Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

There goes Leo worrying about pattern collapses before they even set in. 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I got a question for the Mets in here does this major pattern change look like a 1 week change? 2 week? 3 weeks or longer?. Does it go back to the Mid November Zonal pattern?. Just wondering, what your thoughts are?. 

Leo, you worry amazingly a lot for someone with your snow climo.  You can survive all kinds of patterns the rest of us can’t.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I got a question for the Mets in here does this major pattern change look like a 1 week change? 2 week? 3 weeks or longer?. Does it go back to the Mid November Zonal pattern?. Just wondering, what your thoughts are?. 

Stratospheric PV gets knocked around pretty good...that combined with the ensembles/week 3 of the weeklies tells me that it won't be a very fast flip back to zonal. I'd be surprised if it were just a 8-10 day shift.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There goes Leo worrying about pattern collapses before they even set in. 

Poor Leo. Long nights and arctic waters with no snow can take a toll.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Leo, you worry amazingly a lot for someone with your snow climo.  You can survive all kinds of patterns the rest of us can’t.

The valium dosage he would need if he lived in SNE. Lordamercy.

[dendrite]

Front is through. We drop. No thundersnow here though.

44.9F -SHRA

[Tom12309]

Replying in the banter thread to comments in the model thread about not wanting a stretch of dry cold in December - I don't know how old I was but it was in the 70s when I was growing up in central Vermont and I remember one year where it was really really cold one December.  I spent school vacation taking my hockey skates and going for long walks to find every pond I could and go skating on them.  Just something different.  I remember seeing my brother drive past one place I was at and the cloud of frozen dust his car kicked up off the dirt road hung in the air for fifteen minutes.  Why it resonates is that winter when it started to snow, it seemed like we got snow every 3 -5 days for the next two months. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Well, Not to rain on your parade, But you look to have more folks on the board crash the party over the next couple weeks.................

I hope so!  Spread the love.  

[tamarack]

It's the central Mass. school of measurement.  I think the guy in Lunenburg still uses it.  You sweep and measure so there is no compaction and just add the numbers up for the total.  Why bother actually taking a measurement for a daily amount?

I call it the Fort Kent method - check the snowstake.  If snow is deeper than yesterday, record difference as 24-hour snowfall.  task completed.  Although that explains how FK averages about 20% less snow than CAR when experience notes that they actually get more, it doesn't cover how 27.3" snowfall can boost pack by 28" despite two well above freezing events totaling 1.7" RA doesn't settle the snow at all.

re: The Manning benching.  Maybe it's coaches with jobs on the line getting ridiculously desperate, replacing mid-level QBs with ones either unable or untested (Bills), hoping to strike gold in a dumpster.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Tom12309 said:

Replying in the banter thread to comments in the model thread about not wanting a stretch of dry cold in December - I don't know how old I was but it was in the 70s when I was growing up in central Vermont and I remember one year where it was really really cold one December.  I spent school vacation taking my hockey skates and going for long walks to find every pond I could and go skating on them.  Just something different.  I remember seeing my brother drive past one place I was at and the cloud of frozen dust his car kicked up off the dirt road hung in the air for fifteen minutes.  Why it resonates is that winter when it started to snow, it seemed like we got snow every 3 -5 days for the next two months. 

My guess is Dec 1976...really cold December that year. Not a whole lot of snow either until late in the month and esp January.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Seems like a great time to buy GASL (stock symbol)

Should see a very nice run over next 2-3weeks even if it shakes down from 21 now to 19 in next day or two

Will...?

[CoastalWx]

Too bad if nobody bought NatGas last week. Not that I did..but it spiked.

[dryslot]

Of course it did on the speculation going forward, Home heating oil will follow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Too bad nobody bought NatGas last week. Not that I did..but it spiked.

The ETF's that i looked at have Not had the corresponding spike.

GASL looks ready to rocket next 14-20days

 

[tamarack]

Gust front just passed thru Augusta, maybe 30 mph so NBD, with a bit of RA to follow. 

Ancient history, but while I was traveling (early 23rd-late 28th) the bucket caught 0.01" precip, high temp was 46 (Sat?) and low was 5, date unknown.  Wind blew the cover off the grill, so there must've been a bit of wx.  None in NJ - rain free, almost cloud free, temps 20 to 60.  Great wx for leaf raking, and the grandkids and their dad built a "leaf-tepee" by packing leaves around a cone of sticks.  Structure was about 7' tall and 4' wide, with a small entry hole at the base and room inside for two kiddoes, barely.  Also had a 30" high fortress in front, a wall of packed leaves.

[dendrite]

CON 61F. Down to 38.7F at the casa.

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have found more and more discrepancies, looks like that was the way they did things

I have zero clue how they input the data at NCEI, but I know it's an act of congress to get data changed (we're trying to backfill obs at MHT to get records for instance). 

I do find that oftentimes the snow depth data is cumulative instead of a natural compaction/melt off. I don't know if back in the day, in the absence of data they just added up the snowfall to get the depth?

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

man, this thing's a pig on satellite - the front

Not bad, 40 kt gusts at PSM and DAW, 39 at CON. 3-4 mb pressure rises just behind it.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I have zero clue how they input the data at NCEI, but I know it's an act of congress to get data changed (we're trying to backfill obs at MHT to get records for instance). 

I do find that oftentimes the snow depth data is cumulative instead of a natural compaction/melt off. I don't know if back in the day, in the absence of data they just added up the snowfall to get the depth?

The HFD obs Steve posted actually had snow depth data in the raw form (albeit in tenths of an inch). Yet somehow it ends up online as cumulative.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I have zero clue how they input the data at NCEI, but I know it's an act of congress to get data changed (we're trying to backfill obs at MHT to get records for instance). 

I do find that oftentimes the snow depth data is cumulative instead of a natural compaction/melt off. I don't know if back in the day, in the absence of data they just added up the snowfall to get the depth?

We had the F6 data reconstructed for ORH between 1995-2002 and we still couldn't get it into the NCDC database. Hopefully another attempt is successful in the future. I guess they'd rather have zeros or clearly wrong snowfall data.

 

I still have all the F6 electronic files stored when the day comes....

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stratospheric PV gets knocked around pretty good...that combined with the ensembles/week 3 of the weeklies tells me that it won't be a very fast flip back to zonal. I'd be surprised if it were just a 8-10 day shift.

With the tendency for blocking to hang on longer than modeled too, I would say the consistency/consensus we're seeing argues that way.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Too bad if nobody bought NatGas last week. Not that I did..but it spiked.

screw that I wish I had bought Bitcoin back in 12

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The HFD obs Steve posted actually had snow depth data in the raw form (albeit in tenths of an inch). Yet somehow it ends up online as cumulative.

That I can't explain. Like I don't even know if these are scanned and then QCed (or not), or if someone hand typed all this. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had the F6 data reconstructed for ORH between 1995-2002 and we still couldn't get it into the NCDC database. Hopefully another attempt is successful in the future. I guess they'd rather have zeros or clearly wrong snowfall data.

 

I still have all the F6 electronic files stored when the day comes....

I have a sneaking suspicion that this is not a top priority within the gov't, nor will it be anytime soon. Everybody loves to talk about records, but this treads a little too close to climate. In that sense they are right to keep that data held tight, but it's not like you did this project with BOX last year. That should've been plenty of time to review and update the observations.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

My guess is Dec 1976...really cold December that year. Not a whole lot of snow either until late in the month and esp January.

Sophomore at URI, long cold walks across the quad that winter

[dryslot]

I guess the front just blew through here with a shower as the street lights came on about a half hour ago and the temp dropped -11°F to 42°F

[CoastalWx]

61 for the high. Wow. Now we drop. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

61 for the high. Wow. Now we drop. 

not making a comment or insinuation to anything but ... still a fail in my o - 

the models, the Euro in particular ...granted outside their wheelhouses were bangin out like 3 days of near +20 or something.  

i was mentioning to Will and still believe it to be the case, just how much that hearkened back to time after time after time all summer ... big heat/ridge roll outs would do this and end up being a day or less warm sector slice before a fropa. 

i just find it interesting that here we are sans that seasons and making inroads into winter and that particular plague is still infecting - haha.  in any case, interesting -

[Lava Rock]

I guess the front just blew through here with a shower as the street lights came on about a half hour ago and the temp dropped -11°F to 42°F

Hi of 55. Now at 41

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not making a comment or insinuation to anything but ... still a fail in my o - 

the models, the Euro in particular ...granted outside their wheelhouses were bangin out like 3 days of near +20 or something.  

i was mentioning to Will and still believe it to be the case, just how much that hearkened back to time after time after time all summer ... big heat/ridge roll outs would do this and end up being a day or less warm sector slice before a fropa. 

i just find it interesting that here we are sans that seasons and making inroads into winter and that particular plague is still infecting - haha.  in any case, interesting -

Today was the 3rd warmest 11/29 on record for CON. Not bad for a 150 year period of record.

[CoastalWx]

Today over achieved a bit, but that's common for MOS to be low with these setups. I agree with john that the duration certainly was reduced from how it looked last week. At least locally. The CONUS has been very warm.