PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'd happily take 1-2" in Wake. 1" is enough to get the kids out and play in! Eastern Wake could easily get 1 inch or more while western wake gets blanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3K NAM says not so fast actually shows more for the triangle area . The 12Z is on top 18Z is on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 18Z is a bigger hit for RDU east than 12Z Hillsborough get's a 1/2' while rdu get's 9. Not sure ive ever seen a cutoff that sharp. This is cray town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Look at the totals though... You don't see that type of storm look down in the South too often. Classic comma shape for mature mid-latitude storm systems. I can't imagine what the rates northwest of the 850mb low is like. Very warm air in the in the mid-levels meeting very cold air means insane lift and forcing. Whoever gets under the deathband is going to have a storm of a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It seems strange watching everything shift slightly east but the 3k Nam going up with totals. Something doesn't feel right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: ITs not done updating.....RDU gonna be 4-6" this run Yes. Apologies for that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: That's my bad. I was looking at the wrong thing. Namnit! I feel a little better now the UK is right there. Has us right at 7mm with sniffing distance to 10-15mm. I would feel a lot better if GFS got a .1” to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Virga will be issue on amounts I would think. So much cold dry air to over come. Generally always takes away the big amounts model shows but jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Hillsborough get's a 1/2' while rdu get's 9. Not sure ive ever seen a cutoff that sharp. This is cray town. Cutoffs suck...this one tomorrow may hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It seems strange watching everything shift slightly east but the 3k Nam going up with totals. Something doesn't feel right. cough 960mb low cough Normally I would scoff at it but damn if it isn't supported by just about everything now....this is probably a 1 or 2 in a lifetime low off Hatteras.....we wont see this likes of this again for a long time....hell has it even ever happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I feel a little better now the UK is right there. Has us right at 7mm with sniffing distance to 10-15mm. I would feel a lot better if GFS got a .1” to us. Come on Pack, you know it’s your turn!! Hope you get a good one! You you deserve it man much time as you put in chasing these model runs play by play which I appreciate good luck!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What about blizzard of 80? How low did it go off our coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Cutoffs suck...this one tomorrow may hurt I remember that storm very well. Stayed cold for two weeks, schools closed for two and a half weeks in Winston Salem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The low is way too far east for big Triangle snow. We're pretty much out of time for a major jump west. So unless this is going to be a bust of epic proportions (i.e. 2000), which is unlikely, given better technology now vs. then, around 1" or so in the Raleigh area is probably the cap. Going to be a nice hit for the coastal plain. Hopefully, some of the coastal areas that don't usually get much snow will cash in. There is going to be a sharp cut off line with this system. There may be a county that gets 5" on the eastern boarder and zero on the western boarder. Wake County could be that county. I've see a few time where there's no snow at my house but it's dumping the snow 10 miles to the SE in Wake Forest. That latest 3k NAM scares me to death. Looks great for me with 7", but shift it 20/30 miles east and I get nothing/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: cough 960mb low cough Normally I would scoff at it but damn if it isn't supported by just about everything now....this is probably a 1 or 2 in a lifetime low off Hatteras.....we wont see this likes of this again for a long time....hell has it even ever happened before. Yeah, that's a good point. It's a little odd that it gets that strong. I've seen more impressive upper level panels than this for systems weaker than this. But hey, it's interesting to behold, no doubt. I'd feel a bit better if we had any other models showing these kinds of totals around here...I'd also like to see that low scootch over and develop about 50 miles to the west or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM upped it's game at 18z. 972 a hair west of it's 12z run. Don't have QPF yet but looks to be sharp cut off like the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just watched a 15 minute live briefing by NWS RAH... had a great discussion and showed simulated precip and soundings. The guy said that he knows that there are models showing western movement and heavier amounts but the NWS feels they are outliers at this point and not going with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, that's a good point. It's a little odd that it gets that strong. I've seen more impressive upper level panels than this for systems weaker than this. But hey, it's interesting to behold, no doubt. I'd feel a bit better if we had any other models showing these kinds of totals around here...I'd also like to see that low scootch over and develop about 50 miles to the west or so. I hope you score a foot or more of snow. Do you count snow days as vacation days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Just watched a 15 minute live briefing by NWS RAH... had a great discussion and showed simulated precip and soundings. The guy said that he knows that there are models showing western movement and heavier amounts but the NWS feels they are outliers at this point and not going with it. Kinda fickle if you ask me. No “rule” to deciding when it’s not an outlier or is. In their minds they have more time before they have to announce anything changed. Reality is we work and need notice to prep. So on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I hope you score a foot or more of snow. Do you count snow days as vacation days? Thanks man. Anything can be counted as a vacation day, as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 You sound like you've reached the bargaining phase lol...Nowiknow that ish just got real. Someone brought out the stages of grief reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gainesville, FL: Alert: @AlachuaSchools says schools will be closed Wednesday and Thursday because of cold weather. #Gainesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What about blizzard of 80? How low did it go off our coast?I lived here then. We got 25" in KECG. If I remember correctly it was a 990mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Winter Storm Warnings all the way to the Florida Gulf Coaast. Not very often does that occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: I remember that storm very well. Stayed cold for two weeks, schools closed for two and a half weeks in Winston Salem Yep, my favorite storm as a kid. Ran the sleds so many times down a big hill nearby it turned into a bobsled run basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, tramadoc said: 23 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said: What about blizzard of 80? How low did it go off our coast? I lived here then. We got 25" in KECG. If I remember correctly it was a 990mb low. Yeah it was nothing to special it just hung out for a day and a half......be nice to get this one to stick around 6-12 extra hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 WeatherTAP @weatherTAP 31m31 minutes ago Even the Outer Banks of North Carolina are now under winter storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah it was nothing to special it just hung out for a day and a half......be nice to get this one to stick around 6-12 extra hrs.... We would have to see blizzard warnings for our northern coastal areas if that's the case. You would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 rgem looks to have come in a small bit west with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Can I officially buy in now in horry county? Myrtle beach to be exact. I’m trying to hold back because we are famous to just get sleet at the last minute but that 3k nam has close to 3 inches on the beach and those of us a tad inland on line of 4-5+ inches. 3k nam is pretty accurate for the most part inside 24 hours right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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