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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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21 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

We loose satelite and cable when it clouds up good in my neck of the woods while these jokers still have WiFi during a cat 5. 

Undersea cables

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The island slowed the storm down a lot.  3 hrs ago I thought it'd be halfway to PR by now.

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3 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Undersea cables

Neat, thnx guys that explains. Saw some photos today one of our Navy planes took flying over Barbados. Hate too see the ones from this place, espeacilly timber going up those east facing peeks. 

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Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Is there a reason why the recon flights won't fly into the eye while its over land?

Turbulence is a major issue over land. Also, over land terrain interaction is a risk.  It's a common policy for them to not fly in over land.  In this case it's even more of a terrain issue than usual due to the 4500foot peaks on the island.

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1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Omg I can't believe I am hearing this. Someone said on the radio station to open the window because of the pressure difference. I'm thinking to myself whatever you do do not open the window!

The "advantage" of keeping windows and doors open during a hurricane is a persistent myth...don't do it.  

https://www.inverse.com/article/36275-opening-window-hurricane-physics

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1 minute ago, yourchoice said:

This talk show out of Antigua is doing a good job covering Maria. Playing clips of Dominica station before they went off air.

http://radio.garden/live/saint-johns/antiguaobserver/

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

The eye is determined to hit every portion of this small island, now going up the middle. The only part that might not come into direct contact is the far southwest portion of the island.

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Just now, Coopdog said:

The eye is determined to hit every portion of this small island, now going up the middle. The only part that might not come into direct contact is the far southwest portion of the island.

That northward wobble is terrible for the island. 

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_mart_mf_com.html

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass
from northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to
0000 UTC.  The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the
northwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity.  Raw objective
T-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the
center moved over land.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed
was increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that
intensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight
weakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane
passed over Dominica.  Since the center has moved over land, the
aircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye.
The aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be
able to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of
Dominica.

Maria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear
and over warm water during the next couple of days.  Given these
favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to
remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are
possible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles.  Land
interaction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some
gradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic
in 3 to 4 days.

Maria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt.  A weak ridge
located over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the
hurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the
center of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  After that time, the western portion
of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn
northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5.  The track
guidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the
NHC track forecast through 72 hours.  At days 4 and 5, the global
model envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast
was adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP
correct consensus and ECMWF model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that
island.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.5N  61.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.1N  62.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.0N  64.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 17.9N  65.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 18.7N  66.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 20.5N  69.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 22.8N  71.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 25.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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The thought that the hospital didn't evac and all those people thinking a cat 3 and boom a cat 5 explodes ... sick to my stomach right now .. not expecting any good news tomorrow . This could honestly be one of the worst direct hits EVER 

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Now the eye is going to need to drop back south or shoot out due west for the wind trajectory to work.  Those west winds hitting the island are going to  have to curl.

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2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Very sad. Humans in dire situations

I really hope we do not have the same situation out of San Juan, PR home to 3 million... love tracking these but this is downright scary as I have family there and probably many on this board as well.... pray for all!!

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The windward side of Dominica is home to what's essentially an Indian reservation for the last Caribs, the indigenous people of the windwards before colonization.  There's only a few thousand of them, but they're dirt poor, their housing is crap, and they just ate a cat 5.    Hope things aren't as bad there as I fear.

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At this time, Hurricane Maria remains on course to potentially threaten the mainland U.S. after punishing Dominica as a Category 5 storm and later Puerto Rico (likely as a Category 4 hurricane). A compromise position between historical climatology (52% probability of U.S. landfall and 60% with southern track outliers excluded) and the lower probability shown on the ensembles and operational ECMWF/GFS remains reasonable right now due to considerable uncertainty beyond 72 hours. Hence, there's little reason for me to change my thinking from a 40% probability of landfall.

Jose's fate will likely determine, in large part, Maria's fate. Both the EPS and GEFS are in strong agreement about the development of a 500 mb ridging in eastern North America that closely resembles that which was in place when Dennis (1999) completed an anti-cyclonic loop to make landfall in North Carolina as a tropical storm.

The big difference is that the EPS has a much more pronounced circulation around Jose than the GEFS. Should Jose maintain a strong and expansive circulation, it will likely contribute to Maria's remaining offshore even as it heads westward for at least a time. A weaker and less expansive circulation would likely result in Maria's posing a much greater threat of landfall with perhaps both systems being swept westward for a time. 

The operational ECMWF and GFS closely resemble their ensemble means. Not surprisingly, even as the ECMWF sends Maria out into the open Atlantic and away from the U.S. East Coast, the GFS has a much closer call with Maria approaching the North Carolina coast just before it turns out to sea. 

For now, Jose's fate remains uncertain. Therefore, neither the out-to-sea nor U.S. East Coast landfall scenarios can be written off just yet.

Note: The GEFS is the 18z run, not the 12z run.

HurricaneMaria09182017.jpg

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