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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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4 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Can I officially buy in now in horry county?  Myrtle beach to be exact.  I’m trying to hold back because we are famous to just get sleet at the last minute but that 3k nam has close to 3 inches on the beach and those of us a tad inland on line of 4-5+ inches.  3k nam is pretty accurate for the most part inside 24 hours right?

I am willing to bet a large sum of Bitcoin that the warmnose gets Horry.

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5 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Can I officially buy in now in horry county?  Myrtle beach to be exact.  I’m trying to hold back because we are famous to just get sleet at the last minute but that 3k nam has close to 3 inches on the beach and those of us a tad inland on line of 4-5+ inches.  3k nam is pretty accurate for the most part inside 24 hours right?

I say MB is in a great spot. You are actually further west than spots in coastal.NC. which means a lesser chance of a warm nose. Just a guess though.

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6 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Tired of these runs that shift a stronger SLP closer to the coast and cut back on QPF.  This should have been better QPF on the RGEM.

dCeqrWO.gif

It may come down to which model is best handling how the dry air is going to impact the precipitation.

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7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

RGEM is literally only 50 miles or so off the perfect snow track for RDU.

Never easy...the only thing keeping this from being bigger is the SLP is trucking.  Keep thinking that pretty much any coastal I remember the deform band is always slightly NW of where it's modeled.  But that's weeniecasting at it's best.  

snku_acc.us_ma.png

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19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah it was nothing to special it just hung out for a day and a half......be nice to get this one to stick around 6-12 extra hrs....

 

Being that you live pretty close to me what do you think thabout chances are of this being mostly sleet or freezing rain in Washington. I know now that the models are showing that we are going to get the precip we need but that isn’t the whole story.  I’ve seen it happen before but I have limited knowledge when it comes down to this sort of thing. 

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19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah it was nothing to special it just hung out for a day and a half......be nice to get this one to stick around 6-12 extra hrs....

 

Being that you live pretty close to me what do you think thabout chances are of this being mostly sleet or freezing rain in Washington. I know now that the models are showing that we are going to get the precip we need but that isn’t the whole story.  I’ve seen it happen before but I have limited knowledge when it comes down to this sort of thing. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

12km NAM whiffs and now this, running out of time for anymore big shifts though...

 

we have been screwed plenty of times within 24hrs of a storm and with the lp forecasted to deepen so much offshore there are likely still a few wrinkles left in this one.

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