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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had.

 

I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. 

I think this is just a continuation of the next level of record warmth we have been experiencing since the super el Nino in 2015. We are on track for the warmest 3 falls in a row since 2005,2006, and 2007.

warmest falls on record at LGA

59e0d47181367_Screenshot2017-10-13at10_52_42AM.png.f089e8ce54159e26d276bde1474e937b.png

 

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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had.

 

I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. 

 

Hurricanes themselves are redistribution engines. They utilize potential energy in the tropical oceans, convert it to heat release via robust convective processes, and subsequently transfer the heat energy poleward. However, hurricanes cannot "create energy" - they're not a radiative forcing in and of themselves. Internal variability within Earth's weather patterns modulate the distribution of heat but do not create it; an exogenous mechanism is necessitated for that.

So in short, no, hurricanes are not responsible for the very warm fall pattern, and yes, the upper level flow does direct the track of tropical cyclones.

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35 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Hurricanes themselves are redistribution engines. They utilize potential energy in the tropical oceans, convert it to heat release via robust convective processes, and subsequently transfer the heat energy poleward.

That's pretty much exactly what I was going to answer. I think of hurricanes as one of the mechanisms that helps to balance out the temperatures on a hemispheric scale. They transport heat poleward making room for cooler air to sink back into that spot and get recycled. I know that's a simplistic read on the action but simple is all I've got ;) 

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What what a furnace on the gfs. This weekend will torch, they'll be a brief cool down Mon-Tue and then we torch the rest of the week through next weekend. 

I don't buy a late October cool down, this month will beat 2007. 

The long range GFS runs have been inconsistent. I am still thinking a late month cool down, but no confidence yet. It will feel cooler just with getting later in the fall season.

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the winter of 1954-55 was lacking in the snow dept...the winter ave temp was 34.0...long term ave is 33.5...it had only 11.5" of snow...other years that were colder with much less snow than average were...long term snowfall ave is 28.3"...

winter.....temp.....snowfall

1930-31...33.8.....11.6"

1941-42...32.9.....11.3"

1958-59...30.9.....13.0"

1961-62...33.3.....18.1"

1962-63...30.0.....16.3"

1967-68...31.3.....19.5"

1970-71...32.1.....15.5"

1980-81...32.7.....19.4"

1985-86...33.4.....13.0"

since 1986 a cold winter had at least average snowfall or much more...

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