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Winter 2017-18 banter thread


WeatherFeen2000

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We continue with the big pattern swings which have defined our weather going back to late August. Arctic cold until a few days after New Year's followed by a temperature rebound around the 7th.

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Not according to the latest GFS there isn’t a January thaw according to the GFS 6z. We’ll see though because that model usually acts erratically at times. It will warm up a bit but that doesn’t mean we cant get snow. It will moderate is the word I’m looking for. Let’s see what happens!

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By the latest EURO WEEKLIES we better get our snowstorms in before Jan. 13.   Nothing but a monotonous above normal pressure pattern sets up for the eastern most third of the country.   This probably cuts out a Miller A type event after mid-Jan. and leaves overrunning events in play I suppose.

I am afraid the 7-Day Temp. Anomaly takes the same route at the same time frame.  

GFS 5-day chunks like this very same path and times.  

Snowiest part of winter  1/20---2/10 looks DOA right now.

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I think the best thing to do right now is expect cold and dry. If things follow the seasonal trend and keep backing west until the last second it will be a pleasant surprise. We have been so spoiled the last few years with threading threading the needle at every opportunity. It was only a matter of time that we see things act normal.  Back in the 80s we would have resigned our selves to a cold dry period on the way.

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think the best thing to do right now is expect cold and dry. If things follow the seasonal trend and keep backing west until the last second it will be a pleasant surprise. We have been so spoiled the last few years with threading threading the needle at every opportunity. It was only a matter of time that we see things act normal.  Back in the 80s we would have resigned our selves to a cold dry period on the way.

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw little additional snowfall this winter, it has a very 80s feel. We got lucky earlier this month but now it's cold and dry before the big thaw. 

I don't see why whatever happens Saturday will trend west when theres a massive polar airmass in place with the source of the Arctic cold nearby. 

I wonder if this winter will join 11/12 or 07/08 as one of the least snowiest since 2000. The weeklies look very poor after Jan 7 and La Nina winters get warmer as we roll into February. 

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38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw little additional snowfall this winter, it has a very 80s feel. We got lucky earlier this month but now it's cold and dry before the big thaw. 

I don't see why whatever happens Saturday will trend west when theres a massive polar airmass in place with the source of the Arctic cold nearby. 

I wonder if this winter will join 11/12 or 07/08 as one of the least snowiest since 2000. The weeklies look very poor after Jan 7 and La Nina winters get warmer as we roll into February. 

That was definitly not my point. I was referring strictly to the fact that this coming period appears cold and dry. To say the whole winter will be is foolish. This isn’t the 80s for a million reasons. The whole climate system has changed. Based on the good start I see no reason this isn’t an above normal snowfall winter. The coming “break” is not a done deal. In fact I think we stand a better chance at snow chances when things relax. Having the TPV so close this week is a bad thing for snow that’s the only thing that’s a given.  

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