The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Someone check on James please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR with 957mb @ 13z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That warm seclusion helps it maintain strength. All signs point to this becoming asymmetric warm core for a time (maybe long time) and because of that latent heating can help to maintain strength long after upper levels would support strengthening. 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: It's really odd, and difficult to conceptualize. But when we say "cut-off" that's typically in the sense of both the UL jet and thermal gradients simultaneously. In this case, it's almost as though it cuts off twice -- the first time from the UL jet only (around 36N) and the second time from the thermal gradient only (around NS). In this way it intensifies long after it is "cut-off" at H5. How the physical processes work, however is still beyond me at this point... Thanks guys Warm core, as in tropical cyclone mechanics sustaining intensification north of VA/NC...? I'm not gonna pretend to understand the physical processes, how an asymmetric warm core relates to conveyer belt and other mechanics of cold core lows, and how this alters our interpretation of guidance. But much to learn from this system in next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 and so it begins.. 21z down to ~994mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wonder if SREF's can be believable now? SOLID! Plumes have been steadfast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Thanks guys Warm core, as in tropical cyclone mechanics sustaining intensification north of VA/NC...? I'm not gonna pretend to understand the physical processes, how an asymmetric warm core relates to conveyer belt and other mechanics of cold core lows, and how this alters our interpretation of guidance. But much to learn from this system in next 24 hours. Sort of, in the sense that latent heating (convection) is helping to drive the bus for a time. It is a complicated dynamical process, but that’s what models are forecasting to occur. It can happen with the transition of a tropical system (Sandy), or like this can happen when a powerful PV anomaly becomes involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-truecolor-96-1-100 Should be a show for the ages! Thanks, Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Reports of 5-6" coming in from suburbs of Charleston (SC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep Thoughts on amounts for TAN Norton area? Think we hang on to all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs is all over the place with low placement on at 18z wow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Posting to join the feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-truecolor-96-1-100 Should be a show for the ages! Beautiful. This is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Pretty bullish forecast by BOX...that's a large area over 12"....not totally convinced, though certainly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Thoughts on amounts for TAN Norton area? Think we hang on to all snow? Yep I think so. BOX map looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A little concerned that it may be mild like a 34 Fahrenheit snow for a time until after 11 12 o’clock or so. Down in Charleston, SC and other SE locations, the WC has indicated that the colder air came in faster than anticipated according to the models, giving them heavier snow now. Charleston has at least 4 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty bullish forecast by BOX...that's a large area over 12"....not totally convinced, though certainly plausible. Start high and adjust up if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Pretty bullish forecast by BOX...that's a large area over 12"....not totally convinced, though certainly plausible. Yeah not sure I would’ve put the 18 in there, but probably a large area of eight to say 14 with some lollies. You know they’ll be a few lucky spots we always know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Down in Charleston, SC and other SE locations, the WC has indicated that the colder air came in faster than anticipated according to the models, giving them heavier snow now. Charleston has at least 4 inches already. And we see that here all the time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: I remember a 9” snowfall in New Bern, NC. It was rare indeed! Loved that town! 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Down in Charleston, SC and other SE locations, the WC has indicated that the colder air came in faster than anticipated according to the models, giving them heavier snow now. Charleston has at least 4 inches already. My aunt is reporting 7" about 45 miles to NW of Charleston, as they stayed almost all snow. That's up there with 1973 and 1989 territory for that town (both also 7"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS a bit west at 21 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Side note, but since when did I-91 curve torwards the Tolland line south of Springfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any thoughts on 18z RGEM? Continues to be the dry outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I would like to see h7 fronto on gfs, that looks might close to weenie fluff band for litchfield hills to berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z GFS a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow 18z GFS ticked west... Hard to believe but Canadian stuff RGEM / CMC seems the outlier now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 MY Forecast is they will expand the blizzard warnings over most of sne area by later tonight thur morning . totals for inland ct area near 12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS would verify the bottom end of BOX's forecast of 12-18". Someone's gonna do very well in that zone with the frontogenesis magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Kevin gonna love this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Groton/New London to get a bit a sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.