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WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gfs will make sure this thread starts off in classic MA fashion...unmitigated disaster

I bet it'll be right where we want it. 

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nam says it's snowing at 84 trends!!

Your grand kids will speak of the great heavy cartopper of January 2018 and how the NAM nailed it.  

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1 minute ago, Ian said:

I bet it'll be right where we want it. 

Oh, there's no doubt. I had a complicated week and I'm feeling burned out. Nothing that a calculated trolling spree can't fix though. Coffee is kicking in so I should have plenty of material in 30 minutes or so  

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Bets on who poo poos it first

When the coastal grazes the delmarva and not even a trace makes it west of the bay then mitch should be off the rails. He has the flu so it might be incoherent. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

When the coastal grazes the delmarva and not even a trace makes it west of the bay then mitch should be off the rails. He has the flu so it might be incoherent. 

You spelled Ji wrong again

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh, there's no doubt. I had a complicated week and I'm feeling burned out. Nothing that a calculated trolling spree can't fix though. Coffee is kicking in so I should have plenty of material in 30 minutes or so  

Same, plus or minus. We'll get some accumulation this week so that's good news. I am chasing avg+. Seriously tho the first part looks like a decent little thing in its own... I could see widespread 1"+ out of that if it works out.. not the most common thing either, so somewhat neat.  This winter has generally given snow lovers all it can locally so far so I remain generally positive about how things are going despite minimal precip etc etc. 

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I am about as excited as the fat kid who pulls up to chick fila on a Sunday afternoon

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

You spelled Ji wrong again

Ji isn't a predicton becuase of the binary hard code in his grey matter. He's a robot now. If he doesn't complain then it means he didn't hit ctrl+alt+delete yet this morning 

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Yesterday, the 12Z run of both the GFS and Euro yesterday reminded me of the feb 16, 1996 snowstorm that the models didn't do well on until right at the last minute.  Models have improved lots since then but I thought I showed the reanlysis 500 h pattern versus the Euro 500.  Note that on the Euro 500, the trough is actually not as positive tilted and there was a big hint of a 500 circulation near where the 1996 case was.  For those interested,  the 1996 storm gave me 12" and ADW 13 but DC only around 8 or 9.  That was the potential I saw if all went right.  The model 500h patterns have stepped back some.  The 500h from tehe GFS was not that different from the Euro and it did close off a low to our south. 

 

Jan_17_snowstorm_analog.png

jan_17_snowstorm_euro_1.png

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1 minute ago, Ian said:

Same, plus or minus. We'll get some accumulation this week so that's good news. I am chasing avg+. Seriously tho the first part looks like a decent little thing in its own... I could see widespread 1"+ out of that if it works out.. not the most common thing either, so somewhat neat.  This winter has generally given snow lovers all it can locally so far so I remain generally positive about how things are going despite minimal precip etc etc. 

I tried that angle for 48 hours but all it did was make it worse around here. It's time to do the right thing....dump a gallon of 93 octane on the floor and toss a half smoked Marlboro in the middle 

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2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yesterday, the 12Z run of both the GFS and Euro yesterday reminded me of the feb 16, 1996 snowstorm that the models didn't do well on until right at the last minute.  Models have improved lots since then but I thought I showed the reanlysis 500 h pattern versus the Euro 500.  Note that on the Euro 500, the trough is actually not as positive tilted and there was a big hint of a 500 circulation near where the 1996 case was.  For those interested,  the 1996 storm gave me 12" and ADW 13 but DC only around 8 or 9.  That was the potential I saw if all went right.  The model 500h patterns have stepped back some.  The 500h from tehe GFS was not that different from the Euro and it did close off a low to our south. 

 

Jan_17_snowstorm_analog.png

jan_17_snowstorm_euro_1.png

Interesting comparison. I knew nothing of that storm at all. It's a better look than plenty we have had but it also feels a bit more thread the needle than we like around here. It's still not even that hard to envision the shorter term models picking up more of a storm... that mainly jumps us. I am afraid of complicated.. plus I think maybe I am a worse snow forecaster than I used to be for some reason.  

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3 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yesterday, the 12Z run of both the GFS and Euro yesterday reminded me of the feb 16, 1996 snowstorm that the models didn't do well on until right at the last minute.  Models have improved lots since then but I thought I showed the reanlysis 500 h pattern versus the Euro 500.  Note that on the Euro 500, the trough is actually not as positive tilted and there was a big hint of a 500 circulation near where the 1996 case was.  For those interested,  the 1996 storm gave me 12" and ADW 13 but DC only around 8 or 9.  That was the potential I saw if all went right.  The model 500h patterns have stepped back some.  The 500h from tehe GFS was not that different from the Euro and it did close off a low to our south. 

 

Jan_17_snowstorm_analog.png

jan_17_snowstorm_euro_1.png

No wonder you wrote an article lol :)

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I tried that angle for 48 hours but all it did was make it worse around here. It's time to do the right thing....dump a gallon of 93 octane on the floor and toss a half smoked Marlboro in the middle 
That wouldn't actually light the gas from my recollection

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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I know someone said the GFS trended more like the Euro at 6z.  I do not see that at all.  The GFS has been pretty much set in it ways at the H5 level more or less for the last 6 runs.  It never had a closed off low like yesterday 12z Euro.  If anything the Euro moved towards the GFS.

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Just now, Interstate said:

I know someone said the GFS trended more like the Euro at 6z.  I do not see that at all.  The GFS has been pretty much set in it ways at the H5 level more or less for the last 6 runs.  It never had a closed off low like yesterday 12z Euro.  If anything the Euro moved towards the GFS.

The Euro has long had an "overamplification bias" in the mid/long range. I'm not sure it's as real as it once was.. some of these things remain in our minds more than in the real world... but I think we have seen it at times at least this winter.  GFS bias is sort of the other direction at range, so it's tough in a winter like this which probably generally favors a flatter solution (BombCyclone aside) given Nina and so many waves in the flow.  

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