivers again..tricks us into staying up for 0z and we know how it goes. In all seriousness, I'm still hanging in their for a d4 miracle, but this 180 hour threat is probably all we've got in the next 8-14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GEFS plenty better for NW parts of this forum with the upcoming 8-9 day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS plenty better for NW parts of this forum with the upcoming 8-9 day window. Can you post the individual members please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Climate175 said: Now if only the GFS can keep showing this solution for Feb 1/2 until early next week. we need to get this to 84-96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Can you post the individual members please. Has a couple hits that only hit NW burbs and give nada to DC and SE. Mean snowfall is NW of DC, which isn't good, but it fits the pattern. We will be fighting the r/s line as much as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Weeklies look fine again. Pretty much the same general pattern we are seeing the first week of Feb holding on for 4 weeks. First week of March probably looks the best of the bunch but overall it's a roller coaster progressive pattern with a +PNA/-EPO right up until the end when it breaks down. Not an eye popping type of winter pattern but far better than anything we've been experiencing the last 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to get this to 84-96 hours So how do we do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: So how do we do that? Uhh.. ask it nicely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look fine again. Pretty much the same general pattern we are seeing the first week of Feb holding on for 4 weeks. First week of March probably looks the best of the bunch but overall it's a roller coaster progressive pattern with a +PNA/-EPO right up until the end when it breaks down. Not an eye popping type of winter pattern but far better than anything we've been experiencing the last 2 weeks. Best look since the late December juiced stj fiasco. As long as we are fighting between ptype rather than precip... I'm sold on this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: So how do we do that? Sacrificing chickens while brewing a pot of crows lips, lizard wings, and the eye of a south american flesh eating barn spider is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sacrificing chickens while brewing a pot of crows lips, lizard wings, and the eye of a south american flesh eating barn spider is a good start. It sounds like you have done this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS plenty better for NW parts of this forum with the upcoming 8-9 day window. Everyone needs to understand and accept that we are in a very dry pattern. I tried to introduce this to this board 3 weeks ago. The causes are beyond anything I have witnessed. Last year it ended in April. Last winter I received 4.5 inches of snow in in a dry pattern In January of 96, I received 33 inches of snow and 9.36 inches of rain and melted snow. 3 times normal. A wet pattern relates to snowfall , the long range offers some hope. but, not a lot. The experts on this board will hopefully give us a heads up regarding when this abnormally dry pattern will break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Beyond anything you have witnessed? Really? Take it to the drought thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, stormy said: Everyone needs to understand and accept that we are in a very dry pattern. I tried to introduce this to this board 3 weeks ago. The causes are beyond anything I have witnessed. Last year it ended in April. Last winter I received 4.5 inches of snow in in a dry pattern In January of 96, I received 33 inches of snow and 9.36 inches of rain and melted snow. 3 times normal. A wet pattern relates to snowfall , the long range offers some hope. but, not a lot. The experts on this board will hopefully give us a heads up regarding when this abnormally dry pattern will break. What do you think we should do about it? Rain dance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look fine again. Pretty much the same general pattern we are seeing the first week of Feb holding on for 4 weeks. First week of March probably looks the best of the bunch but overall it's a roller coaster progressive pattern with a +PNA/-EPO right up until the end when it breaks down. Not an eye popping type of winter pattern but far better than anything we've been experiencing the last 2 weeks. To me it was an ok look then a very good look for a couple weeks before it breaks down right at the end. We should luck our way into at least one respectable snow if that's how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To me it was an ok look then a very good look for a couple weeks before it breaks down right at the end. We should luck our way into at least one respectable snow if that's how we roll. The advertised pattern looks decent enough and should offer ample precip chances. February is a snow month. It likes to snow in Feb. And early March lately. It will probably rain plenty, but there should also be a few snow events mixed in. Probably not a good pattern for those who want a big storm or a 3-6" snowstorm that sticks around for a week. Mid Feb into the first week of March may be the best period if the weeklies are to be believed. Not much skill though beyond EPS day 15 + a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To me it was an ok look then a very good look for a couple weeks before it breaks down right at the end. We should luck our way into at least one respectable snow if that's how we roll. Yea, the broad conus trough look late Feb into early March is pretty good. Also perfect timing with largest bn temp departures hitting when we need it the most. It's been a pretty boring and disappointing 5 weeks since the early Dec event. Would be nice if something breaks our way. Maybe the ivt next week works out and sets the tone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The advertised pattern looks decent enough and should offer ample precip chances. February is a snow month. It likes to snow in Feb. And early March lately. It will probably rain plenty, but there should also be a few snow events mixed in. Probably not a good pattern for those who want a big storm or a 3-6" snowstorm that sticks around for a week. Mid Feb into the first week of March may be the best period if the weeklies are to be believed. Not much skill though beyond EPS day 15 + a week. I'm hoping we can pull off mutiple events and always have something trackable on the radar. Agree that a big storm seems pretty unlikely but with a battleground/gradient look it's possible to get a 6-12" event without a well developed coastal. Something like a 6-8 hour period of mod snow would feel like massive event considering it's been 2 years since the last time we saw heavy rates like that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Interesting, seems the MJO amplitude being forecasted may not really be an anomaly . That/s pretty crazy what is being forecasted, and so strong is the projected MJO phases that some mets are saying this puts an end to the La Nina, granted that is not like rocket science as most Ninas do weaken in the Spring, however, this weakening may happen a lot faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Good post frd. These are the types of details about NWP I like to file in the memory banks. I know we're bruised and jaded from how things have gone so far but at least we have a chance at a strong finish. Maybe we pull off something like what happened in 2015. First 10 weeks of that winter were pretty bad but when it flipped we made up for lost ground in a hurry. And unlike some here, I like accum snow period. I couldnt give less of a crap if it comes during "sun angle season". Snow falling and accumulating in April that gets nuked 15 minutes after sunrise would still make me happy AF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Yes please 00z GFS for our NW crew... I still like it for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 GFS is close to a big event for most of the forum. Western folks that are snow starved would absolutely love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Yes please 00z GFS The 12z was better... but the 0z was close to something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Decent events on both the gfs and cmc now. Gfs is on a roll with 8 runs in a row with snow around the 2nd-3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: The 12z was better... but the 0z was close to something big. Get that SLP at hour 186 another 50 to 70 miles SE and we all enjoy big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Decent events on both the gfs and cmc now. Gfs is on a roll with 8 runs in a row with snow around the 2nd-3rd CMC is decent, though it has a North to south gradient... GFS has more a NW to SE gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: CMC is decent, though it has a North to south gradient... GFS has more a NW to SE gradient We're still way out in time. The only thing that matters to me is that ops keep showing a wave running the boundary in a really good spot for us to get some snow. The amounts are going to change every 6 hours for 6 days. Just keep us in or near the game and I'm satisfied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 GFS has a system moving through every 2-3 days. Just as many 1040+ highs dropping down as well... A pattern of surprises and heartache for the foreseeable future but certainly not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're still way out in time. The only thing that matters to me is that ops keep showing a wave running the boundary in a really good spot for us to get some snow. The amounts are going to change every 6 hours for 6 days. Just keep us in or near the game and I'm satisfied So...in 2015...we just happened to luck out and be on the snow side of the line for most of those chances? Lol (sounds like this is gonna be a Russian roullete) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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