stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Waiting on temps... 12z UKIE at hr 72 QPF So what do we do with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So what do we do with this? Miracle for Monday-Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 HR 72 on 12z UKMET meteogram for DCA has 850s that are at 0C and going down into the negatives... 2m temps around 34/35 and falling... so I am guessing any of the precip that comes after will be snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Is the 12z UKIE out on wxgraphics yet? I would like to see what happens between 72 and 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Of note: the inverted trough generating some brief snow for the region Tuesday morning on GFS isn't directly associated with the main surface low, which is long gone up the coast. The coastal gets strung out as it moves up the coast and the weak tail of the elongated low develops a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I think the 12z JMA looks nice... 1009 SLP just SW of HSE at 72, near ILM... 1039 H parked in Quebec... 850 0c line getting ready to cross into DCA QPF through 72 is 0.80" or so at DCA (which we know is rain)... after is when we may snow -- @Ji work your magic for the 96 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: I think the 12z JMA looks nice... 1009 SLP just SW of HSE at 72... 1039 H parked in Quebec... 850 0c line getting ready to cross into DCA Using the thickness on WxBell suggests it shows like a 1-3" at least, assuming it flips sometime between 84-96. Could be more, the maps I see just kinda suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Using the thickness on WxBell suggests it shows like a 1-3" at least, assuming it flips sometime between 84-96. Could be more, the maps I see just kinda suck. I think thats yesterdays run... when i go to check it on WB its date is 2018012512... which is 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I think thats yesterdays run... when i go to check it on WB its date is 2018012512... which is 12z yesterday Yeah, you're right. I'd say I'd t*ke that run too but I might be smited by the powers that be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Wow GEFS actually shows several snowy hits from the coastal. Dicey temps as you can imagine but a few paste bombs for the NW crew while it rains on Wes and I bite my nails as I watch it from sunny SoCal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Ok here's the REAL DEAL UKMET run for 12z TODAY. It is beautiful. I added a total precip frame to the end for ya. That blue streak over DC is at 84 hours (6 hours of 1" per hour snow) . Temps seem fine for snow in DC around hour 76 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Wow GEFS actually shows several snowy hits from the coastal. Dicey temps as you can imagine but a few paste bombs for the NW crew while it rains on Wes and I bite my nails as I watch it from sunny SoCal. The overnight EPS threw out 5 coastal solutions as well after being for the most part devoid of such solutions from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 UK smoking bowls today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: UK smoking bowls today. UK gave us 2 feet of snow once this winter when all the other models had the blizzard of 2018 missing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 True Ji... but right now it looks to be JMA/UKMET/GEFS/NAVGEM giving us some nice goodies from a potential coastal on Monday into Monday night... GFS on Tuesday with the IVT True, we may end up with nothing... but right now it certainly looks more interesting than it did 12-24 hours ago for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Euro has the trailing wave idea that the UK has but it’s rain for us. Interesting developments and definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 What are the GEFS showing for Feb 2/3... Amped or Boundary runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Euro has the trailing wave idea that the UK has but it’s rain for us. Interesting developments and definitely worth watching. 850s are cold enough to support wintry precip, but surface temps are toasty at the mid-upper 30s That 34 degree area near the bay is where precip is falling the heaviest, in which case it shows a mix of wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: What are the GEFS showing for Feb 2/3... Amped or Boundary runner? https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50816-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/?do=findComment&comment=4796323 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: eh--euro is a disaster. For the 2/3rd thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For the 2/3rd thing? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50816-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/?do=findComment&comment=4796323 No, that’s for the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50816-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/?do=findComment&comment=4796323 That is for Monday-Tuesday... I was asking about Friday-Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 JMA is a hit. If you subtract the qpf from before 72 hours it still drops another .5 + after that should be snow. I'm mildly interested in the idea of another wave developing as the upper energy comes through. And if not just the IVT could luck us into something. Not down on long range either but the delicate interplay of all the waves on the front isn't going to be resolved from range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: That is for Monday-Tuesday... I was asking about Friday-Saturday It has more cutters than not, but it also has 1 or 2 that slide South of us. With seasonal trends maybe the models continually weaken the event and not have a 990 low up in Maine. Hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I don’t have precip panels, but the euro looks much more exciting for the 30th and still mostly flat for the 2/3rd event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: So what do we do with this? File it away with the 30 other 100+hr runs that have amounted to zippy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I don’t have precip panels, but the euro looks much more exciting for the 30th and still mostly flat for the 2/3rd event. AH, ok, I was mistaken re: the link I posted from you. Go on about the 30th..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 AH, ok, I was mistaken re: the link I posted from you. Go on about the 30th.....It's going to be the usual T to 2 inches. But it's never 2 inches....or even oneSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I don’t have precip panels, but the euro looks much more exciting for the 30th and still mostly flat for the 2/3rd event. It was closer to something but in the end didn't get the wave going enough. We get a flizzard basically but I'm curious to see if the EPS (like the gefs) includes some nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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