Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Stunning late fall day in the valley.   A little bit breezy but 50° in the sun and only need a sweatshirt.

[Lava Rock]

53.5f and climbing

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

53.5f and climbing

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

 Yeah, bank thermometer in Northampton says 54° 

[dendrite]

55.0F so far. Gorgeous.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

read more before you post

??

[CoastalWx]

Fake upslope crying for mama.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fake upslope crying for mama.

We are hogging all the weather.  Now I've got snow and thunder in town.  Can't believe we've had two of these so far in November.  Exciting FROPAs.

Multiple close lightning strikes.  Whole mountain on hold. 

Second thundersnow event of November so far.

Verizon is out, thinking their tower might have gotten smoked.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Multiple close lightning strikes.  Whole mountain on hold. 

Second thundersnow event of November so far.

Verizon is out, thinking their tower might have gotten smoked.

Cool...some of the weenies at work commented on this like 2 min ago. Like 5 strikes at once. Maybe multiple forks.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

??

raw COOP data = okay
Final product = fail

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cool...some of the weenies at work commented on this like 2 min ago. Like 5 strikes at once. Maybe multiple forks.

Getting graupel at home the size of peas it seems like.  Doesn't look like hail though...more just massive dippin' dots.

Tim Kelley sending me pics of them in the weather lab at work drooling over radar and web cam.  This stuff gets folks stoked.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Getting graupel at home the size of peas it seems like.  Doesn't look like hail though...more just massive dippin' dots.

Not that far off from how it forms...but yeah probably massive rime on flakes. That's pretty cool.  Looks like it's unstable if you can saturate deep enough on the soundings. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

raw COOP data = okay
Final product = fail

I dunno...just going by whatever that is. 

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...just going by whatever that is. 

Please remember that Steve is very sensitive to the integrity of his scrolls.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Please remember that Steve is very sensitive to the integrity of his scrolls.

Yeah I could care less about that.

[Typhoon Tip]

solid snow storm on Hawaii

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I could care less about that.

You care less about accuracy? Interesting, Brian noted that the final product that you and others see has like 45 inches OTG at ORH in Dec 1945 when in fact it was like 10 to a max of 24. Nice to see a pro not caring about facts, based on what i am seeing going through COOP data and comparing Now and Climod  data seems a lot of pros feel the same way you do.

[Baroclinic Zone]

61F

[Baroclinic Zone]

Is accuracy of "snow on the ground" that important?

[Typhoon Tip]

man, this thing's a pig on satellite - the front

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You care less about accuracy? Interesting, Brian noted that the final product that you and others see has like 45 inches OTG at ORH in Dec 1945 when in fact it was like 10 to a max of 24. Nice to see a pro not caring about facts, based on what i am seeing going through COOP data and comparing Now and Climod  data seems a lot of pros feel the same way you do.

I care about getting a forecast right. I could care less if a weenie from the 40s didn't measure correctly. 

[CoastalWx]

Torch outside. Lots of burly men in short sleeves.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We are hogging all the weather.  Now I've got snow and thunder in town.  Can't believe we've had two of these so far in November.  Exciting FROPAs.

Multiple close lightning strikes.  Whole mountain on hold. 

Second thundersnow event of November so far.

Verizon is out, thinking their tower might have gotten smoked.

Well, Not to rain on your parade, But you look to have more folks on the board crash the party over the next couple weeks.................

[WxBlue]

Crazy how we're approaching to 60 when a town 150 miles away is dealing with thundersnow.

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I care about getting a forecast right. I could care less if a weenie from the 40s didn't measure correctly. 

In Steve's defense we talk a lot about climo and snow from past years here and it does kinda suck that our data records are so bad. Lots of missing data days that clearly existed, made up depth obs, the late 90s snow obs disaster, etc.

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I care about getting a forecast right. I could care less if a weenie from the 40s didn't measure correctly. 

Lol you don't understand the subject. These are Co-op observers putting in correct data and then Gov't hacks inputting wrong data into official forms. So Sultan of Snark you should care.

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Crazy how we're approaching to 60 when a town 150 miles away is dealing with thundersnow.

Wait until spring when we're 75F and the picnic tables are getting plastered at 3k.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I experienced thundersnow with lighting in 2005 at Snowbird/Alta’s summit. It freaked me out, tbh. Felt like I was being struck, right on top of me. We skied down but like a fagina, i was shook. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you don't understand the subject. These are Co-op observers putting in correct data and then Gov't hacks inputting wrong data into official forms. So Sultan of Snark you should care.

Well I had no idea what you were referring to, so there ya go. Govt FTL. 

[tamarack]

On ‎11‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 5:25 PM, Isotherm said:

Wonder if there is any validity to the hypothesis that the frigid nights "shocked" the trees. Most red oaks are fully leafed here, but finally brown. Latest I've ever seen by 10+ days. Normally we're 95% down by early November. @tamarack

I've never heard that thesis before, but I agree that leaf retention is wildly abnormal this fall, though the sticks are appropriately bare in my foothills locale.  Driving south on T-day, I first noted that excess leafiness in Augusta, where the oaks held perhaps 1/3 of their foliage.  That increased steadily until we dropped off the ORH plateau toward the Pike, at which point it seemed like oaks held about 75% of summer leaf load.  That stayed about the same all the way to our destination in SNJ, where, oddly, the kids' yard was mostly sticks.  The sweetgum had maybe 1/3 and the Norway maple - unsurprisingly - had most of its dull brownish things, while maples, a honeylocust, and the one oak were almost bare.  Along the drive, even some maples, tulip poplars, and sycamores still had significant foliage.  Going back before the fall of the dinosaurs, my recollection is that trees in NNJ were largely bare by the small game opener on the 1st Saturday of November.  A warming climate certainly is a factor, though my earliest hunting memories date to the 1950s, which were pretty mild as well.  As far as oak differences, up here at least the (rather scarce) white oak group generally holds leaves longer than the reds, with pin oak (red oak group) a leafy exception.  And I'm sure that genetics play a part in intraspecific differences.  What effect gypsy moth feeding has, I've no idea - my 1970s obs (only G-M outbreak in which I lived in the midst) weren't very scientific.

This is the 4th or 5th story of this happening I've read this fall in the northeast (NH, ME, PA etc) , luckily not all of them involved death but still...how do you shoot at something that you aren't sure what it is?  The hunter was after sun-down, so he's probably screwed there.  At least he realized his mistake and called 911 while providing what medical care he could. 

Last I recall, there are some 15 million or so people licensed as hunters (though not all deserve the respect of that label) in the US.  Unfortunately, in a population that large there will always be a number of folks who either are numbingly careless or just don't care.  It's somewhat similar to drivers who act as if they're the only ones on the road, and that can have tragic results as well.  As long as we have firearms and cars (and boats and snowsleds and bicycles and and and...) there will be some "accidents". 

Revising laws to hold such numbnuts accountable is a must, even though it's usually an after-the-fact solution.  It took an amazingly ludicrous event to spur Maine to enact its target identification/hunter responsibility law, almost 30 years ago.  On a foggy deer season opener, 3 hunters were in a field in Richmond (I might have been hunting near there had I not had another engagement that day) and claimed to have passed their scoped rifle from person to person for positive ID before one pulled the trigger.  250+ yards away, a hunter wearing an orange coat but not an orange hat (that also became mandatory within the Maine ID law) was badly injured as the bullet passed through his abdomen, fortunately missing things like spine and major blood vessels.  He spent 5 weeks in hospital.  What IMO puts the absolute lie to the shooter's story is that none of the 3 guys had an any-deer tag!  They had to see antlers before they could make a legal shot, and they could not see an orange coat?  Give me a break!  At least this time the shooter spent some jail time (under laws pre-dating the later-enacted hunter ID law) and lost his hunting privileges (one hopes forever, but IDK.)

[leo2000]

I got a question for the Mets in here does this major pattern change look like a 1 week change? 2 week? 3 weeks or longer?. Does it go back to the Mid November Zonal pattern?. Just wondering, what your thoughts are?.